Donald Trump likes to tout his “tremendous support” among union members. “Workers love me,” he says.
Union leaders are clearly worried. They have been out in force at the Democratic National Convention, rallying around Hillary Clinton. On Monday, AFL-CIO head Richard Trumka declared Clinton is a “champion of working people” and cast Trump as a rich guy who “outsourced America’s jobs to line his own pockets.”
Most of the large unions — AFL-CIO, AFSCME, SEIU, UAW and teachers groups — are supporting Clinton and donating big to her campaign. Unions are among her top donors, according to OpenSecrets.org. In contrast, Trump has only been endorsed by two small unions: the National Border Patrol Council and the New England Police Benevolent Association.
But Jeff Hester of Tennessee thinks union bosses are going to be shocked on election day. He sees a big disconnect between what union leaders are saying and how rank-and-file members feel.
Anger over trade deals
A few months ago Hester started the Facebook page “Teamsters for Trump.” It already has over 4,000 likes. Hester is a member of the Brotherhood of Locomotive Engineers and Trainmen. His union is part of the International Brotherhood of Teamsters, which has surprised many by not endorsing a candidate so far.
“A vote for Trump solidifies our disdain for the establishment,” Hester told CNNMoney. He says he voted Democrat until President Obama. “There is a new party forming, the Party of Trump.”
Hester estimates that 90% of the union families he knows are backing Trump. They’re angry about trade, politics as usual and immigration. He thinks many members are afraid to speak publicly, which is why there could be a surprise on election day, much like the Brexit vote in the United Kingdom where the polls failed to capture the reality on the ground.
The frustration of working class Americans is palpable, even on the DNC floor. As President Obama spoke, numerous delegates held up signs that said “No TPP.” They believe trade has killed U.S. jobs, and they don’t want Obama’s Asian trade deal to pass. Clinton once supported TPP; now she’s against it. Trump, meanwhile, vows to “turn our bad trade agreements into great ones.”
The key number to watch is the 40%. Historically, about 40% of union households vote Republican. That’s held true since the 1970s, according to polling by NBC and the Wall Street Journal.
To really make a difference this election, Trump either needs to bump that support up substantially or ensure that more of his supporters in this group make it to the polls. This is especially true in Ohio and Pennsylvania, two “must win” states if Trump is going to get the 270 electoral votes he needs to win the White House.
“Mitt Romney won every single old mining and mill town outside of Pittsburgh, but he still lost Pennsylvania,” says G. Terry Madonna, a professor at Franklin and Marshall College and a long-time pollster in Pennsylvania. “The white working class vote is not sufficient.”
So far, the evidence isn’t there that Trump is breaking through that 40% barrier. The most recent NBC/Wall Street Journal polling of union homes in May didn’t show a big jump. However, the poll revealed something more alarming for Clinton: a big decline in the number of union households saying they’ll vote Democrat.
Normally, the Democrat gets 60% of the union vote, but this year, the poll only shows about 50%. That suggests many union votes are still up for grabs.
Only 14.8 million union members today
The other key is that union membership declining, so their power as a voter bloc has also diminished. There are 14.8 million union members today, according to Labor Department, down from 16.3 million in 2000.
“The irony is Republicans have done a lot with their policies to decrease the ranks of union workers,” says Susan Demas, editor and publisher of Inside Michigan Politics. Trump is also trying to put Michigan in play. Demas points out that the state now has a “right to work” law that makes it more difficult for unions to convince workers to join.
Many are watching Trump’s support among unions as a proxy for his support among the working class more broadly. Again, it will likely come down to turnout. To win, Trump has to get just about every white, working class voter to the polls or he has to broaden his appeal.
Union leaders are ratcheting up their attacks against Trump to point out how his record with unions isn’t stellar (a lengthy Newsweek article called it “nuanced”). Workers at Trump’s Las Vegas and Chicago hotels had to fight vigorously to unionize, and there have been legal cases in the past where contractors working on Trump’s properties were accused of using illegal immigrant labor.
But for union members like Hester, the key issues are much bigger than that. It’s about border protection, jobs, and a cry for real change in Washington.
“Trump will be a job creator,” Hester says. “I was laid off for almost a year. My union has done nothing to protect our jobs.”