In this space 6 weeks ago, I blasted the Penguins for changing coaches, and was very down on their chances of making the playoffs. Certainly I wasn’t the only skeptic, but one cannot argue with the results since then: after last night’s systematic 6-1 dismantling of the sad-sack New York Islanders, the team has compiled a 17-3-4 record under interim coach Dan Bylsma and is currently tied for 4th place in the Eastern Conference. At the time of Michel Therrien’s firing, the Pens were 27-25-5 and in 10th place. There are a myriad of reasons for this amazing turnaround, and I’ll attempt to tackle them all in this column.
Right off the bat, let me make clear that in retrospect, GM Ray Shero made the right move in firing Therrien, and my judgment that the move wouldn’t work was definitely wrong. Whether they would admit it or not (and they haven’t publicly), the players were not responding to Therrien at all by February, and Bylsma’s attacking style fits the personnel much better. Having said that, let’s not be too hasty to coronate Bylsma as the next Scotty Bowman – let me show you some other changes that occurred around the same timeframe:
2/14 – Sergei Gonchar returns from a shoulder injury that had kept him out all season.
2/15 – Bylsma replaces Therrien.
2/26 – Ryan Whitney, who had played terribly for 25 games, is traded to Anaheim for RW Chris Kunitz and prospect Eric Tangradi.
3/1 – After playing 26 games in 59 days (Jan/Feb), which included five sets of back-to-back games and a 7-day break for the all-star game, the Penguins begin a light schedule of games, only 13 in 31 days and only one back-to-back set. In addition, eight of the 13 games are at home. We’ll explain the importance of this in more detail below.
3/4 – LW Bill Guerin acquired from Islanders for a draft pick; LW Craig Adams acquired off waivers from Blackhawks.
Each of these player acquisitions played a significant role in the turnaround. Gonchar’s importance to the team is now well-known, thanks to his extended absence – without him, the power play floundered and the Pens were not solid defensively. Whitney’s departure was addition by subtraction, as it allowed more able defensive players to take his minutes. Kunitz and Guerin have become Crosby’s wingmates and finally allowed Pittsburgh to deploy four effective lines – Max Talbot and Pascal Dupuis are extremely able 4th-line grinders, but are not effective as top-line players. Craig Adams will also be an effective penalty-killer and 4th-liner in the postseason.
Let’s take a closer look at that schedule: this season the Penguins went 6-7-0 when they had played the day before; 19-17-5 with one day of rest; 13-4-2 with two days of rest, and 5-0-2 with three or more days off. For whatever reason, this team struggled most of the season when playing a busy schedule. March provided them with several stretches of two or more days off, and their lone back-to-back situation was in the midst of a long homestand, against a team that had also played the day before. Only six of the 13 games in March were played against playoff-bound teams, and four of those six games were played at home. In short, the schedule favored Pittsburgh in March, and they took advantage of it.
Now, back to Coach Bylsma. It’s clear that the players enjoy his style – he preaches north-south action, an aggressive forecheck, and a lot less defensive trapping. Players such as Jordan Staal (17 points in Bylsma’s 24 games), Tyler Kennedy (15 points), and Chris Kunitz (18 points in 19 games) have really thrived under Bylsma’s direction. It’s nearly impossible to know for sure how much influence Bylsma has had on the team’s turnaround, but clearly it’s significant.
Let’s also keep in mind that for whatever reason, this is the third consecutive year Pittsburgh has finished strongly. In 2007 the Pens were 18-17-7 in mid-January; they then went on a 14-0-2 run, and finished March/April on a 14-3-3 run. In 2008 the team was 17-16-2 in late December before a 7-game winning streak; an 11-4-1 March/April run propelled the team to the #2 seed. It could be coincidental, and frankly it probably is, but just the same we have to allow for the POSSIBILITY that this core group of players has a unique ability to finish strong – and if that were true I’d cite their relative youth and conditioning as key factors.
In summation, my estimation of the factors that led to this turnaround: Bylsma 40%, Gonchar’s return 15%, Guerin/Kunitz additions(and by extension Whitney subtraction) 20%, schedule 20%, random factors 5%. In any case, two things are readily apparent: Dan Bylsma has been at the helm of, and contributed heavily to, a remarkable turnaround; and this is a team no Eastern Conference foe wants to draw in the first round. Next week’s Glass Eye will be a bit earlier than usual, the NHL playoffs start April 15, and I’ll have a preview of all eight matchups before they start. Happy Easter, everyone!