Remember this?
“I actually did vote for the $87 billion, before I voted against it.”
That was Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry trying, unsuccessfully, to explain his vote(s) on federal funding for the American troops in Iraq and Afghanistan during the 2004 presidential campaign. President George W. Bush took that comment and turned it into this devastating TV ad.
Senate Republicans may find themselves on the receiving end of a slew of ads just like the one Bush ran against Kerry in 2004 after casting a procedural vote on Tuesday to open debate on a GOP-led effort to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act.
Kerry’s argument — and the reason he said the whole voted-for-it-before-I-voted-against-it thing — was that he had voted for a bill to fund the troops via the repeal of a series of Bush-era tax cuts before he had voted against the Republican-favored plan. The Senate votes a lot, Kerry’s case went, and Republicans were cherry-picking what was one in a series of votes.
Sound familiar?
Republican after Republican who got off the fence to support the “motion to proceed” on Tuesday was careful to note that they were not yet supportive of the broader GOP health care bill but rather were expressing their support to allow debate on the measure to begin.
“I voted for the motion to proceed to allow debate to continue and amendments to be offered,” John McCain said on the Senate floor. “I will not vote for the bill as it is today.”
What that logic presumes is that the average voter distinguishes between a procedural vote to start debate on health care and a vote on some sort of actual health care measure.
Here’s some breaking news: They don’t!
Just ask John Kerry. Trying to explain the arcane and complicated ways in which the Senate cast votes — motion to proceed, motion to recommit, final passage etc. — is a total political loser. Peoples’ eyes fog over and it reminds them of all the things they don’t like about Washington. It sounds like gobbledy-gook and double speak to them even if, technically speaking, Kerry DID vote for $87 billion for the war and reconstruction efforts before he voted against it.
(Sidebar: The number of votes that senators take — and the complex ways in which these votes play out — is the leading reason why senators rarely make good presidential candidates. Too many votes to defend.)
Democrats, stung by Kerry’s experience, are already preparing to give Republicans a taste of their own medicine.
“A vote in favor of the motion to proceed will mean deep cuts to Medicaid,” warned Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer before the vote on Tuesday. “It will mean people with pre-existing conditions will be left high and dry, it will mean huge tax breaks for the wealthiest of Americans, it will mean millions will lose their coverage.”
The one silver lining, politically speaking, for Republicans is they have very little vulnerability in 2018. Only Sen. Dean Heller of Nevada, who voted for the motion to proceed, is up for re-election in a state Hillary Clinton won in 2016. And, in total, only 10 Republican seats are up for re-election.
Still, health care — as President Obama and Democrats found out in the 2010 and 2014 elections — is an issue where voters have a long memory. And the “he voted for the heath care bill before he voted against it” attack is a very, very potent one. Just ask John Kerry.