Greetings! This week the Eye will preview the NFL season, starting with the NFC – but first, I owe you an apology and an explanation. My ‘day’ job got extremely hectic over the last few months, and forced me to focus almost all of my spare time on getting things right there. One of the things that got squeezed out for awhile was this column. I do not apologize for the choice – it simply had to be that way – but I DO apologize for suddenly leaving with no warning nor explanation. You deserve better, I can do better, and I promise that it won’t happen that way again. I also want to express my sincere thanks to GANT for being patient and allowing this column to resume – I would not have blamed them a bit had they said ‘no thanks’ when I asked if I could resume writing. The good news is, with MLB winding down, NFL and (soon) NHL about to heat up, and a myriad of events to recap over the summer, there should be plenty to write about! Without further ado, let’s get to the preview. As usual, before we look ahead we’ll look back at last year’s predictions, and see what we can learn:
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys
2009 record: 11-5 (1st in division, lost to Vikings in Conference Semis)
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 6-10
Key Additions: WR Dez Bryant
Outlook: We start off with one of my worst predictions from 2009 – I predicted that the Dallas ‘D’ would be lousy and they’d have to outscore teams to win. Naturally, they finished with the best defense in the NFL (2nd only to the Jets), allowing only 250 points all year. Offensively, they were mid-pack in scoring…yet looking deeper, they clearly were a good offensive team. They had the 2nd-most offensive yards in the league, but were average (9th) defensively in terms of yards allowed. With their only impact addition being rookie Dez Bryant, to me it’s clear that the Cowboys will continue to rely on a high-powered offense to win; it’s also quite likely that their defense will regress some in 2010.
Dallas is a relatively old team – few of their best players are 25 or younger – and they haven’t had many draft picks in recent years, so they are win win-now mode. I think they have to be the NFC East favorites almost by default, with the major changes in Philly, but I’m still not seeing a Super Bowl team here unless the defense can repeat their amazing 2009 performance and quarterback Tony Romo can pull it together in the playoffs. They have an incredibly tough schedule, which will likely keep their win total down – let’s call it 11-5 again for the ‘Boys and the division crown.
Philadelphia Eagles
2009 record: 11-5 (2nd, lost to Cowboys in Wild Card round)
2009 Glass Eye prediction: 11-5
Key Additions: RB Mike Bell, DE Brandon Graham
Outlook: It’s not every day you see a 4000-yard passing team send their QB packing, but the Eagles decided to heed Branch Rickey’s advice and trade McNabb a year too early rather than a year too late. Besides McNabb’s age and recent frailty, the move clearly indicates Andy Reid’s belief in Kevin Kolb as the team’s QB. Kolb isn’t nearly as mobile as McNabb but is a good bet to be more accurate. However, the team scored over 400 points last year, so offense wasn’t really the problem – as I discussed last year, the concern was on defense after losing coordinator Jim Johnson and revamping the secondary. The team got torched in several games and ranked in the middle of the NFL in most defensive stats. Reid and the front office responded by spending their first six draft picks (the team had seven of the first 125 picks overall) on defense. Those additions will help solidify the future in Philly, but for 2010 most will not make much impact – which means that the Eagles will probably have to score near 400 points again to make the playoffs. The worry I have this year is the offensive line – it’s not a deep group by any means, and without McNabb’s ability to avoid the rush, the line may be exposed.
If Kolb is as good as advertised and LeSean McCoy has a good sophomore season, I still believe the Eagles will be NFC East contenders….certainly I see them as a solid step ahead of the Giants and Redskins. However, with the ups and downs of a young QB, a tough schedule, and a defense in transition, predicting more than 10 wins is folly. My belief in Reid allows me to pick 10 wins and wildcard contention, but 8-8 wouldn’t really surprise me.
New York Giants
2009 Record: 8-8 (3rd)
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 10-6
Outlook: 2009 was definitely a year of transition for the G-Men, and there was good news and bad news. The good news: Eli Manning established that he really IS a good QB and not ‘along for the ride’, throwing for over 4000 yards and 28 TDs against only 14 INTs – and this for a team that by and large couldn’t run much and was behind a lot, especially late in the season. Manning was helped by the rapid development of two WRs, rookie Hakeem Nicks and especially Steve Smith (the younger). Smith caught 107 passes, which led the NFC, while Nicks established himself as a deep threat. New York is a good bet to be among the top passing offenses in the league in 2010.
The bad news: pretty much everything else. The defense was AWFUL surrendering 427 points, 350 in the last 11 games alone! (20 teams allowed less than 350 over the full season). Only the Lions and Rams allowed more than 427. Their vaunted rushing attack fell apart, with injury and ineffectiveness haunting Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw all season. Much like the Eagles, the Giants went all defense all the time in the draft, spending their top-4 picks on defensive players. They also signed Antrell Rolle to stabilize the FS position – but they have a long way to go. Frankly, the secondary is the weakest unit on the team and needs a major upgrade – in today’s NFL, it’s not enough to stop the run, you have to defend the pass. Any team with the Giants’ offensive weaponry is dangerous, and I do look for the defense to rebound somewhat – but like every other NFC East team, the schedule is brutal and makes a winning season a very tall order. Call it 7-9 for the Giants, with anything above 9-7 a remarkable feat.
Washington Redskins
2009 Record: 4-12
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 10-6
Key Additions: QB McNabb, RB Larry Johnson, RB Willie Parker, OT Trent Williams
Outlook: If you miss on one team in a division, generally you have to miss another as well, and here’s the other big miss. I thought the Redskins would be a surprise team in 2009, instead they collapsed to 4-12. Defensively they weren’t terrible – their 336 points allowed was almost exactly league-average – but their offense was pathetic, scoring only 266 points. QB Jason Campbell was made the fall guy, but I believe he was not the problem – again, he completed more than 60% of his passes and threw more TDs than INTs. The running game was completely disrupted when Clinton Portis was injured, and aside from Santana Moss none of the receivers showed much promise. Instead of opting for a sensible rebuilding phase, the always-impatient owner Dan Snyder tossed out a load of veterans and brought a new load in, figuring that an aging McNabb would be an improvement over Campbell – and this with a rookie probably starting at left tackle. I think it’s highly unlikely that McNabb plays more than 11 or 12 games.
On defense, there are no glaring holes, but no outstanding players – unless you count the outstanding selfishness of Albert Haynesworth and his training camp antics. This team is in need of a total rebuild, but with another ‘glamour’ coach in town in Mike Shanahan, odds are Snyder expects immediate winning. DC fans, I feel your pain…but I don’t see hope in DC until Snyder lets football people do their job. He reminds me very much of George Steinbrenner in the ‘80’s, foolishly overpaying the wrong players and ruining what should have been a great team. Like Big Stein, Snyder is destined to lose until he hires good management…and gets out of their way. 5-11 for the ‘Skins, and if McNabb goes down 2-14 is definitely in play with their schedule.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
2009 Record: 12-4 (1, lost NFC Championship Game)
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 8-8
Key Additions: RB Toby Gerhart, CB Lito Sheppard
Outlook: OK, after two years of ripping Brett Favre, it’s time to concede this: what he did last season ranks among the finest QB work in history for ANYONE, never mind a 40-year-old coming off arm problems. 68% completions (career high), 4200 yards (most since 1998), 33 TDs (most since 1997), only 7 INTS (EASILY career low – previous best was 13 in 1996). Say what you want about his offseason antics, but that’s the icing on the cake of a first-ballot hall-of-fame career. Despite my pessimism, there’s simply no question that he made the Vikings a LOT better than they were in 2008 – and frankly, had they not fumbled the ball all over the Superdome they could easily have won it all, they dominated the Saints in every category except turnovers.
Now, having said that…let’s be realistic, people. Now Favre is 41, he’s coming off what seems to be a nagging ankle injury, his 1.3% interception ratio is simply not repeatable, and all of his numbers are almost guaranteed to regress. Regression to the mean can be a nasty thing, and I have a strong suspicion you will see it in action with Favre this season. In fact, here’s the UPPER bound in my mind for Favre’s performance in 2010: 14 games, 3200 yards, 63% completions, 26 TDs, 15 INT. That’s still a useful player, but as you can see it’s a far cry from 2009. Add in an improved division, no likely help from the draft, and a defense that still ranks as good but not great (especially against the pass), and it’s hard for me to see 12 wins again. Now, lest this all be about Favre, I believe this IS a talented team – Adrian Peterson is still Adrian Peterson, Sidney Rice broke out last year, the defensive front seven is nasty, and Childress must be a darn good coach to keep that team from splintering last year, especially late when they lost three of their last five. In fact, the surrounding talent is good enough that if Favre CAN put up 3200 yards and 25 TDs, I think this team wins 12 games and maybe the Super Bowl. It’s hard to bet against Favre, but it’s harder to bet against the aging process. Let’s call it 11-5, still a wild-card team and a dangerous one, but not quite the dominant team of 2009 – and if Favre is injured or ineffective, 10-6 will be an accomplishment. With the Vikings, it really is all about the QB.
Green Bay Packers (2nd, lost in Wild Card round)
2009 Record: 11-5
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 12-4
Key Additions: No immediate help
Outlook: The Pack was back in 2009, re-establishing themselves as a top-tier team. Cheeseheads have already begun to forget Favre, as Aaron Rodgers has shown he is a championship-caliber QB (4400 yds, 30 TDs, 7 INTs at age 26) – yes, the QB position seems settled in Green Bay for the next decade or so. Offensively they have a diverse WR corps, a good back in Ryan Grant, and a veteran line. What they lack, like so many NFL teams, is depth – top draft pick Bryan Bulaga should be their left tackle as soon as 2011, but the draft provides little hope for 2010 help.
Defensively the depth is even more of a concern, especially in the secondary. The starting corners are 33 and 35 years old, SS Atari Bigby has been injury-prone, and the depth chart offers little to get excited about now (although much is expected of 3rd-round SS Morgan Burnett in the future). The Pack allowed only 297 points in 2009, but they were very hot-and-cold; they allowed 15 points or less eight times, but allowed 30 points or more six times, including the embarrassing 51-45 playoff loss. Unless Rodgers gets hurt, the Pack seem set on offense and will go as far as their defense allows them to go. If they allow a few more points but find more consistency, Green Bay could get a 1st-round bye and be a real contender. If the secondary gets torched like they did at the end of 2009, it could be a long year. The turning point for the Pack’s season will likely be a month-long stretch in late October and November – they play MIN, @NYJ, DAL, bye, @MIN. Anything less than 2-2 there (and a split with the Vikes) probably dooms the Pack to wild-card hopes. I think they’ll get a split or better, and if they win their opener at Philly they could easily come to Thanksgiving at 8-2 or 9-1. There’s likely a surprise loss or two along the way, and this pick is more dependent on good health than most – but I’m going to take the Pack to go 12-4 and win the division, just like I did last year. However, if they don’t start upgrading their secondary, the window might close quickly for Green Bay.
Chicago Bears
2009 Record: 7-9
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 11-5
Key Additions: DE Julius Peppers, RB Chester Taylor
Outlook: The Bears were a lot worse than you thought they were in 2009. Yes, they were 7-9, but five of those wins came against the WORST of the NFL – the Lions (twice), Rams, Browns, and Seahawks. Their other two wins were against the Vikings (when Minnesota was totally unmotivated) and in week 2 vs. Pittsburgh, their only really ‘good’ win of the year. With the Lions on the rise and a much tougher non-divisional schedule, it’s hard to see a path to even eight wins for this Bears’ squad. Jay Cutler was brought in to FINALLY be the answer at QB that the team hasn’t had…well, maybe ever, certainly since the 80’s. Cutler was hot and cold – 3500 yards and 27 TDs, sure, but also 26 INTs and a low 60% completion rate. Worse, the running game collapsed as Matt Forte had a severe sophomore slump – and the backbone of the team, their defense, was below-average at best in 2009. 14 of 16 opponents ran for more than 100 yards against the Bears!
With no real help from the draft (they didn’t have a pick until the 3rd round), Chicago turned to free agency and signed Julius Peppers to upgrade the pass rush and Chester Taylor to push Forte. Both will help, but neither is enough to turn the tide here. This just isn’t a very good football team folks, and unless Cutler has an ‘a-ha!’ moment and figures it all out, this team is headed the wrong way. I see a 6-10 season at best for Chicago, and a battle for the cellar between the Bears and the rebuilding Lions.
Detroit Lions
2009 Record: 2-14
2009 Glass Eye Prediction: 4-12
Key Additions: DT Ndamukong Suh, RB Jahvid Best, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch
Outlook: The Lions continue to build the right way – through the draft. We won’t know for several years, but preliminary indications are that their 2010 draft was a great success. Suh already shows flashes of brilliance in camp, and Best is a good bet to lead the team in rushing as a rookie. The offense has most of the skill pieces in place – if the line gels and 2nd-year QB Matt Stafford progresses, this isn’t a terrible offense.
Defensively, there’s still a LOT of holes, especially in the secondary. Clearly head coach Jim Schwartz is trying to develop a tough front seven to take the heat off the corners, but Detroit has finished last by a mile the last two seasons against the pass and that’s unlikely to change in 2010, especially given their schedule. However, the light is now visible at the end of the tunnel – another good draft or two and this team will be winning eight or more games. For 2010, six wins would be a great success, but I’m going to have to stick with a repeat of last year’s 4-12 pick – that defense simply isn’t strong enough yet to keep them in games.
Friday, we’ll preview the NFC West and South, with the AFC picks coming next week.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.