The NHL season is almost upon us already – Pittsburgh raises their 2009 Stanley Cup banner next Friday before their home opener! The format will be by division – predicted order of finish and a few comments about each team. I’ll tend to go into more detail about a.) better teams, and b.) Eastern teams, particularly the Pens. We’ll start out west and finish up next week with the east.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
PACIFIC DIVISION
Anaheim Ducks: The only team besides the Pens to really give the Red Wings a fight last season (and that after shocking #1 seed San Jose), Anaheim has a lot of talent but also a lot of questions marks. The top line of Getzlaf, Ryan, and Perry rivals any in the league, and Jonas Hiller arrived as a top goalie in 2009; but there’s a lack of scoring depth and also some questions about defensive depth with Chris Pronger in Philly and Scott Niedermayer now 36 years old. Ryan Whitney was brought on to fill Pronger’s shoes offensively, but while Whitney can score a few goals he has nowhere near the defensive skill that Pronger had.
The most costly loss may be GM Brian Burke, who has left to rebuild the Maple Leafs. Burke consistently made savvy moves to improve the Anaheim team, especially for playoff-style hockey. There’s too much talent here to miss the playoffs (barring injury**), but there’s also enough depth concern to make a division title a longshot. Let’s call it 5th place in the conference with about 96-100 points for the Ducks.
(**that’s the last time I’m going to say ‘barring injury’ unless there’s a special circumstance. Injuries are the variable here that cannot be accounted for, and any team that suffers too many of them at the wrong time will unexpectedly fall short of expectations. These predictions are based on an assumption of average health – i.e., if Washington loses Ovechkin for the season in Week 3 that’s devastating but not something we can predict or account for.)
Dallas Stars: It appears Dallas’ window has closed, as they went from a deep playoff run in ’08 to missing the postseason in ’09. With no elite talent on the team and unlikely to get a large boost from the farm system, look for another lost season in Big D. Frankly the team should begin a total rebuild, there’s really no hope of contending for the Cup with the current roster and they have marketable players in Mike Ribeiro, Mike Modano, and G Marty Turco (if he rebounds from a terrible season a year ago). Look for 75-80 points and no playoffs for the Stars.
L.A. Kings: A team to watch in the West, L.A. is sort of the opposite of the Stars – they are most decidedly on the rise, with a very young, very talented core (sound familiar, Pens fans?). Alex Frolov leads the Kings and at age 22 is still well short of his peak. The Kings imported Rob Scuderi to shore up the blueline, and they have assembled a quality supporting cast of responsible defensemen and 3rd/4th liners. The questions are scoring depth and goaltending, which leave me thinking the Kings are still a season away from true contention. I’m predicting 86-90 points and just short of the playoffs for the Kings.
Phoenix Coyotes: Possibly the worst team in the NHL and probably the worst team in the West. Also word is that coach Wayne Gretzky has resigned. This only adds to an offseason of chaos in which the team is for sale, bankrupt, and being contested in court. On the ice, the most productive players are at or past their prime and should be traded (if and when they have solid ownership to direct and rebuild). Shane Doan is 32, G Ilya Bryzgalov is 29, Ed Jovanovski is 33 – and these are the best players on the team. The youngest Staal, Jared, was added via the draft but won’t be a stalwart for a year or two. Look for a LONG, tough season with crowds at or below 10,000 per game – but a good chance at the #1 pick in the 2010 draft. I’ll say 65-72 points and last in the division and conference.
San Jose Sharks: Clearly the most disappointing team of the past decade, the Sharks have made the playoffs 10 of the last 11 seasons, and finished with 99 or more points six of the past seven – but have never even made the Stanley Cup Finals. Last season was probably the biggest disappointment of all, as the team lost in the first round after having the league’s best regular-season record. One senses that the Sharks’ window of opportunity is rapidly closing – most of the team is older and nearing decline phase. Sensing that, the Sharks’ front office gambled by trading for RW Dany Heatley from the Senators.
The risk is twofold – Heatley’s production has slipped the past two seasons, but that might be explained by his teammates’ sudden decline. The bigger risk is the talent the Sharks traded away – Jonathan Cheechoo (former 50-goal scorer), Milan Michalek (only 24, scored 23 goals last season) and a 2nd-round pick. Frankly, I think the Sharks panicked here and are worse today than they were two weeks ago before the deal. Cheechoo+Michalek = more production than Heatley, even if you assume some rebound from Heatley. With the rest of the team starting to age a bit and no other notable upgrades, it’s hard to see this team winning the Cup in 2010 either. Playoffs? Sure, that’s a no-brainer, and once you get in the tournament who knows what can happen, but I predict 100-104 points and another Cup-less season in the Shark Tank.
NORTHWEST DIVISION
Calgary Flames: A very fun team to watch in 2009, the Flames scored a lot and allowed a lot of goals. However, top goal scorer Mike Cammalleri departed for Montreal and scoring depth appears to be an issue this season. The Flames can always count on future Hall-of-Fame RW Jarome Iginla to put up numbers, and the team has a talented corps of defensemen, but G Miikka Kiprusoff is perennially overworked (76 games last season) and seems to wear down by the postseason. Like Dallas, it looks to me like the window is closing for this group of Flames and making the playoffs this season will be a dicey proposition unless they get stellar goaltending and some unexpected scoring depth. I think Iginla and Kiprusoff have one more big year left in them – call it 92-96 points and a bottom-end playoff berth for the Flames.
Colorado Avalanche: The worst team in the west BY FAR last season, the Avs may challenge the Coyotes for that title again in 2010. The team made almost no major moves in the offseason, and their best talent is either really young (Stastny, Wolski) or really old (Hejduk, Foote). The goaltending is suspect, there’s no scoring depth at all…it would be a MAJOR shock if Colorado was even contending for the eight spot come March. 70-75 points and no playoffs for the Avs.
Edmonton Oilers: My surprise western conference pick, I expect the Oilers to make some noise in 2010 and make the playoffs. They have a young, deep core of forwards, surrounded by savvy veterans. They can score from the blueline – Sheldon Souray in particular can really put up some goals from the point. Most importantly, they imported Nicolai Khabibulin to tend goal, and if he stays healthy he’s a massive upgrade in net for the Oilers. Now, this team has obvious flaws: yes, they have scoring depth but no really OUTSTANDING scorers, no ‘top line’ that jumps out at you. The defense isn’t exactly known for stellar play in their own end – and yes, Khabibulin is now 36, and the depth behind him is pretty much nonexistent. But the division is down a bit, and if Khabi can start 50+ games this team will make the playoffs and be a major headache for one of the top three seeds in April. I’m predicting 92-98 points and the playoffs for the Oilers.
Minnesota Wild: Gone is talented but oft-injured Marian Gaborik; gone is boring-but-winning coach Jacques Lemaire – gone too will be the Wild’s dreams of postseason play. This team was VERY boring but fairly effective with Lemaire at the helm – now, with only G Niklas Backstrom as a standout talent, this team will struggle to break 80 points. There’s simply no offense here, and with Lemaire gone I believe the defense will suffer. Backstrom is too good to allow a complete collapse, but look for a lot of 2-1 and 3-2 games in Minnesota to go the opponents’ way instead of the Wilds’ way. Let’s call it 80-85 points, no playoffs for Minnesota.
Vancouver: In a mediocre division, the Canucks look poised to run away with the division title. They have a top goalie (at least until the playoffs roll around) in Roberto Luongo; they re-signed the Sedin twins, which keeps the team at the top of the offensive heap in the division; and their defense is a solid, underrated group. They even showed last season that they could survive an injury to Luongo, which surprised me – I thought that team was dead when he was lost for weeks. Overall this is a solid group, and if Luongo can overcome his postseason demons they are a legitimate threat to get to the Cup finals.
CENTRAL DIVISION
Chicago Blackhawks: The trendy pick this season, due to their successful 2008-09 campaign and the acquisition of Marian Hossa; however, I’d like to throw a little rain on the parade here. Hossa is out for at least 6-8 weeks following offseason shoulder surgery, and may take awhile to regain full strength after that. His arrival followed the departure of Martin Havlat, who led the team in points last season and is younger than Hossa. The departure of G Khabibulin puts a LOT of pressure on Christobal Huet to get the job done between the pipes; there are apparently some good young goalies in the system but none are seen as ready to start in the NHL yet. Finally, teams that come out of nowhere like the ’09 Hawks tend to regress a bit the next season – the ’08 Pens were the exception to that, not the rule.
Having said all that, there’s a TON of talent on this team, especially at forward. The defense is also solid, although unless Brian Campbell rebounds from a subpar year they don’t have a top-tier two-way defenseman. There’s no question that this team should make the playoffs and possibly contend for the division title – but in such a rugged division, with the questions surrounding Hossa, I expect a tougher regular season than many others are predicting. Watch out for this team in April/May, however, especially if Huet is playing well. Call it 98-102 points and 2nd in the division.
Columbus Blue Jackets: Another team seemingly on the rise, the addition of Calder Trophy-winning G Steve Mason propelled the Jackets into the playoffs – where they were promptly swept by the Red Wings. The Jackets are very young, especially up front, and have a good core of talent headed by all-star RW Rick Nash. Scoring depth is an issue for the Jackets, as it is for many teams, but I feel the offense will actually improve slightly from last year due to continued improvement from the young scorers on the team.
The questions are on defense, where there aren’t any top-shelf talents, and in goal, where Mason must prove he wasn’t a flash in the pan. Mason wasn’t regarded as the next superstar goalie while in the minors, and my suspicion is that he will regress a bit in his sophomore season. Like the Blackhawks, expectations are high for this Columbus team, but the Jackets cannot match Chicago’s talent base – their regression may be more severe, especially if Mason slips. The central may be the roughest division in the league, and the battle may well mean a superior team misses the playoffs due to the unbalanced division schedule. All five teams fought for a playoff berth last season and four got in; this season I think three get in, and the third team will be the Jackets – barely. 90-95 points for the Jackets, who will likely make a move in-season to bolster the team for the postseason.
Detroit Red Wings: The NHL’s latest dynasty – make no mistake, they are a dynasty, as 18 straight playoff appearances, 6 finals appearances, and 4 Cups attest to – looks to be on the tail end of its run. Yes, there’s still a lot of talent here, and no question they will again make the postseason, but the cracks in the armor are starting to show. The team was visibly gassed by the end of the postseason last June, and uncharacteristically allowed the Pens to gut out Games 6 and 7 after dominating Game 5. So many of their top players are on the wrong side of 30 years old – Nick Lidstrom (39), Brian Rafalski (35), Chris Osgood (36), Thomas Holmstrom (36), and Pavel Datsyuk (31) are the most prominent.
They’ve had two very short offseasons in a row, and I expect it to show in their early-season record. At this point the regular season HAS to feel like a formality to much of the team; they never are in danger of missing the playoffs, and in fact they have won eight straight division titles. I think they will put up a valiant effort, but I see them falling back to the pack some, in a dogfight with Chicago for division supremacy and prime candidates for an early-round upset – especially if Chris Osgood can’t recapture the postseason magic of last season. Osgood was HORRIBLE during the regular season, and he has to play better during the regular season as the Wings will likely be less potent this time around. Call it 100-105 points for the Wings, but perhaps their last run over 100 points for a bit unless they can rebuild on the fly.
Nashville Predators: Yet another team whose time has apparently passed, the Predators were an elite team 2-4 seasons ago but missed the playoffs last year. The Preds feature a talented defense corps led by 24-year-olds Shea Weber and Ryan Suter – but they have NO scoring depth up front and no young talent at forward either. G Peka Rinne is capable and had a remarkably good season, but this team flat-out doesn’t score enough to compete. Nashville will probably hold a fire sale at some point this season and rebuild around their defense and goalie; look for them to finish last in this rugged division with 72-77 points.
St. Louis Blues: Another surprisingly successful team a year ago, the Blues look to build on that success in 2010. They were led by a seemingly out-of-nowhere performance by G Chris Mason – Mason is 33 and has bounced around the league despite putting up solid numbers at every stop. He played exceptionally well for the Blues last season and he’s a great story, but the reality is he probably will regress this season. The good news is that the Blues have a bevy of exceptional young defensemen – in fact I believe within three years St. Louis might have the best defense corps in the league. They are OK up front, with the ‘killer B’s’ of Boyes, Backus, and Berglund forming a fairly talented group of forwards. If Keith Tkachuk and Paul Kariya can defy Father Time, this team might just sneak into the playoffs again…but I think between the goalie regression, and the inexperience of much of the defense corps, and yes, the tough division, St. Louis will just barely miss the postseason with 85-90 points.
Next week, the eastern conference, and a MLB regular season review/playoff preview.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.