The race to be the most anti-abortion candidate in the 2016 Republican field is on.
Sen. Lindsey Graham became the latest Republican presidential contender to stake his claim on the issue when he introduced a bill on Thursday banning abortions after 20 weeks of pregnancy, when abortion opponents say fetuses can feel pain.
That followed Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker’s endorsement last week of a similar ban in his own state, which drew criticism because he has said he would sign such a bill without exceptions in the case of rape or incest.
Nearly every Republican running in 2016 has backed the 20-week abortion ban, and some have gone even further, with former Texas Gov. Rick Perry signing a 20-week ban into law in 2013.
A federal appeals court this week upheld that law, a ruling that abortion rights groups say could put most abortion clinics in the state at risk of closure. Perry again defended the law this week, calling it an “issue of women’s health.”
Graham’s proposal has been enthusiastically endorsed by anti-abortion activists, with Marjorie Dannenfelser, head of the pro-life Susan B. Anthony List, praising Graham’s “strategic leadership” and “tenacity” in introducing the bill.
It’s a clear political winner for the candidates as they jockey for support from the social conservative voters that can be decisive in some of the early nominating states, like Iowa and South Carolina.
And it’s telling that both Walker and Graham are maneuvering to get out ahead on the issue, as both may have a long way to go in earning their stripes with conservative activists. Graham is generally eyed warily by conservatives for his willingness to compromise with Democrats, his declaration that man-made climate change exists and recent embrace of transgendered individuals.
Walker, meanwhile, must reassure conservative skeptics that remember an ad he ran during his 2014 re-election fight touting his support for legislation that “leaves the final decision to a woman and her doctor.”
But the issue holds political peril for the party looking towards the general election, where presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton could use the proposal to exploit an already sizable advantage with female voters. Clinton herself tweeted her opposition to “a group of senators” making women’s health decisions for them on Thursday afternoon, a reference to Graham’s bill.
“A group of senators trying to make medical decisions for millions of women: That isn’t leadership — it’s malpractice. -H” she tweeted.
And the GOP’s embrace of the ban could severely damage their chances at the Senate level, where they’re facing their toughest odds in years and a real risk of losing control of the upper chamber next cycle.
They’re defending 24 seats to Democrats’ 10, with a handful of those incumbents in states President Barack Obama won last cycle. If Graham’s bill comes up for a vote it would put vulnerable Republican senators running for re-election in tough toss-up states — like Sens. Rob Portman of Ohio and Kelly Ayotte of New Hampshire — in a difficult spot.
Concerns over the potential political fallout initially derailed efforts to bring a 20-week abortion ban up in the House. Rep. Renee Ellmers, the North Carolina Republican who led the effort to spike the bill, said at the time that “the first vote we take, or the second vote, or the fifth vote, shouldn’t be on an issue where we know that millennials — social issues just aren’t as important (to them).”
Those disagreements, however, were eventually ironed out, and the House passed the 20-week ban in May. That version of the bill remains stalled in the Senate.
Proponents of the proposal argue that a ban at 20 weeks is widely popular even among women that may consider themselves broadly pro-choice, and that it’ll be difficult for Democrats to message against what they see as a common-sense bill.
Gallup found last week that, for the first time in seven years, a majority of Americans identified themselves as “pro-choice.” But a Washington Post poll in 2013 found an even greater portion, 56%, support a ban on abortions after 20 weeks.
But Democrats were already warning that Republicans would face consequences if the bill comes up for a vote.
Marcy Stetch, spokeswoman for the pro-abortion rights women’s group EMILY’s List, noted that there wasn’t a similar push for the legislation from the 2008 and 2012 GOP presidential fields and suggested that indicated a shift in the party.
“Republicans’ extreme abortion ban legislation is a prime example of how far to the right the Republican Party has moved,” she said. “Women are watching and will hold them accountable at the ballot box.”