As Donald Trump dominates the GOP field nationally and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz surges in Iowa, the Republican presidential rivals are in a dead heat in CNN’s Political Prediction Market.
The billionaire mogul leads with a 34% chance of capturing the Republican nomination, knocking Florida Sen. Marco Rubio out of first place.
Trump is followed by Cruz at 31% and Rubio, who is currently at 30% chance of winning the Republican nomination on the Political Predication Market — an online game that factors polls and other user data to predict outcomes for the 2016 election.
Rubio’s odds of capturing the nomination rose steadily following CNN’s first Republican presidential debate in September, peaking at 49% on November 23. And so far, while he struggles to make headway in the polls, no other Republican candidate has seen a peak as high in the market this election cycle.
At 34% Trump is now at his highest peak in the market, and his second lead, as he topped the crowded filed with 26% odds of capturing the nomination the week of September 6. That came amid an intensifying feud with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who led in the market early on.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market, administered by the firm Pivit, factors polls and other elements and invites users to predict where the election will go. The markets change as the public weighs in on the increasing or decreasing chance that a candidate or party wins or loses an election. It should not be confused with a survey from real voters.
As Trump defies the conventions of presidential politics and breaks through ceilings that pundits have predicted, the odds of him capturing the nomination have steadily increased on the market.
Bush is in a distant fourth place at 5%, followed by New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4%.
The remaining Republican candidates are all at a mere 1% or 0% change of capturing the nomination.
The nation’s first primary in New Hampshire is set for February 9.