He’s surged in the polls, drawn massive crowds to campaign events and relished attacking his opponents.
Will Donald Trump next conquer the debate stage?
After months of campaign announcements and a frenzy of activity in the early voting states, the race for the Republican presidential nomination kicks off in earnest Thursday night when 17 candidates descend upon a downtown sports arena here for the first GOP primary debate of the 2016 election season.
It is unfamiliar territory for Trump, the New York real estate mogul whose dominance in the race has both stunned — and aggravated — establishment Republicans. The debate will also offer former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush an opportunity to move past a shaky few days that included controversial comments about women’s health care along with an uncomfortable performance at a New Hampshire candidate forum.
Trump has tried to quell expectations, downplaying any preparations ahead of this week. But it’s clear that Thursday night has the potential to be a turning point both for his candidacy and by extension a party that is desperate to win back the White House. National Republicans have at times seemed unsure of what to make of the fact that a former reality TV star with no filter and no obligations to the party has unexpectedly become the GOP’s standard-bearer.
“No one has more to gain or lose than Trump,” said former House Speaker and 2012 presidential candidate Newt Gingrich. “Trump can go in there and feel presidential and the average American can say: you know, behind the strong language and the vivid words, there’s a guy that can be in the Oval Office. He comes out of there enormously strengthened.”
Trump heads into the debate with a solid lead in the national polls.
A Bloomberg survey released Tuesday had Trump at 21%, handing the wealthy businessman a double-digit lead over both Bush, who was at 10%, and Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, who was at 8%.
He’ll join nine other candidates on the prime-time debate stage, including Bush, Walker, Mike Huckabee, Ben Carson, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Rand Paul, Chris Christie and John Kasich. The remaining seven candidates — Rick Perry, Rick Santorum, Bobby Jindal, Carly Fiorina, Lindsey Graham, George Pataki and Jim Gilmore — will participate in a debate earlier in the evening.
The big wild card during the prime-time debate is which Trump shows up. Will it be the cantankerous, quick-tempered Trump who last month gave out Graham’s cell phone number on national television and mocked Perry by claiming the former Texas governor wears glasses just to look smart? Or will it be a slightly toned down and gentler Trump, who said he wasn’t interested in attacking his competition unless he was first provoked?
“If Donald Trump is allowed tomorrow night to have the conversation that he wants to have, talk about whatever Trump wants to talk about without really being challenged, then he wins the debate,” said Doug Heye, a former spokesman for the Republican National Committee.
The debate will also shed light on whether Trump is taking real steps to brush up on policy.
So far, the real estate mogul has managed to ride high in the polls while making sweeping and grandiose promises, like building a wall along the U.S.-Mexico border to keep out illegal immigrants.
But pressed for details on complicated policy issues like health care or financial regulations, Trump hasn’t offered many specifics. Jeff Chidester, a conservative radio host in New Hampshire who advised tea party star and former presidential candidate Michele Bachmann, said even the voters who are infatuated with Trump’s style now will want to hear substance at some point.
“What is true in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina is now people want to hear exactly what he’s going to do,” Chidester said. “They want to hear bullet points for policies and I think it could be disastrous for him on Thursday if he doesn’t come out and really show at least a bridge to talking about policy in specific points.”