Well, we finally got to see an interesting series. After 4 mostly blah opening-round series and a sweep in the NLCS, the ALCS featured a great comeback by the Boston Red Sox, led by timely hitting and a dominant bullpen. Meanwhile, the Colorado Rockies are rested and ready. Let’s take a look at how this series breaks down.
The two teams certainly took different paths to get to this point. The Rockies, as I’m sure you’ve heard, were all but eliminated in mid-September but have gone 21-1 since, including an astounding 7-0 in the playoffs. The Red Sox, on the other hand, got off to a blistering start in April and May and coasted into the playoffs. The Cleveland series was really Boston’s first live-or-die test of the season, and they handled it well, pounding Cleveland in games 5, 6, and 7 by a combined score of 30-5.
Both teams can hit the ball. The Red Sox ranked third in the AL in runs scored, while Colorado ranked second in the NL. Granted, both teams play in hitter-friendly stadiums and should be at or near the top of MLB in offense, but even at that both teams feature some truly dangerous hitters – David \”Big Papi\” Ortiz, Manny Ramirez, and Mike Lowell pace the Sox’ attack, while Matt Holliday, Todd Helton, and Brad Hawpe lead the Rockies. I like the Red Sox’ offense slightly better than the Rockies’ attack, because their second-tier hitters like Dustin Pedroia, Kevin Youkilis, and Jason Varitek have been more productive than Rockies hitters such as Garrett Atkins, Yorvit Torrealba, and Willy Taveras.
Starting pitching is where I think the Sox have a decided advantage. The Red Sox enjoy the services of two very dependable starters in Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling. Beckett has been especially dominant in the playoffs, going 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA in 3 starts. Boston also has \”Dice-K\” Matsuzaka, who has nasty stuff, and knuckleballer Tim Wakefield. Wakefield can be hit-or-miss, but just his presence has a tendency to foul up opposing hitters’ timing. For the Rockies, they boast an ace in Jeff Francis, one of the best young lefthanders in baseball…but after him it’s a decidedly mixed bag. Ubaldo Jimenez has great stuff but is young and inconsistent. Pirate fans will remember Josh Fogg, who wasn’t good enough to start for the Bucs but now will be a World Series starter (and was released on merit; his career ERA is 4.90). Fogg has only allowed 1 run in 8 innings this postseason; he will have to keep the smoke-and-mirrors act working for at least one more start. The final starter will either be Franklyn Morales, the one Rockies pitcher to get hit hard this postseason, or soft-tossing righty Aaron Cook. Looking at this matchup, at least one Rockies starter is going to have to pitch over his head to give Colorado a chance, and the Rox must also find a way to solve Beckett in one of the games he starts.
The bullpens for both teams have been quite impressive in the playoffs. Colorado boasts a potent lefty-righty tandem in Brian Fuentes and Manny Corpas. LaTroy Hawkins and Jeremy Affeldt have also been effective for the Rox. The Red Sox have been heavily reliant on their own lefty-righty duo of Hideki Okajima and Jon Papelbon. Papelbon has been absolutely dominant all season, while Okajima has shown signs of tiring late in the season. Mike Timlin provides another experienced set-up man for Boston. After that it gets dicey for the Sox, their pen doesn’t have as much depth this season as Colorado. If the Rockies can chase a starter before the sixth inning, they should be in business.
A possible hidden factor in Colorado’s favor is defense, especially in the outfield. Holliday, Taveras, and Hawpe can cover a LOT of ground and rarely make any errors. Boston’s outfield is a lot more suspect, particularly Manny Ramirez in LF. This may loom large in Colorado, where all three OFs have to cover a lot of ground. On the infield, Boston’s defense is solid all the way around but Colorado has potential Gold-Glove defenders at SS and 1B in rookie Troy Tulowitzki and Helton. Between the defensive imbalance and the lack of a DH (forcing Boston to either sit Ortiz or put him at 1B, which would really weaken them defensively), I think Colorado has a decided advantage at home.
So what’s it all add up to? Predicting short series is really a crapshoot, let’s be honest…but I see Boston’s edge in the rotation being the key factor. Colorado should win a game or 2 at home, but I’m going to predict 2 Beckett wins and BOSTON IN 6.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six kids. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net