With voters heading to the polls and to caucus in 12 states across the country, Pivit has been monitoring the Political Prediction Market, which is powered by the predictions of 100,000 users in conjunction with publicly available polling and real-money wagering market data, to assess the 2016 field.
Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump hold substantial leads in nearly all of the Super Tuesday primary markets. Both candidates are expected to rack up major victories, according to the prediction market, and add to their delegate counts. But there are also some deeper insights in the prediction market data:
The Democrats:
Hillary Clinton is currently at 95% to win the Democratic nomination — her highest odds to date. Does this make her inevitable? There appears no clear path for Bernie Sanders to claim the nomination, at least according to the data on the market. Even if Sanders wins the Massachusetts primary on Tuesday – he currently has 27% odds — he likely would not break 10% odds to win the nomination. The silver lining states for Sanders: Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont. Sanders is at 99% to win the Vermont primary, and has seen marked gains in Oklahoma primary market. Sanders finds himself at 47% odds to win in Oklahoma as of this afternoon — that’s up 33% over the past two days.
But even if he wins in Oklahoma and Vermont, it won’t be enough for him to make gains in the hunt for the nomination. If the Super Tuesday market odds hold, we expect Clinton’s odds to win the nomination to hit 98% by the end of the night.
The Republicans:
Donald Trump has pulled way ahead of Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz following his increasingly big wins in the New Hampshire and South Carolina primaries. Trump is now at 80% odds to win the GOP nomination, with Rubio and Cruz trailing at 16% and 2%, respectively.
Additionally, Trump leads all Super Tuesday primary markets (except for Texas) with an average of 80-90% odds to win.
Rubio’s last hope: One possible way forward for Rubio would be for him to win delegates in the Texas primary — he needs to get 20% of the vote total – and breathe life into a potential upset in the Florida primary on March 15.
But even that path is a tough one for the Florida senator.
In Texas, Cruz holds a major lead to win his home state — at 81% odds. Trump is at 19%. If both Rubio and Cruz manage to walk away with delegates tonight from the Lone Star State, then Florida becomes key.
The Florida primary market currently shows Trump withy 91% odds to win, and Rubio trailing with 8% odds. It will take a Herculean effort to put Florida in play for Rubio, and that effort starts tonight in Texas.
Cruz’s last hope: While he is the favorite to win in Texas, according to the prediction market data, Cruz does not have strong odds to win the nomination. But if Rubio doesn’t win any delegates in the TX primary, Cruz could come out with the lead in delegate count; some in the political class say that arguably gives him a proxy to challenge Trump.
Most Likely Super Tuesday Upsets:
The most volatile markets right now are:
Trump to Win TX Primary
Sanders to Win MA Primary
Cruz to Win AR Primary.
Volatile markets are a canary in the coal mine for potential upsets; we’ll be watching these markets in particular as polls close to see if Trump, Sanders or Cruz can pull off the win.
The General Election:
Assuming there are no surprises in any of the bevy of states holding contests tonight, we’ll end the night with voters focused on a likely matchup of Clinton and Trump in the general election. Pivit has been tracking the odds for the current slate of candidates to win the Presidency, and Clinton holds the lead.
Clinton is at 63% odds to win the Presidency, with Trump a distant second at 27%.
Looking at it from the Democratic vs. Republican perspective, the Democrats are trading at 63% odds to win the Presidency, with Republicans at 37% odds.