Florida Sen. Marco Rubio’s odds of winning the Republican nomination for president have been rising steadily since the CNN Republican debate last month, according to the Political Prediction Market, a game that invites users to test their political foresight.
Rubio now leads the crowded Republican field, breaking out with 33% chance of winning the nomination. Meanwhile, businessman Donald Trump and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush are tied at 17% odds each.
Public opinion polls tell a different story. Trump is still the national GOP front-runner in recent polls. But he has seen his lead erased in the early caucus state of Iowa, where Ben Carson is now in command in the three most recent polls.
CNN’s Political Prediction Market, however, is not a poll asking who a likely voter supports. It is a live online prediction game administered by a company called Pivit. It considers polls and other factors, including input from online players about who they think will actually win.
Rubio’s odds of winning the nomination have jumped 20 percentage points since the CNN Republican debate on September 16, even though his support in polls has not shown nearly that level of increase. Bush’s odds of winning the nomination dropped two percentage points, according to the Political Prediction Market, while Trump’s odds are up six points.
Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina’s odds of winning the nomination are down 13 percentage points from 17% to 4%. Fiorina, who surged in the polls after a standout debate performance, has not been able to maintain that momentum post-debate.