Well, they made that look easy, didn’t they? The Penguins looked completely dominant in the first round of the playoffs, sweeping the Ottawa Senators and trailing for less than 5 minutes in the entire series. They showed offensive firepower, grit, tough defense, and most importantly a rock-solid goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. With their round 2 matchup against the New York Rangers set to begin Friday (7PM on Versus), let’s take a look back at the sweep, analyze this matchup, and take a quick look at the other 3 series.
The question everyone is asking: Is Pittsburgh this good, or was Ottawa that bad? As usual, the answer lies in the middle. No question, by March Ottawa was in disarray. As I mentioned in the last column, they had the worst record in the league since Jan. 1, their goalie situation was a mess, and they were missing several key players due to injury. The Penguins looked to be the better team, but after the thrashing they took last playoff season at the hands of these Senators, and the way they struggled against the Sens in the regular season, there was reason to wonder how this would play out.
The Sens’ goaltending ended up being their lone bright spot – Martin Gerber’s numbers won’t look that great as a whole, but he was under fire from the start of the series and single-handedly kept his team in the last 3 games of the series. With the pressure the Pens applied, had Gerber had an off-night the Penguins could have scored seven goals per game. No, the fault lies mostly with the forwards of the Senators, particularly Jason Spezza and Dany Heatley. Ottawa’s top two scorers in the regular season combined for no goals and two assists in the series.
Pittsburgh, meanwhile, got scoring from their stars (Crosby had 8 points, Malkin added 7) and their role-players (Gary Roberts scored two HUGE goals; Ruutu and Max Talbot each scored a goal as well). The Penguins’ defense corps, much-maligned for their perceived lack of toughness, really handled the Senators and played with an edge. The star, though, was Marc-Andre’ Fleury. Fleury surrendered only five goals in four games, with three of those coming in a 20-minute stretch of game 2. Fleury withstood everything Ottawa threw at him and in the process showed that he is 100% recovered from his ankle injury, and that he’s mentally ready to carry a team in the postseason.
The matchup: Penguins vs. Rangers. The Rangers struggled to score for most of the season and Jaromir Jagr seemed a shell of himself, but they played tight defense all season and seemed to come together in the weeks leading up to the playoffs. They dispatched New Jersey in only 5 games, so they are also a rested team. Honestly, this was the one matchup I did not want for the Pens – New York has a good mix of scorers, grinders, and a fantastic goalie in Henrik Lundqvist. That said, they have two weaknesses I think Pittsburgh can exploit: they have no premier defensemen, and unless Jagr plays sensationally they have no one go-to scorer. The Rangers will agitate the Penguins and I expect a lot of low-scoring games, and if Lundqvist plays the series of his life the Rangers can win. Anything less will give the Penguins an edge. Fleury doesn’t have to outplay Lundqvist, just make the goaltending an even matchup and let the Pens’ superior talent win the day. I think this is what will happen, I think Sidney Crosby will have a huge series and I think the PENS WILL WIN IN SIX GAMES.
Snapshots of the other series:
Montreal (1 seed) vs. Philadelphia (6) – Oh, how I wanted Philly to lose their series with Washington, both because I dislike the Flyers, and because the Pens would have drawn the Capitals (which would have been an easier matchup for Pittsburgh in my opinion). Both these teams endured grueling, 7-game series last round, and both almost blew 3-1 series leads. Montreal has a lot of speed, youth, and a great rookie goalie. The Flyers have a traditional Flyer mix of depth, grit, and scoring. I think the big difference is in goal, where Montreal’s Carey Price is a notch better than either Flyer goalie, and on defense, as the Flyers’ D is notoriously immobile. Many see this as a tough series, and that’s always possible, but I think the Flyers are completely spent and unless they split the first 2 games, this will end fast. I’ll root for Philly, but I’m picking MONTREAL IN FIVE
Detroit (1) vs. Colorado (6) – This is the latest version of a classic NHL rivalry, as the Red Wings met the Avalanche in the 1996, 1997, 1999, 2000, and 2002 playoffs. Colorado leads the series 3-2, but every series was hotly contested and every one of them went at least six games. Expect the same here, as both teams feature scoring depth and experienced goaltending. The two big questions in this one are will the ageing Avalanche stay healthy, and will Detroit’s goaltending hold up? Colorado is led by veterans Joe Sakic and Peter Forsberg, both of whom missed significant time with injury this season. Detroit switched goalies midway through their opening-round series after Dominik Hasek played poorly in games 3 and 4; Chris Osgood led the Wings to victory in games 5 and 6, and has been named Game 1 starter. If Colorado can take Game 1, I think this series gets VERY interesting as the Wings would have to lose some confidence in their goalies. Conversely, Avs goalie Jose Theodore is playing as he did 5 years ago, when he was the best goalie in the league for Montreal. He will have to retain that magic to get by the wings. This should be THE series to watch in round 2, and while Detroit has home-ice I think their goalie situation will come back to haunt them. I’m going with COLORADO IN SEVEN.
San Jose (2) vs. Dallas (5) – Another interesting series. San Jose was widely predicted to win the Stanley Cup before the playoffs began, but then struggled with the Calgary Flames, finally finishing them off in seven games but showing an alarming lack of passion at times. The Dallas Stars vanquished the defending Cup champions, as well as their own recent playoff demons, beating Anaheim in six games. Both teams feature premier goaltenders and deep forward lines, but San Jose has to be given the edge on defense. Dallas played 3 rookies most of the Anaheim series on defense, while San Jose has a veteran, playoff-tested group. One key player is Joe Thornton of the Sharks – Big Joe has led the league in assists 3 straight regular seasons, but has a checkered history in the playoffs. He has to be a big-time leader and producer for San Jose to advance. For me, this a very tough call – the raw numbers clearly favor San Jose, they have the more talented lineup, but my instincts are warning me about their horrible effort in Game 6 last round. If San Jose plays with urgency and passion they should win in 5 or 6 games, and I know I might regret this pick – but I watched a lot of the Dallas series and they seem to have a lot more fire. That goes a LONG way in the Stanley Cup playoffs, so I’ll say STARS IN SIX as my upset special.
Enjoy the games!
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net