Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders are both on the rise in Wisconsin, according to CNN’s Political Prediction Market.
The market is a real-time index run by the company Pivit and uses input from more than 100,000 users, polling data, news and information from markets to determine the odds on what will happen in politics. The markets change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chances that a candidate or party wins or loses an election.
The trends in the market shouldn’t be confused with public opinion polling, which captures a snapshot in time.
The latest Wisconsin polling, however, also shows strength for Cruz and Sanders ahead of the April 5 primary. The poll has Cruz leading the GOP field with 40%, followed by GOP front-runner Donald Trump at 30% and Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 21% among likely Republican voters, according to a Marquette University Law School survey released Wednesday. Sanders has a 4-point lead over rival Hillary Clinton, 49% to 45% among likely Democratic voters.
That tracks with trends developing in the Political Prediction Marketplace in the past 72 hours in both for the Wisconsin primaries.
Let’s take a look at each party:
Wisconsin — Republicans
Cruz has been on a steady rise in Wisconsin, up 43 points since March 22. The Texas senator’s odds to win the primary were at an all-time high of 86% on Wednesday afternoon.
Trump, meanwhile, has seen marked and consistent descent over the past week. Trump has dropped from 60% odds on March 22, to just 14% odds today. And though Kasich is clocking in at 21% in the Marquette poll, the Pivit market shows he is steady at 1% odds to win the primary.
Wisconsin — Democrats
The Democratic primary market for Wisconsin looks very familiar to many of the highly competitive primary states for Clinton and Sanders. The two started at a 70% — 30% split in Clinton’s favor, which has narrowed and now flipped. Sanders is currently at 59% odds to win Tuesday’s primary, with Clinton at 41% odds.
Potential contested Republican Convention
The very volatile GOP convention market is also showing signs of sensitivity this week. The odds that the GOP fails to nominate a candidate on the first vote (thereby creating a contested convention) has also been on a strong uptick. Over the last week, the odds of a contested convention in Cleveland increased 30 points, from 45% to 75%.
The crowd is likely reacting to the delegate battle between Cruz and Trump, constant news coverage and analysis regarding a contested convention, polling and other data.
Can GOP hold Senate majority?
Odds the GOP holds onto the Senate have dropped 18 points from 80% to 62%, over the last month. As Republican infighting continues, the crowd is less certain of the party’s successes down the ticket. But this is not an all-time low for the market — that came in the midst of the February primaries — 50% odds back on February 16.
You can track all of the markets on the Political Prediction Market.