Ben Carson’s curious campaign return, tensions between Camps Cruz and Kasich, the California dreams of the 2016 hopefuls and two new twists on the Trump effect. It’s all part of our “Inside Politics” forecast, with tomorrow’s headlines today.
1) Let’s talk nuclear security — and Trump!
President Obama plays host in the coming days to a summit dealing with the weighty issue of nuclear security. A second big issue — terrorism — is also a guaranteed addition to the conversation because of last week’s attacks in Brussels.
But there is also an unofficial agenda item: Donald Trump.
The presidential campaign is generating massive global media attention because of Trump and his many provocative policy proposals. It is a sure bet that world leaders will be gossiping about the U.S. campaign as they move from meeting to meeting and have private conversations — including with the sitting president.
Margaret Talev of Bloomberg News set the stage:
“It’s not something probably that President Obama or many of these leaders want to do in front of the mics, but it’s just a subject of endless fascination and speculation. Is he going to get the nomination? Could he possibly win? What would it mean for foreign policy? That would be a big off-mic discussion.”
2) Ben Carson hits the trail for Trump — even as he sometimes criticizes Trump
Ben Carson returns to the campaign trail soon — as a surrogate for GOP front-runner Donald Trump.
And it’s a safe bet he gets a bit more attention than most campaign stand-ins.
The Atlantic’s Molly Ball noted that even as Carson has joined the Trump fold he has continued to take issue with some of the businessman’s positions or rhetoric.
“He can help Trump with a certain type of voter, particularly Christian conservatives. Except he’s not the most enthusiastic surrogate. I think as we saw this week, he still feels a little bit like — like Trump needs to tone it down. When pressed about it, he said he doesn’t like some of the things Trump is saying. He’s not 100% enthusiastic about the whole Trump thing.”
3) California matters in both presidential contests — which raises intriguing questions
Ted Cruz is an evangelical Christian who opposes same-sex marriage. But he could be coming soon to San Francisco, a city long at the forefront of the gay rights movement.
It is one of the many interesting potential wrinkles as campaign 2016 continues and something very rare takes place: The California primary is likely to have a significant role in both presidential nominating contests.
Julie Pace of The Associated Press looked ahead to the June 7 contest and its potential impact.
“Among Republicans right now there is a lot of focus on how to scoop up as many delegates as possible when this race gets to California in June. California holds 50 contests in one day. Each congressional district holds three delegates, plus a bonus 13 for the overall winner. So that means that these Democratic areas of California are just as valuable as Republican areas.”
4) Inside the GOP, a divide about Trump
It is often said that all politics is local. Or personal.
It’s a lesson, or guideline, that proves helpful as one goes through a roster of Republican office-holders and candidates and checks their temperature on the Donald Trump presidential campaign.
CNN’s Manu Raju, just back from a reporting trip to Wisconsin, broke down the divisions within the GOP family.
“There’s the camp that says no way, no how. They’re not going to support him no matter what. That includes members that are running in swing House districts like Carlos Curbelo from Miami, as well as Bob Dold from Illinois. There are the folks that are embracing him. There are very conservative members like the people who met with him last week including Scott DesJarlais of Tennessee. And then the folks who are taking that sort of Paul Ryan approach, that are criticizing on select issues, but saying that they will still support him if he were the nominee. That includes a lot of Senate Republicans who are up for re-election.”
5) Tensions between camps Cruz, Kasich complicate ‘Stop Trump’ efforts
It turns out the enemy of my enemy is not always my friend.
Just ask Ted Cruz and John Kasich.
Both say it would be a disaster for the Republican Party to nominate Donald Trump for president. And both the senator from Texas and the Ohio governor say they are all in to stop Trump.
So they share a goal — but not a strategy to achieve it.
Wisconsin is one example. It is next up on the nomination calendar, April 5, and Cruz allies say Kasich isn’t running strong so he should stand aside and let Cruz have a clear shot at Trump in the Badger State.
Team Kasich says no way, arguing it has time to make up ground and in any event needs to keep amassing some delegates.
Looking ahead, it is Team Kasich arguing that Cruz should focus elsewhere as the calendar moves east to places like New York and Pennsylvania.
But — surprise! — Team Cruz says no way. It doesn’t believe Kasich is strong enough to contest Trump. Plus, like Kasich in Wisconsin, Team Cruz says it is imperative that its candidate continue to scoop up delegates to boost its leverage if there is an open convention.
So, a shared goal but competing strategies.
A top Kasich ally said it is hard for both candidates to deal with the fact, as he put it, that “the stop Donald Trump effort must be focused on JUST that — stopping Trump.”
But getting two proud and ambitious politicians to completely embrace that idea is asking a lot. Maybe too much.
“You have to leave the question of what comes next until that question is relevant,” the Kasich ally said. “And when A and B align to stop C, chances are neither A or B gets the prize themselves.”
That’s a bitter pill for either candidate — or their top aides — to swallow. Which is why the status quo is likely to continue, at least through Wisconsin and perhaps deeper into April.
And that status quo, both Team Kasich and Team Cruz agree, likely benefits Trump.