Next stop on the award season train: the 23rd Annual Screen Actors Guild Awards.
The good news: with just a two-hour run time and no host to chew the scenery, this is an award show that you don’t have to DVR to scroll through musical numbers. It’s just actors awarding actors. The better news: The show also happens to be a good indicator of how things will play out at next month’s Oscars.
So which races should you be watching? Here’s our take:
Outstanding performance by a male actor in a leading role (film)
In the last ten years, the SAG Awards’ lead male actor race has been an excellent predictor of what’s to come for Oscars. In fact, it hasn’t been wrong since 2003. (The SAG award went to Johnny Depp that year for his role in “Pirates of the Caribbean.” The Oscar went to Sean Penn for “Mystic River.”)
Should “Manchester By the Sea” star Casey Affleck pull out a win on Sunday, the chances of him besting Ryan Gosling, widely thought of to be his biggest competition in the category, improve greatly.
Meanwhile, the SAG category for outstanding leading film actress should be thought of as slightly less reliable. Three of the last ten SAG statues in this category have gone to women who did not go on to win the Oscar equivalent.
Outstanding performance by a female actor in a supporting role (film)
The Oscar nominees for best actress in a supporting role are direct reflections of how SAG’s supporting category panned out.
While Viola Davis is considered the one to beat after her Golden Globe victory, a win for Naomie Harris (“Moonlight”) or Michelle Williams (“Manchester By the Sea”), two actresses who received heaps of praise for their performances, would certainly make the Oscar race a little more interesting.
In the last ten years, only two actresses have won the SAG for supporting actress and not gone on to win the Oscar.
Outstanding performance by an ensemble in a drama series (TV)
If it wasn’t for “Downton Abbey,” this category could essentially be renamed “Netflix vs. HBO.”
Each network has two shows represented in this category — “The Crown” and “Stranger Things” for Netflix and “Game of Thrones” and “Westworld” for HBO.
The first-year shows face see tough stats: Less than a handful of series have been awarded the drama ensemble award in their first year. (“Boardwalk Empire” and “The Sopranos” are a few examples.) But it has happened.
“Game of Thrones” may have a little momentum since it won its second drama Emmy back in September, but the love among actors for “Downton Abbey” — last year’s winner in this category — should not be underestimated.
This race is a nail-biter.
Outstanding performance by a female actor in a drama (TV)
It’s always fun to make a little history and that’s exactly what Mille Bobby Brown would do if she took the award.
At just 12 years old, the actress would be the youngest SAG award winner ever. (The youngest SAG award nominee was Dakota Fanning, who was nominated at just 7 years old.)
She faces stiff competition, of course. Brown’s “Stranger Things” co-star Winona Ryder is also nominated, as are first-time nominees Claire Foy (“The Crown”) and Thandie Newton (“Westworld”), and three-time nominee in this category Robin Wright.
The odds, according to some, are not currently in Brown’s favor. But, hey, stranger things have happened.
The SAG Awards air January 29 at 8 p.m. ET on TNT and TBS.