The debate expectations game. A busy October for President Obama. And a curious New Hampshire visit from a former presidential candidate.
These stories and more are a part of the “Inside Politics” forecast this week.
1) Team Clinton tries to raise the debate bar
Hillary Clinton’s campaign has an eye on the 2000 presidential race as it tries to frame the expectations for her upcoming debates with Donald Trump.
Back then, Democrats think they made a mistake by ridiculing George W. Bush and suggesting he wasn’t up to the task of debating Al Gore. When Bush did better than expected, it diminished Gore’s standing.
Fast forward 16 years, and Team Clinton wants a different outcome. Julie Pace of the Associated Press reports the Clinton campaign is determined to set a higher bar for Trump heading into the first debate next month.
“The Clinton campaign feels like she is going to go into the debates with the heightened expectations that normally saddle an incumbent president while Trump will have a low bar to clear,” Pace explains. “We’ll start to see officials reminding reporters and voters that Trump was actually pretty good in his Republican debates and obviously has a lot of experience being on television.”
2) Obama to hit campaign trail
President Obama is expected to return to the campaign trail in a little more than two weeks, stumping for Hillary Clinton in Philadelphia.
And CNN’s Jeff Zeleny reports that is just a down payment.
The President has committed most of his October schedule to the Clinton campaign, with an emphasis on mobilizing African-American voters but also boosting turnout in areas where he did well and Clinton is weak.
“He is setting his sights on Iowa and Nevada, two states with more white populations, where he won and she is struggling mightily,” Zeleny reports. Sources tell him Joe Biden and Michelle Obama will also be stumping for Clinton.
3) Florida voters turning more independent
Florida was the closest of the states that went blue in 2012, with President Obama narrowly squeaking out a victory over Mitt Romney.
So of course it is a major battleground in 2016. And it’s getting more complicated.
Ed O’Keefe of the Washington Post shared his reporting on the rise in unaffiliated, or independent, voters in Florida.
One interesting subset: a big jump in the percentage of younger voters who refuse to align with a major political party.
“Under 30-year-old voters are increasingly unaffiliated: 34% compared to 38% for Democrats and 26% for Republicans,” explains O’Keefe. “They’ve slid considerably. While they have caught up to Democrats overall across the state, it’s a sign of the continuing trouble that both parties are going to have — but especially Republicans this year as they see more young voters, more minority voters, go no party affiliation.”
4) Big-name GOP senators face primary battles
This week there are two primaries that will test GOP incumbents and may provide a snapshot on the anti-establishment fervor that fueled Trump’s candidacy. The big question: Is that movement still bubbling?
Marco Rubio is looking to be renominated for the U.S. Senate in Florida. John McCain is asking the same of Arizona Republicans.
Both are heavily favored, but both also have been less than enthusiastic in their support for Trump. The voting margins Tuesday will be watched closely.
The Atlantic’s Molly Ball delved into the potential lessons.
“In Florida Marco Rubio, the once and future Senate candidate, has a challenger, a wealthy businessman who has made him spend money in that primary, ” Ball says. “In Arizona, Senator John McCain has a challenger who has accused him of not being conservative enough but also made attacks on his age and his health. All these primaries we think the favorite will make it through. But they (the challengers) have put the incumbent or favorite candidate through their paces, made them spend some money. And where the vote totals end up could tell us where the base is.”
5) Kasich’s New Hampshire visit: 2020 vision?
Ohio Gov. John Kasich is in New Hampshire Sunday, but he wants you to understand it has nothing to do with a potential 2020 presidential run. Or with reminding folks in a swing state he is still at odds with Donald Trump.
The timing of his visit isn’t sitting well with prominent Trump supporters in the state. But Kasich insists this is an “all politics is local” visit. The Sununu family was good to him in this year’s presidential primaries and he is looking to return their loyalty.
Kasich is expected to deliver an endorsement of Chris Sununu, who is in a competitive GOP primary for New Hampshire governor. Chris Sununu is the son of former New Hampshire Gov. John H. Sununu and the brother of former New Hampshire Sen. John E. Sununu.
Both John Sununus were Kasich allies in the primaries; Chris Sununu was officially neutral.
But the family believes a Kasich endorsement will be a boost, and GOP sources familiar with the conversations say John E. Sununu — the former senator — made a personal appeal to the Ohio governor.
Kasich told CNN’s Anderson Cooper this past week that everyone should stop thinking about what, if anything, this means for 2020.
But his allies in the state say it is no secret Kasich values the Sununu family loyalty. And it’s no secret Kasich hopes that standing with his friends now will be remembered should there be a Kasich 2020 campaign.