Sorry for the missed week, folks, I was sick as a dog and in no condition to write a column…but I’m back, and ready to tackle the start of baseball season. This week we’ll look around the American League. I’ll name my surprise teams and also my ‘best bets’ against Vegas’ predicted wins, and look at some of the major additions/subtractions from teams as well. We’ll start in the AL West.
Los Angeles Angels – 2008 record: 100-62, Vegas line: 88.5 wins. The Angels lost slugger Mark Teixeira and closer Francisco Rodriguez to free agency, and breakout starter Ervin Santana is out at least a month with elbow problems. The signing of Bobby Abreu helps, but the shallow starting rotation, the stronger competition in the division, and the decline of Abreu and Vlad Guerrero make this team a longshot to get to 90 wins, much less repeat 100. I like the Vegas line here, I think 85-90 wins is the right target.
Texas Rangers – 2008 record: 79-83, Vegas line: 74.5 wins. Texas led the AL in runs scored but had the worst pitching in the junior circuit, with a team ERA of 5.97. Help is on the way, as Baseball Prospectus (BP) recently named the Rangers’ prospect stable #2 in all of baseball on the strength of some great young pitching prospects, but the outlook for 2009 isn’t great. The rotation is a collection of has-beens and never-will be’s, and the loss of Milton Bradley may hurt the offense unless young slugger Chris Davis avoids a sophomore slump. This is a team on the rise, but not until 2010 at the earliest. Once again I think Vegas is in the ballpark with 72-77 wins.
Oakland Athletics – 2008 record: 75-86, Vegas line: 82.5 wins. Another team on the rise, only this team is making a run for 2009 glory with the additions of Jason Giambi, Orlando Cabrera and especially slugger Matt Holliday. Further help is on the way, as BP rated their farm system #1 in the game. Pitching is the question here – can Justin Duchsherer repeat his surprising success? Can the ragtag bullpen keep it together? This team will score some runs, and look for GM Billy Beane to make a splash via trade if they are still in the race in July. I have a sneaking suspicion they WILL be in the race, and I think the late-season fortifications make 82 a low-end win total. I’d definitely go with the over here, I think 85-90 wins and a dogfight with the Angels is the most likely outcome.
Seattle Mariners – 2008 record: 61-101, Vegas line: 72.5 wins. The M’s hit rock bottom last year, as injuries and poor management led to the worst record in the AL. The M’s have new management, but this will take some time to turn around, as their farm system is not rated in the top half of MLB. To even approach .500 the M’s need a rebound from Ichiro, an injury-free season from Erik Bedard, and a whole lot of career years from players like Russ Branyan, Wladmir Balentien, and Franklin Gutierrez. In other words, a 72-90 record sounds about right. The return to 90’s glory will take years in Seattle.
AL CENTRAL
Chicago White Sox – 2008 record: 89-74, Vegas line: 78.5 wins. Despite last year’s run, Vegas is predicting a return to 2007 form for the ChiSox. I tend to agree – their lineup is very old, and they have no rotation depth at all. Add to that the talent coming up elsewhere in the division, and it’s easy to see why Vegas is pessimistic. Chicago didn’t really add any notable players, and their farm system is fairly barren. A rebuilding project looms on the horizon for Chicago, but the team will try to make one more run with the old gang. I think the range of possibilities is very wide for this team – if they get a few breaks and stay healthy, they could win 85 games. However, they are so thin at key positions that one or two injuries could doom them to a 70-win season.
Minnesota Twins – 2008 record: 88-75, Vegas line: 83.5 wins. Here’s my top ‘sleeper’ pick – I think the Twins are undervalued by Vegas. Yes, Joe Mauer is having some injury issues, but this is a team with a lot of depth in the rotation, and a better offense than you might have thought – Last year they scored 5.09 runs per game, 3rd in the AL. Even if Mauer is limited to DH at times, this team will score enough to win. Last season ace Francisco Liriano missed a good chunk of the season recovering from Tommy John surgery; he looks to be recovered now. To me, the breakout candidate is starter Kevin Slowey – look for him to win 15+ games and be a real solid pitcher for the Twins. I think Minnesota has to be considered at least co-favorites to win the division, and I’d definitely take the over on 83 wins. I predict 88-93 wins.
Cleveland Indians – 2008 record 81-81; Vegas line 85.5 wins. A lot of things went wrong for the Indians last season – Victor Martinez and Travis Hafner both got hurt and both didn’t hit when they were healthy; Fausto Carmona followed up his breakout ’07 campaign with an AWFUL 2008; the team ended up trading ace C.C. Sabathia rather than lose him to free agency; for the second time in three years, the bullpen imploded. Sabathia is gone, but the other problems at least have a CHANCE at being rectified. They’re trying Martinez at first base in hopes that he’ll stay healthy, They imported the underrated Mark DeRosa to shore up the infield, and Kerry Wood is the new closer. However, they are counting on Cliff Lee to followup his amazingly good ’08 season with another strong performance, and given Lee’s history I’m not sure that’s wise. Wood hasn’t been fully healthy in years, and the rotation is full of question marks. Many experts think Cleveland is the favorite to win the division, but I actually think they are likely to struggle to reach .500 again. I’m taking the under on this one, call it 75-83 wins.
Kansas City Royals – 2008 record 75-87, Vegas line 75.5 wins. The AL’s version of the Pirates, KC has been rebuilding for years but never seems to get it right. Also like the Pirates, there are signs of life here but not enough to contend yet. I’m still a believer in 3B Alex Gordon and would not be surprised if he hit 35 home runs this season. They have two excellent starters in Grienke and Meche and a top-5 closer in Joakim Soria – but they also have “out machines” at C, 1B, and LF, and a lack of depth in the rotation. 75 wins seems just about right for this squad, especially with the talent in the division.
Detroit Tigers – 2008 record 74-88, Vegas line 81.5 wins. Last year’s trendy preseason pick fell flat on their faces – projected by some to score 1000 runs, they managed only 821 while allowing 857, 3rd worst in the league. Injuries and age caught up to the Tigers, and while there should be improvement this season I think contention is a longshot. If Jeremy Bonderman comes back healthy they have the makings of a good rotation, and they have hall-of-fame offensive talents in Mags Ordonez, Miguel Cabrera, and Carlos Guillen. However, much like the Royals they have offensive sinkholes at catcher, 3B, SS, and DH (if Sheffield is as done as he looked last year). I don’t think this is an 88-loss team, but I don’t think 90 wins is realistic either. 81 wins looks pretty good, I’ll say anything from 78-84 wins.
AL EAST
Tampa Bay Rays – 2008 record: 97-65, Vegas line 88.5 wins. Aside from the Angels, Vegas predicts the biggest drop from the Rays. This is not as much a reflection of the Rays’ talent as it is the amazing strength of the division, and Tampa STILL has a collection of studs in their farm system (ranked #3 by BP). If I were a betting man I’d steer clear of this one – on one hand they almost certainly will regress to the mean some, on the other hand they have so many young players that can be expected to continue to improve. Then there’s the division to take into account – if TB played in the NL West they’d probably win 100 games, but in the AL East these teams are going to beat each other up all season. Having said that, if forced to bet I’d take the over. The team added Pat Burrell to DH, and he will definitely help. The rotation is young, but it appears David Price will pitch most of the year in the rotation and as we saw last October, he’s the real deal. The Rays also have a few more potential aces waiting in AAA. In short, they have youth, depth, and a GM who won’t be afraid to make a trade to fill any gaps in July. I’m going to say 90-100 wins for this squad.
Boston Red Sox – 2008 record: 95-67, Vegas line 94.5 wins. Considering the relative strength of the Yankees and Rays, and the fact that the Sox didn’t make any upgrades, I think this is a puzzling win total by Vegas. Yes, the Sox have been strong for years, and I think they will have a fine squad again this season, but consider their age: Their offense has only two starters younger than 30, Pedroia and Crisp. JD Drew has had injury problems for years, David Ortiz had injury problems last season, and both are 33. Mike Lowell is 35, Jason Varitek is 37, and it’s an open question if either of them is still viable as a starter. Kevin Youkilis probably had his career year last season, and even at 24 it’s possible that Pedroia did as well. The rotation is much more promising, as it is younger and full of flamethrowers from both sides of the plate – in fact I think the Sox might have the best rotation in the division, and that’s really saying something. However they are still a bit thin in the bullpen, and I think their offense is going to suffer this season. Last season Boston scored 5.22 runs per game and the Yankees scored 4.7. I think there’s an excellent chance those numbers will reverse, so I’m definitely taking the under on 95 wins. 85-92 is my range.
New York Yankees – 2008 record: 89-73, Vegas line 95.5 wins. So the Yanks missed the playoffs and had a bunch of contracts come off the books – no surprise that they went on a spending spree. They did it right, though, landing the top hitter AND pitcher available. Mark Teixeira is a perfect fit on this team, and C.C. Sabathia should more than replace Mike Mussina. The Yankees are not infallible – the injury to A-Rod hurts this team badly, and if it ends up costing him more than a few weeks, their fans will find out the hard way just how irreplaceable his bat is. Derek Jeter has become a liability afield, and his bat is in decline; ditto Jorge Posada, and the Yanks have no realistic alternative for either player. The outfield is either inexperienced or aging rapidly or Xavier Nady. However, the rotation has a chance to be historically good, if Chin-Mieng Wang is healthy and Joba Chamberlain makes a successful starting debut. Plus, you KNOW the Yankees can buy solutions in July to fix any holes they see. It pains me, but I think A-Rod will come back strong, this offense will be top-5 and the rotation will carry the Yanks to 95-100 wins. I wouldn’t touch the over, though, 95 is a lot – just avoid it altogether.
Toronto Blue Jays – 2008 record 86-76, Vegas line 79.5. You probably didn’t realize it, but Toronto led the AL in pitching last season, with a team ERA of 3.77 – an excellent figure in the AL. However, Toronto finished 4th in the division, which should tell you that pitching doesn’t win by itself – in today’s game, you have to hit to win. Toronto finished 11th in scoring and didn’t slug .400 as a team, which simply won’t get it done in the rough-and-tumble AL East. Unfortunately I think Toronto squandered their chance, as their vaunted pitching has been decimated by injury and free agency – A.J. Burnett is a Yankee, while Shaun Marcum and Dustin McGowan are both out with injury. The shame of it is that the offense will probably improve, as top prospect Travis Snider will likely be with the team all season. Even at that, the offense wouldn’t be as good as the Big 3 in the East, and with the demise of the rotation, it looks like a long summer in Toronto. I’d take the under on the wins, in this division I’d say 70-75 wins for this squad.
Baltimore Orioles – 2008 record 68-93, Vegas line 71.5 wins. Baltimore hasn’t had a winning record since 1997, but things are looking up – they have a bevy of young talent already up, and a rejuvenated farm system about to recharge their rotation. For 2009, though, the pitching simply isn’t there – the offense should be fairly potent with probable rookie of the year Matt Weiters, Nick Markakis, and Adam Jones leading the hit parade, but the starting pitching is simply a mess. 2011 is this team’s scheduled arrival date; until then, I recommend checking out Camden Yards while tickets are readily available. I like the under here. In a division this strong the O’s will take a lot of losses to the Big 3, and frankly losing 100 games would benefit the team via a high draft pick anyway. Look for 60-65 wins from this squad.
Next week, we’ll begin our tour of the NL, with possibly some bracket-busting commentary as well.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.