By Anthony Hennen | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – John Fetterman defeated Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate election, giving Democrats control of both of the commonwealth’s seats.
While it’s still unclear who will control the U.S. Senate, Fetterman’s victory emphasized the importance of candidate quality in elections.
In a moderate swing state like Pennsylvania, voters have shown their willingness to split votes between Democrats and Republicans, rather than always voting by their party registration.
“Candidates matter, and in a ticket-splitting state like Pennsylvania … who you put on the ballot really does make a difference,” said Sam Chen, a professor of political science at Northampton Community College and host of the talk show news journal Face the Issues.
When voters generally don’t like a candidate, the candidate struggles. Oz’s favorability rating, according to a November poll by Marist College, was only 35%, while 52% of voters viewed him unfavorably.
Fetterman, however, didn’t do much better. He had a 45% favorability rating and 43% of voters viewed him unfavorably. Those lower numbers might have made the race closer than it otherwise might have been.
Notably, Fetterman led Oz 50.5% to 47.1% with 93% of votes counted as of Wednesday afternoon, whereas Democrat Josh Shapiro led Republican Doug Mastriano in the gubernatorial election 56% to 42%.
“You look at the differentials between the governor’s race and the Senate race, and the Democrats should take good note of what kind of Democrats can do very well statewide,” Chen said. “Josh Shapiro showed that – he way outperformed Fetterman. I think for Democrats, that should be a note of what kind of candidates voters statewide look toward.”
What the numbers hint at is moderation as key to statewide success in Pennsylvania.
“By and large, what we’re seeing is 1) MAGA fatigue, we’re seeing some fatigue of this overall Trump/MAGA stuff – not within the Republican Party, but within the larger voting public and 2) Republicans putting up bad candidates,” Chen said.
Fetterman, then, is the beneficiary of a weaker rival that made up for his progressive image that otherwise might have turned off voters. Fetterman’s victory gives the Democrats control of a Senate seat formerly held by retiring Republican Sen. Pat Toomey.
So far, Pennsylvania is the only state where Democrats flipped a seat. Races in Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada at this publishing are still too close to call. Fetterman’s victory, regardless, is pivotal.
Though some late polls gave Oz the advantage in the race, a poll from Marist College accurately projected Fetterman to win, as The Center Square previously reported. The actual results stand at 51% to 47% in favor of Fetterman, and Marist’s November poll had the race at 51% to 45% Fetterman among definite voters, with 4% undecided.
“Part of it is the quality of candidates, part of it is the demography of the state,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist College Institute for Public Opinion. “Pennsylvania is different than Ohio … but Democrats, in order to succeed, have to, as they lose white blue-collar voters, they’ve had to be able to find enough high-income people with college (degrees) who can also fill in the missing pieces. I think in Pennsylvania, they’ve done that more successfully, although not every time.”
Fetterman shows that Pennsylvania is not a swing state gone Republican, like Ohio or Florida. Instead, his victory shows how Democrats have remained competitive.
“If anything sets a place like Pennsylvania apart from Ohio, it’s this distribution of the suburban, urban, and rural vote,” Miringoff said. “If you find a state that has a bigger metro vote, there’s a greater potential right now for Democrats to win.”