By Anthony Hennen | The Center Square
(The Center Square) – The latest election poll shows that Pennsylvania’s Republican candidates have an image problem and trail Democratic rivals in support. Lower GOP voter trust in elections may also hurt Republican turnout.
Nationally, Republicans anticipate an advantage in the midterms due to a dip in support for the president’s party after an election. Yet, in Pennsylvania, if the numbers hold true, the commonwealth will be an outlier.
A Marist Poll released on Wednesday has Democrat John Fetterman outpacing Republican Dr. Mehmet Oz in the race for Senate 51% to 41% among registered voters. The governor’s race is even worse for Republicans: Democrat Josh Shapiro has a commanding lead over Republican Doug Mastriano, 53% to 40%.
The Democratic lead is in spite of voters’ top issue: inflation.
“When thinking about midterm elections, 40% of Pennsylvania adults say inflation is the issue that is top of mind,” the Marist poll noted. “Preserving democracy (29%), abortion (16%), immigration (7%), and health care (7%) follow.”
The poll was conducted September 19-22 among 1,356 Pennsylvania adults, 1,242 of whom are registered voters. Marist noted that, when only likely voters are considered, Fetterman still has a 7-point lead. Likewise, Shapiro’s lead remained in double digits.
While some poll watchers noted that registered voter polls give a significant advantage to Democrats over a likely voter approach, it appears the margin of difference isn’t big enough to matter in Pennsylvania.
That difference could come from favorability, where Fetterman and Shapiro have an advantage among independent voters.
“A plurality of adults (45%) has a favorable impression of Fetterman while 39% have an unfavorable one. Oz’s favorable rating is upside down (30% favorable to 51% unfavorable),” Marist noted.
The pattern is the same in the governor’s race.
“A plurality of Pennsylvanians (47%) has a favorable view of Shapiro while a similar plurality (45%) has an unfavorable view of Mastriano,” the poll noted.
“Another thing is the enthusiasm factor,” Jay DeDapper, director of strategy and innovation for Marist, said in a press call. “Look at those who are strongly supporting their candidates and both Shapiro and Fetterman are well up over their Republican counterparts.”
The strong support for Democrats differs from the national picture, where Republicans have an edge in voter enthusiasm.
Pennsylvania is also an outlier in one other respect, which may explain a lack of voter enthusiasm: Republican voters have less trust in the election process of the commonwealth.
That lower trust is despite the efforts of the GOP-controlled General Assembly to reform election laws and ban third-party funding, as The Center Square previously reported.
A strong majority of Democrats, 92%, said they were very confident or confident in the fairness and accuracy of the commonwealth’s elections. A majority of independents, 66%, responded similarly. Yet only 42% of Republicans were very confident or confident.
“That gap is actually wider than I recall in other states,” said Lee Miringoff, director of The Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “This is very wide, despite the efforts … in trying for the state to sort of renew people’s confidence in this. That’s a pretty rough number on the Republicans and their confidence.”
In Georgia, 65% of Republican voters were very confident or confident in their elections, a Marist poll found. Next door in Ohio, 73% of Republican voters were very confident or confident. Mastriano’s claims of election “inconsistencies” and “widespread fraud” may have influenced would-be voters in ways that didn’t hit Republican voters in other states.