Hillary Clinton leads Donald Trump in Pennsylvania by a comfortable 8-point margin, according to a new poll released Tuesday.
The Monmouth University poll found that Clinton is ahead of Trump 48% to 40% among likely voters. Additionally, Libertarian Gary Johnson gets 6% support, and Green Party candidate Jill Stein is backed by 2%.
That’s in line with a Wall Street Journal/NBC News/Marist poll released shortly after the Democratic National Convention, which showed Clinton with a 9-point lead in the Keystone State.
The picture in Pennsylvania is largely consistent with national political trends in 2016. Clinton leads Trump by wide margins among black, Hispanic and Asian voters, dominating Trump 90% to 5% among that group. Conversely, Trump has a significant edge among white voters, 48% to 39%.
Clinton’s splits compare favorably to 2012, when Barack Obama lost white voters by 15 points and defeated Mitt Romney among non-whites by 71 points.
In addition to their sharp divides along racial lines, Pennsylvania voters’ preferences are also divided by gender and education. Trump leads among white men, 50% to 32%, but is statistically tied among white women, 45% to 46%. And the Republican nominee’s 25-point edge among whites without college degrees evaporates into a 10-point deficit among those with a college education — a full 35-point swing.
Here again, Clinton’s numbers are better than Obama’s in 2012 — most notably among college educated white voters, whom Romney won by 15-points.
Pennsylvania’s politics can be geographically divided as well. Clinton’s support is strong in the state’s southeastern corner — encompassing Philadelphia and its suburbs — where she leads Trump 62% to 29%. According to the poll, this region typically makes up over 40% of the state’s total vote.
Trump, on the other hand, has his base of support in the northeast and central areas of Pennsylvania. The poll finds Trump leading 58% to 28% there, better than Romney in 2012. But Trump is underperforming in the western part of state, where he leads Clinton 47% to 40%.
Overall, Pennsylvania voters have low opinions of both presidential nominees. Thirty-six percent say they have a favorable opinion of Clinton, compared to 51% with a negative opinion. For Trump, just 31% report a favorable opinion while 54% have an unfavorable opinion. And Clinton has a slight edge over Trump on the question of who would do a better job “looking out for the little guy,” though more voters than not say both would do a bad job.
The poll also surveyed voters on the state’s crucial senate race. Democrat Katie McGinty leads GOP incumbent Pat Toomey 45% to 41%.
The Monmouth University poll was conducted between August 26 and 29, surveying 402 likely Pennsylvania voters. It has a margin of error of 4.9 points.