Republican presidential candidates are flooding inboxes all across the country right now. Ted Cruz warns he may be “dropping out.” George H.W. Bush seeks help for his son, Jeb. Rand Paul begins by asking concernedly: “Are you okay?”
All in desperate search of a click and a dollar.
Republican candidates, many of whom are gasping for air in a historically crowded field, are charging toward Wednesday’s midnight fundraising deadline that will offer hard evidence about whether they can mount a serious bid for the White House.
And with some Republicans — like Scott Walker, who ran out of cash and dropped out — saying the field needs to be narrowed quickly, a poor fundraising quarter may be just the thing that pushes candidates out the door.
“It’s an imperfect measure, but everybody seems to look at every speck of evidence,” said Fred Malek, a top GOP fundraiser who thinks too much emphasis is placed on the Sept. 30 quarterly reporting deadline. “People are hungry for metrics of any sort to demonstrate a candidate’s viability and progress.”
Candidates acknowledge that the numbers next month will be parsed to winnow the field. Rand Paul, for instance, posted some of the most disappointing numbers of the second quarter and does not enjoy the support of well-funded super PACs.
“Fundraising success is seen as representing campaign success,” Paul says, perhaps begrudgingly, in a 3-minute audio message on his donation page. “So please give as much as you can.”
There’s nowhere for candidates to hide: the fundraising reports for July, August and September must be made public by Oct. 15. And since the next Republican debate isn’t until Oct. 28, pressure will grow on candidates to show they can do more than just hang around.
Campaigns on Wednesday will print out their final call lists, dash off pleading emails and wrap up their final cross-country whirlwind tour. They know that early-state endorsers, super PAC donors and chattering odds-makers are watching closely.
“Who is the best prepared? Who is the best resourced to go the distance?” said Iowa Christian leader Bob vander Plaats, who said he will make one of the primary’s most coveted endorsements around Thanksgiving in part based on Wednesday’s numbers. “Money is also a sign of momentum.”
Republican strategist Brad Blakeman put it simply: “If you’re leading in the polls and you want to be taken seriously, show me the money.”
The outsiders
A trio of outsiders has rocketed to the top of the GOP field since the last financial snapshots, showing how fluid the race remains this summer, but also raising questions as to whether the insurgent candidates on the rise have enough financial muscle to match the enthusiasm they have on the ground.
One candidate who appears to already have proven himself is Ben Carson, who very well could raise the most money this quarter despite never having before run for office. Carson, who has captured the hearts of Christian conservatives in Iowa and elsewhere, will announce a total of around $20 million — though it is unclear if he burnt a significant amount of money to raise it.
Bush may have the opposite problem: His sagging campaign started wealthy and Republicans will judge him based on whether it still is. The former Florida governor has been dogged by reports toward the end of the quarter that his unparalleled fundraising machine — groomed by the networks of two ex-presidents — was slowing down.
Bush raised $11 million in just the two weeks he had an open bank account in the last quarter, but Bush rivals are likely to be eager for signs that there isn’t much beyond the early donors.
“The low-hanging fruit has been picked, so now you’re down to all the folks who haven’t quite decided where they want to be,” said Bush bundler Fred Zeidman during a break between fundraising calls. “I don’t see the panic in our campaign that I’m seeing in some of the others.”
And other Republican fundraisers say they’ll be looking to whether Carly Fiorina, the former executive of Hewlett-Packard is able to seize on her hype after a pair of strong debate performances. But some say they won’t hold evaluate her as harshly as they will other hopefuls who have had a full quarter to bask in the limelight of donors as a top-tier candidate.
Back-of-the-pack
Also anxious for cash: the back-of-the-pack Republican contenders, who can be placed on a death watch of sorts should they post an anemic fundraising quarter.
Paul has been fundraising off his fight in Congress to defund Planned Parenthood, saying in one missive titled “COWARDS” that backers should dig deeper to show support for his fight against the abortion provider. Democratic fundraising groups have similarly looked to raise money off the shutdown talk.
The other theme in last-minute fundraising pitches has been to dump on Scott Walker and Rick Perry, two presidential candidates forced to drop out after their contributors didn’t give enough directly to the campaigns.
“Since TWO of my fellow conservative candidates have been forced to drop out due to lack of funds, it is more urgent now than ever that I have your support before the hard cutoff of my fundraising deadline on Sept. 30,” Cruz wrote his email list.
Both Walker and Perry did have high-powered super PACs behind them, and the sums raised on next month’s report will pale in comparison to what super PACs collect in checks that aren’t subject to donation limits. But Walker and Perry’s early exits, Republican fundraisers said, are making the stakes for days like Wednesday even starker.
Big donors also will be watching how the money is spent. Walker’s campaign was pilloried for spending too much, too soon.
“If I’m a donor, I want to know where the money’s going before I donate. I want to measure: Do you have the infrastructure in battleground states?” Blakeman said. “Cause if you don’t, what am I donating for?”