Contrary to popular belief, Americans who favor Donald Trump are not all poor, unemployed whites who have been hurt by the loss of manufacturing jobs and the rise of immigration.
Gallup, which tracks Trump’s favorability ratings, analyzed the responses of 87,000 Americans over the past year. The results, released Monday, were surprising.
Those who favor Trump are more likely to have higher household incomes and are slightly less likely to be unemployed. They are also more likely to be self-employed and much more likely to be retired.
They also tend to be cloistered in mostly white neighborhoods with few immigrants.
The report’s author, Gallup senior economist Jonathan Rothwell, expected to find more support for Trump in areas with lots of manufacturing jobs and with industries exposed to Chinese imports. But that was not the case.
Those living in areas that had a higher share of manufacturing jobs in 2015 are significantly less likely to favor the Republican candidate. Also, Trump did not have more appeal among those who live in places where industries compete most directly with Chinese imports.
“People in those circumstances, if anything, go towards the Democratic party,” Rothwell said.
Overall, some 65% had an unfavorable view.
But he is more popular in areas where total employment has increased.
The polling results run contrary to the view that Trump appeals to working class Americans suffering from hard times. His message of bringing back manufacturing jobs lost to trade appears to resonate with the crowds at his rallies, but the polling reveals that these folks may not be directly affected by these job losses.
“Standard measures of economic distress aren’t predictive of Trump support,” said Rothwell.
There’s no doubt that those who like Trump are less likely to have a college degree and more likely to hold blue collar jobs. The polling backs this up.
And while Americans who favor Trump have higher incomes and are more likely to be working, the analysis found they have some socioeconomic troubles. They are more likely to live in areas with higher death rates for middle-aged whites and with lower economic mobility for the next generation.
What’s also clear is that Trump appeals more to Americans living in racially and culturally isolated neighborhoods with few non-whites and immigrants. And his positive ratings grow the further one gets from Mexico.
Trump has called for building a wall along the Mexican border and has called Mexican immigrants criminals and rapists. He has also called for a ban on Muslims entering the United States — a stance he has since softened — and said that Muslim-Americans are not reporting terrorists in their communities to authorities.
These isolationist views have won over some Americans.
“Support for Trump is highly elevated in areas with few college graduates, far from the Mexican border, and in neighborhoods that stand out … for being white, segregated enclaves with little exposure to blacks, Asians and Hispanics,” Rothwell wrote.