Following Tuesday’s terrorist attacks in Brussels, the State Department took the rare step of cautioning Americans about traveling to Europe, warning terrorist groups continue to plan “near-term” attacks at sporting events, tourist sites, restaurants and on transportation.
It’s a dramatic move ahead of ahead of the summer travel season, which could discourage tourists and severely impact the European economy. The sophistication of the November terrorist attacks in Paris, which claimed 130 lives, and now Brussels, where 31 people have died, demonstrate that ISIS’ ability to conduct operations in Europe is greater than officials there or in the U.S. believed.
Former Rep. Mike Rogers, who chaired the House Select Committee on Intelligence, said the travel warning constituted a “huge” development that was likely triggered by recent counterterrorism operations in Brussels, which suggested the possibility of more terror by ISIS cells in Europe.
“I think that it points to the fact that there is likely more information that these counterterrorism teams are gathering in Brussels than meets the eye,” said Rogers, a Michigan Republican and now a CNN national security contributor. “What they know is that probably Brussels was not the only target set. Paris was not the only target set. There are likely other target sets in Europe.”
As home to the European Union and NATO headquarters, Brussels has important symbolic value as a European capital of sorts.
Additionally, terrorists have been able to exploit open borders between EU members. The Paris attackers crossed into France from Belgium. And weapons used in the Charlie Hebdo attack in January 2015 were also smuggled across the border.
Weak screening processes of entrants to EU countries is also a problem. Thousands of ISIS fighters, many trained on the battlefields of Syria, are returning home to carry out their jihad in the west, sometimes infiltrating the huge flow of migrants fleeing the violence. Brussels has emerged as a hub for jihadis planning attacks across Europe.
The influx of migrants, coupled with the ability for citizens of the European Union to move freely across member states, has made Europe fertile ground for ISIS operatives. Johan Verbeke, Belgium’s ambassador to the U.S., said a Europe without borders has made Brussels particularly vulnerable.
“The difference between Belgium, France, Germany what have you, is not a difference of borders, it is one single territory,” he said. “Brussels is centrally located from a geographical point of view. And that means that it is perhaps a platform where people come meet, arrange, plan. Brussels has become a very international city which is an asset but can be a liability.”
Intelligence experts say that Belgium, a tiny federation of three distinct regions, is ill-equipped to combat its growing jihadi problem.
“They have nine different police districts. Some of them don’t speak the same language, they have a hard time sharing,” Rogers said. Their intelligence apparatus “is very old. It’s not state of the art. They haven’t invested in it. They’ve been very reliant on other intelligence services, including the United States.”
U.S. officials say the lack of intelligence sharing among European countries, for reasons spanning lack of political will, distrust among some nations and the absence of common EU defense and intelligence body, has exacerbated the problem. Debates over limiting surveillance and other tracking tools on individuals of suspicion further raises questions about their abilities to head off terrorist attacks and catch perpetrators once they occur.
European officials acknowledge procedures need improvement.
“When you are confronted with people ready to die, to blow themselves up, it’s extremely difficult to prevent,” said Gilles de Kerchove, the EU counterterrorism coordinator, in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour. “We’ve had a lot of progress in info sharing and border management, but still not enough.”
Overlapping jurisdictions between law enforcement agencies in Europe remains a problem, de Kerchove said.
“We need to improve communication between databases. Over the years, we have specific databases, we need to make sure we can cross the data, and check the fingerprints. That will require difficult discussions with European Parliament, because we’re sensitive about balance between security and freedom.”