Donald Trump has a five-point lead on Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in what is likely to be the final major poll before the Iowa caucuses, while Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are virtually tied.
The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll gives the billionaire businessman 28% of likely GOP caucus-goers, with Cruz at 23%. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida trails at 15%, with Ben Carson further back at 10%.
On the Democratic side, Clinton holds a narrow lead over Sanders, 45% to 42%.
The margin of error for results on both sides is 4 percentage points.
This is the first time Trump, the nationwide GOP front-runner, has held a lead in a Bloomberg Politics/Register poll. In other recent Iowa surveys, he has been above 30%. For Cruz, however, the poll is down a bit from where he stood in most December and early January polling.
Sanders, meanwhile, is enjoying his highest mark in a Bloomberg Politics/Register poll.
The results were released just two days before Iowa voters begin caucusing, kicking off the 2016 presidential season. The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics Iowa Poll is usually the last major survey before the Iowa caucuses, is closely watched due to its track record of accuracy.
J. Ann Selzer, whose Selzer & Company conducts the Iowa Poll, was the only pollster to accurately predict the 2004 Democratic caucus order. Her final poll prior to the 2008 Democratic caucuses also foresaw Barack Obama beating Hillary Clinton. And in 2012, her poll noted the late surge by former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum — a lonely call at the time.
Last week, the paper endorsed Marco Rubio and Hillary Clinton for the presidential nominations of the Republican and Democratic parties.