As was the case when Republicans’ plans to repeal and replace Obamacare reached this stage in the legislative process, congressional observers don’t know when exactly senators will vote on the GOP tax plan.
And we likely won’t know until, well, it’s time for the vote.
On Monday, Sen. John Cornyn, the Senate Republicans’ whip, said “Hopefully we will get to the floor on Wednesday.” Asked to clarify if he meant the vote to proceed will be Wednesday, he said yes.
The reconciliation process on the floor is one enormous convoluted and confusing time suck. Once Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell brings the bill up on the floor, which could happen as soon as Tuesday, the clock starts on 20 hours of debate. But it’s not necessarily 20 hours straight — Democrats can deploy a series of dilatory tactics to stretch that process out quite a bit. And the Senate likely won’t stay in session straight through the 20 hours, so when they break, the clock stops.
Once the 20 hours of debate officially comes to an end, then the vote-a-rama starts. This could go for, well, a very long time. Historically, the end of the vote-a-rama would entail a vote on the amended tax bill, then a final vote on the bill. But as with the battle over health care, even this is subject to change. Arizona Republican Sen. John McCain killed that effort in July on an amendment vote earlier than expected.
Cornyn said there will be a series of “manager’s amendments at different points along the way.”
“This is a dynamic process,” Cornyn says, hinting at the fact that the bill is still expected to change in upcoming days.
Bottom line: There’s a lot we simply won’t know for days. That’s OK. The real news for the time being will be on the changes to the plan being agreed to behind the scenes.
All that being said, there isn’t much space for leaders when it comes to this vote. There’s general agreement that it needs to be done this week. Delay, if they can’t wrangle the votes this week, could be fatal. Doesn’t mean it can’t happen, but it would create some serious problems.
Why? Well, as CNN reports: Republicans have a very busy to-do list to address before the end of the year.
One bit of good news, Bob Corker, a key senator who has not said how he’ll vote, sent a fairly upbeat if not definitive message Monday. The Tennessee Republican had repeatedly expressed opposition to adding to the deficit, something the Senate’s version of the plan runs the risk of doing.
“Senator Corker spent the entire Thanksgiving break on the phone with his Senate colleagues and with the administration working on a responsible path forward,” Corker spokesman Micah Johnson said in a statement. “While more work remains, all parties are hopeful that the final bill will be good for our country.”