Republican candidate Greg Gianforte was considered the favorite heading into Montana’s special election Thursday night to replace Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke, but that was before the Republican allegedly “body slammed” a reporter during his final campaign event in Bozeman Wednesday.
By midnight Wednesday, the Gallatin County Sheriff’s office had charged Gianforte with misdemeanor assault.
In 24 hours, the race for Montana’s lone congressional seat has turned upside down. Just as questions continue to arise over why Gianforte wasn’t brought into the Sheriff’s office for questioning and what will happen to the Republican now that he must appear in court by June 7, it’s time to count the votes in Montana.
What effect the late-breaking bombshell has on the race is unclear. Montana has a strong absentee voting tradition, with 259,558 votes — of the state’s entire 700,000 registered voters — already banked as of Wednesday night. Turn out is typically lower in special elections.
The question now is whether Republican base voters still show up at the polls Thursday for Gianforte and whether Quist’s Democratic base is even more fired up to vote now.
The congressional race in Montana pits two diametrically opposed candidates against one another. Gianforte: an articulate millionaire and tech entrepreneur who sold his company RightNow Technologies to Oracle in 2012 for $1.8 billion. Quist: a first-time candidate and Montana folk singer who’d amassed moderate Montana fame in the 1970s as a member of the Mission Mountain Wood Band.
The race seemed to be a longshot for Quist. In November, Trump won the state by 20 points and a Republican hasn’t won the congressional seat for two decades. In recent weeks, however, as Trump has grappled with his own controversies in Washington over the ongoing Russia investigation, the race tightened.
Since Republicans in Congress passed a repeal of Obamacare earlier this month, Quist has doubled down on his embrace of health care as a cornerstone of the campaign.
Quist blamed a botched gallbladder strategy when confronted with a series of attacks that he had unpaid property taxes and debts.
Two days ago, the outcome in the Big Sky state seemed more certain. Now, it’s anybody’s guess.