The stage is set for the CNN Reagan Library Debate next week in California, with Carly Fiorina joining 10 other leading Republican presidential candidates at 8 p.m. ET.
Thursday marked the close of the two-month window for determining eligibility based on averages of national polls. The results were based on 14 polls including interviews with more than 6,000 potential Republican primary voters. The top 10 candidates overall — plus Fiorina, whose average support places her within the top 10 in polls conducted after the first debate held August 6 — have all qualified for the 8:00 p.m. debate next Wednesday in Simi Valley. The remaining four candidates will appear during an earlier debate beginning at 6:00 p.m.
The overall rankings based on an average of all qualifying polls for the 16 candidates who met the requirements for participation are:
1) Donald Trump: 23.929
2) Jeb Bush: 11.500
3) Scott Walker: 9.429
4) Ben Carson: 8.929
5) Ted Cruz: 6.286
6) Marco Rubio: 5.643
7) Mike Huckabee: 5.571
8) Rand Paul: 4.714
9) John Kasich: 3.214
10) Chris Christie: 3.143
11) Carly Fiorina: 2.229
12) Rick Perry: 1.814
13) Rick Santorum: 1.214
14) Bobby Jindal: 1.057
15) George Pataki: 0.529
16) Lindsey Graham: 0.471
The rules for inclusion were amended late last month so that any candidate who made the top 10 in an average of polls conducted after the Fox News/Facebook debate held on August 6 would also be included in the later debate. Fiorina is the only candidate to move from the bottom six to the top 10 in that post-debate average. Here are the averages for qualifying polls conducted after the August 6 debate and released by September 10:
1) Donald Trump: 27.8
2) Ben Carson: 14.0
3) Jeb Bush: 9.2
4) Ted Cruz: 7.4
5) Scott Walker: 5.6
6) Marco Rubio: 5.4
T-7) Carly Fiorina: 4.4
T-7) Mike Huckabee: 4.4
9) Rand Paul: 3.2
10) John Kasich: 3.6
11) Chris Christie: 2.8
12) Rick Perry: 1.08
13) Rick Santorum: 0.8
14) Bobby Jindal: 0.56
15) George Pataki: 0.44
16) Lindsey Graham: 0.28
Former Virginia governor Jim Gilmore, who participated in the August 6 debate, did not meet the criteria for inclusion in next Wednesday’s debate. Candidates were required to average 1% support in any three polls released during the two-month window. Out of the 14 polls released during that time, Gilmore had 1% support in only one poll.
The post-debate polls were also used to determine the order that the candidates would appear on stage. Trump will anchor the center of the stage for the 8:00 p.m. debate, flanked by Carson to his right and Bush to his left. Walker, Fiorina, Kasich and Christie, in that order, will stand to Bush’s left, while Cruz, Rubio, Huckabee and Paul will appear to Carson’s right.
In the earlier debate, Santorum and Pataki will stand to the left and Jindal and Graham will be on the right. Perry was originally tabbed to be center stage before he announced on Friday that he was dropping out of the race.
The overall average includes results from a Fox News poll released July 17; a Washington Post/ABC News poll released July 20; a CNN/ORC poll released July 26; a Quinnipiac University poll released July 30; a NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll released August 2; a Monmouth University poll released August 3; a Fox News poll released August 3; a Bloomberg Politics poll released August 4; a CBS News poll released August 4; a Fox News poll released August 16; a CNN/ORC poll released August 18; a Quinnipiac University poll released August 27; a Monmouth University poll released September 3; and a CNN/ORC poll released September 10.