The prospect of more turmoil in Trump land, new efforts by Team Clinton to target millennials — and a plea that could shape how many candidates get debate invites: it’s all a part of our Inside Politics forecast.
1) Turmoil in Trump land could carry into the week ahead
Additions in politics often bring subtraction.
Paul Manafort, for example, resigned Friday as chairman of the Trump campaign, just days after his role was significantly reduced with the hiring of a new campaign manager and chief executive.
And there’s word that more of the team Manafort brought in is thinking about leaving.
Political director Jim Murphy and pollster Tony Fabrizio are among a handful of Trump staffers known to have expressed frustration to close friends in recent days — suggesting the new team has pushed them out of the loop to the point that they have learned of some new campaign plans either from the media or by watching the candidate on television.
Will they head for the exits? Stay tuned. National GOP leaders are worried more departures will cause more questions about a campaign team already considered not up to the challenges of the final months of the campaign.
There is talk of trying to resolve these internal conflicts, or perhaps shift some operatives to the national party payroll. But several sources familiar with the internal Trump campaign turmoil said they would not be surprised if one, two or a few current staffers headed for the exits in the days ahead.
2) A big ad buy — with a giant message
Hillary Clinton has had a lighter public campaign schedule of late, and along the way drawn some barbs from Donald Trump — who questions her stamina to be president.
But the Democratic nominee hasn’t been home resting — she has had a busy schedule of fund-raising, and Jonathan Martin of The New York Times reported the fruits of that effort will be coming soon to battleground state TV screens.
“I understand, from the Clinton campaign, they’re going to put down (an) 8-figure buy here this fall. And the idea behind doing that now is you lock in the best rates possible for the ads. And you send the message that you’ll intensify the onslaught against Mr. Trump.”
3) Millennials a big Clinton target as the effort turns to turnout
Team Clinton is also planning a big new push to win over millennials.
It’s a constituency that tended to favor Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primaries, but the Clinton campaign sees an opening because of millennial doubts about Donald Trump.
As Washington Post’s Abby Phillip explained, the Clinton campaign plans to woo those younger voters by using her Republican rival.
“Millennials are going toward Clinton over Trump in pretty dramatic numbers. Democrats are really trying to lock that in, not just for this election but for many elections to come. Republicans have not done that kind of outreach. Trump certainly has not done that kind of outreach. And that could be a mistake. This is a very large demographic group rivaling the baby boomers. That could haunt them for elections to come.”
4) Kaine gets sent to a tight battleground and the candidate soon follows
Nevada is a holdout at a time many swing states have trended toward Hillary Clinton — and she is sending in a high-powered emissary to get the lay of the land.
Vice presidential candidate Tim Kaine, the Virginia senator, is off to get a firsthand assessment of why Nevada has stayed a virtual dead heat — and CNN’s Nia-Malika Henderson says union workers are one focus. Clinton herself will be in Nevada on Thursday.
“The interesting thing is that demographically, at least racially, it’s very similar to Colorado and Virginia. But yet, it’s still neck-and-neck,” explained Henderson.
“The focus [of the visits] is on union voters, working-class white voters. That’s the difference in the state. It’s 16% union households there. Barack Obama won 60% of those households. So that’s going to be the focus there.”
5) The Libertarians want pollsters’ help — so they can rise in the polls
The first fall presidential debate is a little more than a month away, and Libertarian Gary Johnson needs to improve his poll standing if he is to get an invite.
So he is asking for help — from the pollsters.
One challenge is that not all polls ask about third-party candidates, and Mary Katharine Ham of the Federalist said a petition campaign designed to change that could help Libertarian chances, but in an odd twist might also hurt them.
“Early this summer, mostly by Johnson, the Libertarian candidate supporters, there was a petition drive to basically say to polls please include his name so he can maybe hit 15%. He’s hit double digits in some. But the petition may have worked too well because now all four candidates are included in many of these polls, which may split that anti-establishment thing. So some jockeying will continue to happen as these invitations to the debates go out in the next two, three weeks.”