AFC NORTH
Cincinnati Bengals
2009 Record: 10-6 (1st, lost in Wild Card round)
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 7-9
Key Additions: WR Terrell Owens, TE Jermaine Gresham
Outlook: The Bengals came out of nowhere to win the rough-and-tumble AFC North, but sputtered down the stretch and were handled easily by the Jets in the playoffs. Marvin Lewis has built a very sturdy defense, but much like his old Ravens teams scoring continues to be a problem. After finishing dead-last in points in 2008 the Bengals improved, but only to 22nd in scoring. Cedric Benson ended up being a pleasant surprise at RB and is now a key component of the Cincy offense…but the passing game was simply not up to standard in 2009. Carson Palmer took care of the football, but barely completed 60% of his passes and gained less than 3000 yards. The front office brought in T.O. and drafted Gresham to try to improve the passing game, but my concern is that Palmer may never be what he was before. Also, can TO and Ochocinco coexist? How much does Owens have left at 35 years old?
Defensively there’s a lot to like here – after week 7 only one team passed for more than 200 yards against the Bengals, and only six teams ran for more than 100 yards (although four of those came in the last five games). This unit has gelled and I look for them to be a top unit for a few years now. They aren’t dominant or flashy, but they are effective. Given that, I don’t see a huge step back for the Bengals, but two factors play against Cincy: a tough division and a first-place schedule. They went 6-0 in the division last season, and that’s simply not going to happen again…and playing the Colts and Chargers along with the NFC South and AFC East. Their closing stretch is brutal, with trips to the Jets, Steelers, and Ravens and home games vs. the Chargers and Saints. Cincy needs to be 7-3 heading into that stretch to have a chance at the playoffs, but I don’t see it – I think they will fall to .500 as regression takes its toll.
Baltimore Ravens
2009 Record: 9-7 (2nd)
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 11-5
Key Additions: WR Anquan Boldin, rookie DE Sergio
Outlook: Baltimore underperformed their talent last year, outscoring their opponents by 130 points yet finishing 9-7. Their offense was very inconsistent, gaining 390+ yards five times but being held under 300 six times, including both playoff games. In addition, they were a great rushing team but were 0-6 when held under 100 yards rushing – now I know in a prior article I mentioned that the pass is more important than the run, and for most teams I believe that is true, but the Ravens are an old-fashioned, use the run to set up the pass type of team and they HAVE to run to be effective. Having said that, I believe the offense will be more consistent in 2010 – Joe Flacco is now a seasoned, third year QB and should continue to improve. Boldin gives the team two good wideouts for the first time in recent memory, and Ray Rice might be the best all-purpose back in the game. The worry is that Derrick Mason is aging and might lose effectiveness, and if Rice loses time to injury the team will struggle to rush effectively. Overall, though, I’m bullish on the offense this year.
Defensively, I’m less sold. Losing Ed Reed to injury will affect the Ravens like losing Polamalu hurt the Steelers a year ago – Reed is the glue in that secondary, and they will likely have to play ‘safer’ coverages without him. Even once he returns, he is now 32, Ray Lewis is 35, NT Kelly Gregg is 34, and sack leader Trevor Pryce is 35 – overall the defense is definitely aging. Baltimore drafted Kindle and DT Terrance Cody to inject life into the front seven, and that was a wise move but time will tell if it helps in 2010. I think the Ravens will score over 400 points in 2010 for the first time in their history, but I also thing the defense will allow over 300. In the end, I think the Ravens have the talent to win the AFC North, albeit with only an 11-5 record due to a rough schedule.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2009 Record: 8-8
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 11-5
Key Additions: C Maurkice Pouncey, T Flozell Adams, CB Bryant McFadden
Outlook: Injuries doomed the Steelers – losing Polamalu and Aaron Smith left holes no one could fill, and the defense gave up a lot of big plays and slipped from 1st to 12th in points allowed. You’ve heard about the tumultuous offseason, and the resulting ouster of Santonio Holmes and suspension of Big Ben. We’ll debate the relative merits of the suspension and the Holmes trade another time – today we focus on what that will mean for 2010. Obviously the first four games will be a major test with Ben out and Dennis Dixon taking the reins. Dixon brings mobility and a strong arm to the table, but he won’t make nearly as many big plays. Look for the Steelers to lean heavily on Rashard Mendenhall while Ben is out. Mike Wallace’s great rookie season allowed the Steelers to confidently dump Holmes, and Heath Miller has become a fine 2-way tight end. The questions revolve around the age of Hines Ward, the effectiveness of the line (although Pouncey has looked so good they are comparing him to Dermontti Dawson already), and those Ben-less games.
Defensively, the Steelers should rebound as long as Polamalu stays healthy. Still only 29, it’s reasonable to expect a few more good seasons from him. Pittsburgh wisely drafted ‘hybrid’ defensive ends who they hope will make great 3-4 linebackers – with James Farrior now 35 and James Harrison 32, soon they will be gone. Second-year DT Ziggy Hood should make progress and help spell Smith and Casey Hampton on the D-line. Overall I expect a moderate bounceback for the defense.
If the Steelers can forge a 2-2 record without Ben, I can see them going 8-4 with him and making the playoffs as a wild-card. If they go 1-3 or 0-4 (unlikely with Tampa as an opponent), the season will be over before Ben even takes the field. I think they might even sneak out a 3-1 record without him, and I’m going to predict a 10-6 season for the black and gold.
Cleveland Browns
2009 Record: 5-11
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 6-10
Key Additions: QB Jake Delhomme, RB Montario Hardesty (out for season), CB Joe Haden
Outlook: Another dull year upcoming for the Dawgs, I’m afraid. Gone are QBs Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn, in comes Colt McCoy, the next ‘franchise’ QB. In the meantime, the Browns turn the reins over to turnover-prone Delhomme, who took a playoff-caliber team to 8-8 through a bevy of interceptions (of course Anderson threw 10 picks and only 3 TDs, so maybe Delhomme is an upgrade!). The Browns also cannot catch a break – Hardesty was drafted to step right into the starting RB role, but was injured in preseason and is on IR. The offense has the best left tackle in football…and not much else right now. They scored only 245 points in ’09 including six games under 10 points – look for a similar performance this season.
Defensively the Browns were pretty bad as well – they gave up less than 400 points, but were next-to-last in yards allowed. Haden was drafted to be a shutdown corner, and if he lives up to that billing it will be a HUGE help to a rather porous secondary. Cleveland did generate 40 sacks, but gave up way too many big plays through the air – and against the pass, they were gouged all season. Cleveland fans will point to their 4-game winning streak to end ’09; I’d point out that aside from the Steelers, each of their opponents was a bad team, and in three of the four wins the Browns passed for under 100 yards! With a harder schedule in 2010, I see the Browns becoming perhaps the worst team in the AFC. 3-13 for Cleveland, and unless McCoy is the real deal I see no end in sight for Cleveland.
AFC WEST
San Diego Chargers
2009 Record: 13-3 (1st)
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 11-5
Key Additions: RB Ryan Mathews, CB Nathan Vasher
Outlook: the Chargers have established themselves as a consistently strong offense – they have scored over 400 points and finished in the top-5 in scoring each of the last six years. QB Philip rivers is now an upper-echelon QB, and 2009 proved that beyond any doubt – with no running game to speak of, Rivers passed the Chargers to a 13-3 record. He should get more help from on the ground with the import of Mathews, whom the Bolts traded up to draft. The ground game has to improve, because they finished 31st in rushing yards and DEAD LAST in yards per carry – a stat that shows how far Tomlinson fell, and also how much less important the run game is in the modern NFL. In any case, the only offensive worry I see in SD is a very thin corps of receivers – with the departure of Vincent Jackson, there simply isn’t a lot of proven talent. However, the Chargers have been through that before, and there’s no reason to expect a major drop-off from the offense. If Mathews is the real deal they might even challenge for the best offense in the conference.
Defensively, I’m a lot more worried. This has been a slightly above-average defense, but keep in mind they’ve had some terrible offenses in their division, offenses that should be improving. Their run defense has been bad, their pass rush substandard…the only thing they’ve done reasonably well is not give up big plays. They played a weak set of offenses overall in 2009, and I think they will have a rougher go of it in 2010. By trading up to get Mathews, the team gave up draft picks that could have been used on defensive help, especially in the front seven. I think the defense will slip into the bottom half of the league and the Chargers will slip as well. I think the division is still theirs for the taking, but things will be a lot tighter in 2010 – call it 11-5 for the Bolts.
Denver Broncos
2009 Record: 8-8 (2nd)
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 7-9
Key Additions: WR Demaryius Thomas, QBs Brady Quinn and Tim Tebow
Outlook: After a 6-0 start the Broncos imploded, finishing 2-8 including home losses to Oakland and KC that cost them a playoff berth. In the offseason elite WR Brandon Marshall went to Miami, leaving a below-average offense in dire straits. The team had five draft picks in the top 3 rounds and spent them all on offense, with Thomas the top pick. However, none of these picks is likely to be an impact player as a rookie, and the loss of Marshall will be felt. QB Kyle Orton is serviceable but not great, and the running game was average at best. The Broncos were 20th in points a year ago and I think that’s the best they might do in 2010.
Defensively, the team was about average but was terrible against the run, especially late in the year. The Denver brass must think that the unit will gel together, since they brought in no major personnel changes. The way the defense crumbled down the stretch concerns me, I don’t see this as any better than an average unit and potentially worse than that. Their home-field advantage seemed diminished in 2009, and if that holds they could be a very bad team. I’m going to say 6-10 for the Broncos.
Oakland Raiders
2009 Record: 5-11
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 3-13
Key Additions: LB Rolando McClain, QB Jason Campbell
Outlook: I see signs of life in Oakland – the ouster of QB JaMarcus Russell cannot help but improve the team. Last year Russell completed 48% of his passes, threw 3 TDs, 11 INTs, and was sacked 33 times. He was BY FAR the worst QB in the league. Jason Campbell is not an all-star, but he is a smart, competent QB who instantly will improve this offense. Darren McFadden is due for a breakout year at RB, and if the passing game can get defenses to back off he might have a chance at greatness. The offense also has TE Zach Miller, one of the best around. The WR corps is raw and this won’t be a TOP offense, but the days of scoring under 200 points should be over.
Defensively, the Raiders are still a mixed bag. Asomugha is still one of the top corners, allowing the defense to concentrate on other receivers, but the team was GASHED on the ground. The team drafted McClain and DT Lamarr Houston to shore up the middle of the defense; time will tell if they are for-real, but it was the right area to address. The Raiders were very lucky to win five games last year with their putrid offense – I think they will improve as a team, but it will not reflect in wins and losses very much. Call it 6-10 for the Raiders, but at least they are headed in the right direction.
Kansas City Chiefs
2009 Record: 4-12
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 6-10
Key Additions: RB Thomas Jones, SS Eric Berry, WR/RB Dexter McCluster, C Casey Weigmann
Outlook: I called for improvement in 2009 but statistically, the Chiefs were about the same in ’09 as ’08. Injuries decimated the team, especially on offense – they figure to be a bit healthier this year, and I expect QB Matt Cassell to settle in more this year. He’s clearly not a top QB, but I think he can do more than he showed last season. With the emergence of Jamaal Charles and a fortified O-line, there’s reason to expect big things from the ground game. I know I called for it last year, but I see a big improvement from this offense in 2010.
Defensively, they were still pretty much of a mess last season. Drafting Berry should really stabilize them at safety – he’s one of the top SS prospects in recent years, and should help a secondary that was burned by every good QB they played last season. The front seven did not stop the run or rush the passer well, but it was a very young unit and I believe they will improve somewhat in 2010. I believe the Chiefs have the potential to be the breakout team of 2010 – while I don’t think the defense will be GREAT, I think they will improve and a relatively weak schedule will propel them to 9-7 and wild-card contention.
Next week, we’ll try to review some of the summer happenings, including the baseball season.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.