Marco Rubio’s complicated path to the GOP nomination comes down to this: attrition.
The Floridian is betting that the race will eventually turn into a one-on-one slugfest between him and Donald Trump — and that the party will coalesce behind him as other establishment-backed candidates drop out, according to interviews with donors, advisers and allies of Rubio.
But unlike Jeb Bush, Rubio is in no hurry to engage The Donald — at least not yet.
He’s betting Ted Cruz, who has staked much of his campaign on winning in Iowa, will lose to Trump next week here in the caucuses, seriously blunting the Texas Republican’s momentum in the rest of February’s primaries and undermining his candidacy. He believes Chris Christie has stumbled dramatically amid slashing attacks from Rubio’s super PACs and comments about his past record.
Rubio allies believe John Kasich cannot succeed beyond New Hampshire — so much so that the senator steadfastly refused to take a shot at the Ohio governor when given the opportunity during a press conference just outside of Des Moines on Tuesday.
And then that leaves Bush. His one-time mentor is unlikely to register much support in Iowa, meaning he must quickly rebound and register a strong performance in the Granite State and South Carolina, otherwise, he will face major pressure to quit.
And what Rubio allies believe will help him as well: Anxiety within the party establishment that the more moderate candidates are tearing each other down, and that it’s time to unite behind an alternative.
Utah Republican Sen. Orrin Hatch, one of Bush’s biggest supporters on Capitol Hill, became the latest voice to raise concerns over Bush’s super PAC, Right to Rise, lashing Rubio across the airwaves.
“I don’t know who in the world is doing this. That’s not him. He doesn’t control the PAC,” Hatch told CNN. “I don’t think it’s a wise thing to do.”
In short, Rubio is trying to remain the second choice of voters — until he becomes the first.
A national CNN/ORC poll released Tuesday found Rubio sitting in third at 8%, well behind Trump (41%) and Cruz (19%). Last week, a CNN/ORC Iowa survey found Rubio in third place with 14%, while the Florida senator tied for third with Bush in a recent CNN/WMUR New Hampshire poll with 10% each.
So his allies believe it makes little sense to launch a full-throated assault on Trump now.
“The lion doesn’t go for the lead zebra in the pack,” said one GOP operative closely following the race. “You pick off the slowest zebras in the pack.”
First step: Take out Cruz
To become a unity candidate, as Rubio is trying, he believes he must first see Cruz fail in Iowa. To that end, Rubio is trying to peel away voters from the Texas Republican, hailing himself as the “consistent conservative” — one of Cruz’s main campaign themes. He contends that he is the “anti-establishment” candidate, regularly pointing to his 2010 Senate race when he routed the choice of the GOP leadership.
And since November, Rubio has intensified his attacks on Cruz more than any other of his rivals, trying to portray the Texas Republican as a politically craven opportunist lacking conservative convictions.
On Monday, Rubio lashed Cruz’s role as a private attorney representing a Chinese tire company in 2010. And on Tuesday, Rubio said that Cruz was getting worried about his slipping standing in the Iowa polls.
“I think Ted is under a lot of pressure over the last few days,” Rubio told reporters here. “People are learning more about his record and it’s hurting him. He’s dropping in the polls. He’s losing to Donald. I can tell you, though, I don’t think this election is who can beat up on the other Republicans the best. Ultimately, we’re going to have to bring this party together at the end of this process.”
As he’s criss-crossed the state, Rubio has tried to project himself as that unity candidate — someone who can bridge the divide between the party’s warring factions. And although he doesn’t bring up Trump’s name proactively, he makes an implicit criticism by saying: “Being angry is not a plan.”
“We can’t win if we’re not together,” Rubio told about 100 voters here at Central College in Pella, just outside of Des Moines.
Risks to the strategy
Rubio’s tactics don’t come without their inherent challenges. Cruz could still win in Iowa, giving him momentum — and cash — as he heads into the February primaries and southern contests in March. Rubio could stumble, giving Bush an opportunity to rebound in New Hampshire and turn around his struggling candidacy.
The entire complexion of the race can change following the debates, including Thursday’s high-stakes session in Des Moines.
And Rubio, who has already been hit by millions in attack ads, is bound to be hit by much more from Bush’s super PAC, something that imperils the Florida senator’s standing.
“This is a political campaign,” said Paul Lindsay, spokesman for Bush’s super PAC. “And if Marco Rubio can’t defend his record with Republican primary voters, he will have a hard time doing it against Hillary (Clinton) and the Democratic machine.”
Still, working to Rubio’s advantage is that he is banking on a national strategy, unlike many other candidates, who are hoping to pull off a major victory in one state or the other.
Rubio believes he can win either South Carolina or Nevada, but even if he remains in the top three in the first four states, Rubio would win delegates because states award delegates proportionally until March 15. After then, the states award delegates on a winner-take-all basis.
So if Rubio won a state, like his home state of Florida that votes March 15, he could have enough delegates to suddenly take the lead.
Still, all this counts on Trump not steamrolling his way through the nominating process. And polls consistently show Trump dominating nationally.
So Rubio is betting he will consolidate his rivals’ support once they drop out — whether it’s Glenn Buck or the party establishment.
That, Rubio’s allies hope, could be enough to stop The Donald — even if it takes weeks or months.
Indeed, party leaders are eager to find a candidate to get behind and end months of acrimony threatening GOP chances.
“It’s sort of a traditional concern that you’re not beating each other up in the primary that you’re damaged going into the general election,” said Sen. John Cornyn, No. 2 Senate Republican. “That’s not new. It’s a valid concern. I think all of the candidates ought to be cautious. But it’s hard to be cautious when you’re in a life or death fight for your political life.”