Will the government shut down?

Republicans and Democrats are barreling toward a government shutdown at midnight, as the two sides are stuck in a logjam over a coal miners’ health insurance provision that is part of a pending funding bill that would keep agencies operating through the end of April.

But a top Senate Democrat said Friday that it was uncertain whether his party would block a must-pass spending bill over the matter, a sign that a government shutdown may be averted.

“I don’t believe there’s an appetite for shutting down the government,” said Senate Minority Whip Dick Durbin, the No. 2 in the caucus.

At issue is whether to extend the miners’ insurance program — which serves retired miners and their spouses — for one year, as many Democrats are demanding, or for just for the four month length of the GOP-authored spending bill, which is known as a continuing resolution or CR.

Durbin said “I don’t know” if Democrats have the votes to block the bill. He added that he was not whipping his caucus to vote against it and he declined to announce his own position on the bill.

One person who is trying to build support for the measure is Sen. Joe Manchin, D-West Virginia, who was holed up in his office Friday talking to Democrats and some Republicans urging them to block the CR. Manchin, a moderate, had been scheduled to meet with President-elect Donald Trump in New York Friday about a possible job in his administration but it was postponed until Monday so he could deal with the miners’ issue.

Democratic are worried Manchin might leave the Senate to work for Trump, which could lead to a Republican pick up of his Senate seat.

Manchin is leading a pack of coal state Democrats — including Heidi Heitkamp of North Dakota, Sherrod Brown of Ohio and Bob Casey of Pennsylvania, each of whom is up for re-election in two years — to bolster the insurance benefits. Manchin has the support of at least one Republican, his fellow West Virginia Sen. Shelley Moore Capito, while GOP Sen. Rob Portman of Ohio is weighing whether to join the Democrats as well.

But even Manchin wouldn’t predict that he has the 41 votes needed to scuttle the spending bill and force a change to help the miners.

“We have a strong commitment from our caucus, I can tell you that. Very strong,” is as far as Manchin would go when asked specifically late Thursday if he had 41 votes.

One key Democrat has joined Manchin’s battle. Incoming Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer vowed Thursday, “We are going to win this fight.”

There could be political dividends for Democrats making a full-throated fight for the miners, even at the risk of a potentially risky shutdown. Trump won big in coal country and Democrats would love to claw back some of those working class voters.

As he opened the chamber for what’s been expected to be the final legislative day of the year, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell implored Democrats to accept the miners provision as it is and not recklessly shutdown the government over it.

“The funding in the CR is critical to our nation’s defense. It supports overseas operations, the fight against ISIL, and our forces in Afghanistan,” McConnell said. “It provides resources to being implementing the medical innovation bill that we passed earlier this week and to start bringing relief to victims of severe flooding.”

McConnell said also that it is “unlikely” the health benefits would go away in April and that he would fight then to extend them.

“It’s been my intention that the miner benefits not expire at the end of April next year,” said McConnell of Kentucky, home of thousands of miners impacted by the policy. I’m going to work with my colleagues to prevent that. But this is a good time to take ‘yes’ for an answer. We should pass the CR without delay.”

McConnell noted that the bill passed the House with overwhelming bipartisan support Thursday, a sign House Democrats were okay with the four month extension.

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