You know it’s a wild election season when a mere letter from the FBI is enough to spark a global stock market rally.
The Dow soared more than 250 points on Monday morning — its biggest gain in four months — after FBI Director James Comey sent a letter to Congress on Sunday once again clearing Hillary Clinton in its email investigation.
The S&P 500 also jumped 1.4%, ending a nine-day streak of losses, its longest slump since 1980.
The latest FBI bombshell is clearly being interpreted on Wall Street as a boost to Clinton, the favored candidate of investors. It’s not that investors love Clinton. Rather, markets just hate uncertainty — and many investors believe Donald Trump’s unpredictability and anti-trade stance could bring lots of uncertainty.
The FBI letter was “enough to have the futures rocketing,” Michael Block, chief market strategist at Rhino Trading, wrote in a note. “The markets are speaking loudly about Comey’s letter.”
It’s not just U.S. markets in rally mode. Asian markets began rising Sunday evening in the hours after the FBI letter was released. European markets are also up by more than 1% across the board.
In fact, there’s a new Deutsche Bank research that predicts the opposite — a 10% plunge for European stocks if Trump wins on Tuesday.
The Mexican peso, a key proxy for Trump’s odds of winning, soared 2% against the U.S. dollar. The Mexican currency slumped last week when there were positive political headlines for Trump, who has promised to renegotiate NAFTA, the free trade deal with Mexico.
On the other hand, the latest political turbulence was bad news for gold, which tends to rise when investors are fearful. Gold fell 1.3% to $1,287 an ounce, giving back some of its recent Trump-fueled gains.
“Markets have clearly favored Clinton and feared Trump,” Jason Pride, director of investment strategy at Glenmede, wrote in a note to clients.
Pride pointed to Trump’s consistent criticism of current trade and immigration policy and the fact that Clinton is considered more of a known commodity.
Citigroup warned clients last week the S&P 500 could plunge 3% to 5% immediately if Trump is elected.
Of course, Brexit showed that markets can turn just as quickly. Global markets rallied in the days before the U.K. referendum in June amid polls that suggested Britain would vote to remain in the European Union. Yet stocks plummeted around the world after the shocking U.K. vote to leave.