Last week I listed teams that I thought would finish #17-24 in the overall MLB standings this season – this week we will review teams #16-9, all of which should finish at or above .500 and have legitimate hopes of reaching the postseason.
16.) Miami Marlins (77-85, 4th in NL East, T-18th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: SP Nathan Eovaldi, 3B Casey Mcgehee, 1B Garrett Jones
Key Additions: SP Mat Latos, SP Dan Haren, 2B Dee Gordon, 3B Martin Prado, 1B Michael Morse
Outlook: If not for Jose Fernandez’ Tommy John surgery last summer, the Marlins may well be my wild card favorite – and I may be underselling them a bit even with him out until mid-summer. When he’s healthy, he’s amazing, and a successful return in June/July would be a TREMENDOUS boost for this club. However, I think they are a few pieces short of being an 85-win club.
Let’s start with the positives: Stanton is the best slugger in the game; Yelich and Ozuna are young, promising outfielders as well – the Marlins have (arguably) the best young outfield in MLB; the pitching staff should be solid at the top with Latos, Alvarez, and Cosart.
Now the bad news: they are average or worse at every infield position; the back of the rotation is questionable; and there’s very little depth at any position in case of injury.
As usual, the Marlins are a hard team to forecast because of their youth and the offseason changes. They figure to be better this season, and there’s a solid case for them being the second best team in the division (I think they will be by 2016). However, I think the offense is still a bit short and Fernandez cannot be counted on to contribute much in 2015, so I think Miami is still a year away. Call it 80-83 wins for the Marlins.
Reasons they could be worse: An injury to Stanton, or to one of their established starting pitchers, would likely end any chance of contention for the Marlins.
Reasons they could be better: There’s a TON of young talent here with a lot of upside. If the young hitters keep improving and the starting pitching holds, this could easily by an 85-88 win team.
Chances to contend: The division seems out of reach – Washington is in a class by themselves – but a wildcard is a possibility. Call it 10% for the division, 50% chance of contending for a wildcard.
15.) Chicago White Sox (73-89, 4th in AL Central, T-21st in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: DH Adam Dunn, RF Dayan Vicedo
Key Additions: LF Melky Cabrera, DH/1B Adam LaRoche, SP Jeff Samardzija, RP David Robertson, RP Zach Duke
Outlook: This is the most improved team in the division BY FAR; I really like the moves they made this winter. The Sox had a lot of pieces in place, but a lot of holes to fill – especially on the mound – and Samardzija, Robertson, and Duke should go a long way towards filling those holes. With ace Chris Sale and capable #2 Jose Quintana already in the rotation, Samardzija can slide right in as #3 instead of being expected to carry the staff. The bullpen was a mess last season, but Robertson gives them the power closer they’ve lacked for years and Duke gives them a lefty matchup weapon they simply did not have in 2014.
The offense was already improving – they were an average AL offense in 2014, after being among the worst in 2013 – and adding Cabrera and LaRoche should only improve that. They have some on-base issues – as usual, their lineup is based more on power and less on walks – but they should score their share of runs.
Overall they should finish .500 of better and compete in a wild 4-team race for the Central. I’d pick them to finish higher if I wasn’t worried about Sale’s health – he’s already out with a broken foot and if he misses any significant time, it really damages the Sox’ chances. As it is, I’m saying 81-84 wins for Chicago.
Reasons they could be worse: There’s little depth in the rotation – an injury to any of the Big Three would really hurt. Also, Jose Abreu was a revelation as a rookie, and he could regress this season.
Reasons they could be better: They have the best top-3 starters in the division now, and if the bullpen holds up they could easily be a contender for the division crown.
Chances to contend: I’m saying 65%. I’m being conservative in the rankings with the Sox, but in my heart I think they are an excellent sleeper choice for the playoffs.
14.) Detroit Tigers (90-72, 1st in AL Central, T-5th in MLB in 2014)
Key losses: SP Max Scherzer, RF Torii Hunter, SP Rick Porcello
Key Additions: CF Anthony Gose, LF Yoenis Cespedes, SP Alfredo Simon, SP Shane Greene
Outlook: The Tigers just feel like a team on the edge of a major decline…and I believe that decline will start in 2015. Losing Scherzer REALLY hurts this team. With their shoddy bullpen they are extremely reliant on effective, durable starting pitching and 220 Cy Young-caliber innings just went out the door. They also traded Porcello, who wasn’t great by any means but had certainly proven his durability. The rotation now is Price (ace), Sanchez (effective but fragile), Verlander (ineffective the past two seasons).
There’s absolutely no depth – if any of those guys gets hurt, the drop off will be severe. The bullpen brought the same names back, and while they probably cannot be much worse than they were in 2014 they don’t project to be a whole lot better. In general, the Tigers have a lot of questions on the mound and they will likely be below-average at run prevention, especially considering the average-to-poor team defense.
The offense will have to carry the team again, and certainly they have some major firepower in Miguel Cabrera and Victor & JD Martinez. They added power in Cespedes, and Nick Castellanos should improve at 3B (he’s only 23). The questions are in CF and at SS – Gose and Iglesias project as good defenders, but will either hit enough? Can Cabrera and Victor Martinez avoid injury/decline? Was JD Martinez’ amazing 2014 campaign a breakout or a fluke? This was arguably the best offense in MLB last season, and they will have to approach that level to win the division again.
I see a mess brewing on the hill, likely decline from Cabrera and Martinez, and generally an average team here. The Central is so hard to sort out – one last division title from this group would not shock me – but they are just as likely to collapse as they are to contend. There’s a much wider range of possibilities with this team, so I’m predicting 78-85 wins for Detroit.
Reasons they could be worse: Pick one…a starter gets hurt, Cabrera declines suddenly, Martinez starts showing his age, the bullpen is as bad as in 2014. Any of that could doom this team to an 85-90 loss season.
Reasons they could be better – there’s still a Lot of star power here, and ownership is desperate for a title – I expect them to empty the farm system if needed for one last shot at glory in July. If they stay healthy and plug a couple of holes, this team could still win 90 games.
Chances to contend: 50/50. Seriously, this team is as high-variance as any established team in the game. Anything from 75-90 wins would not surprise me in the least.
13.) St. Louis Cardinals (90-72, 1st in NL Central, T-5th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: SP Shelby Miller, RF Oscar Taveras, RP Pat Neshek
Key Additions: RF Jason Heyward, RP Jordan Walden
Outlook: The Cards’ 90-72 record camouflaged a pretty severe decline for the team overall, especially on offense. After scoring 762, 765, and 783 runs from 2011-13, the Cards dropped all the way to 619 runs last season – outscoring their opponents by only 16 runs. Typically, a team with that run differential wins 81-84 games, so the Cards were exceptionally fortunate to win 90 and the division. Normally, I’d anticipate some positive regression after a drop like that, and to be sure there are reasons for optimism – Heyward is a massive upgrade in RF, and there’s a chance that a healthy Yadi Molina can regain his 2013 form – but I see just as many reasons to believe this team will again struggle for runs.
First off, most of their key hitters are aging – Molina is 32 and has a LOT of mileage, especially for a catcher; Matt Holliday is 35, and Jhonny Peralta is 33. All three showed signs of decline last season, and there’s no reason to expect that trend to reverse once players hit their middle 30’s.
There are some potential breakout players, especially 2B Kolton Wong – but this team finished dead-last in the NL in home runs, and I don’t see that power coming back with this lineup. This was an average offense at best a year ago, and that seems like a fair estimate for how they will perform in 2015.
The pitching carried St. Louis last season, but I see reasons to expect decline here as well – they had to trade Miller to acquire Heyward, and while he’s not lived up to his ‘ace’ potential Miller was durable, providing 180+ innings that will need to be replaced. Wainwright has been amazing three of the past four seasons – but can he keep up the pace? He was a bit ‘hit-lucky’ last year, and he will likely regress a little.
Most worrisome, however, is the team’s reliance on John Lackey and Carlos Gonzalez. The former has not been above-average in over five years while the latter has been decent as a reliever but horrible in the rotation the past two seasons. The rotation has been a team strength for several seasons, but I definitely predict a decline this year. The bullpen remains solid, perhaps even underrated with the addition of Walden.
Overall this is an aging team, and the tragic death of Taveras (their top prospect) will hurt them for years to come. Cards’ management is exceptional and I expect they will quickly reload, but I expect 2015-16 to be tougher years in St. Louis as they figure that out – I’m saying 81-84 wins for the Cards this season.
Reasons they could be worse: If Wainwright goes down, all bets are off – they could get bad in a hurry. They also don’t have much depth – an injury to Molina, Holliday, or the underrated Matt Carpenter could also push them below .500.
Reasons they could be better: They still have a lot of above-average players and a smart front-office. If they stay healthy, and Wong/Martinez continue to improve, they could easily contend.
Chances to contend: From here on up every team SHOULD contend, and the Cards have a good chance of staying relevant into September. I’ll say 50% chance of contending for the division, 70% for the wildcard, and 20% chance of earning a postseason berth.
12.) Toronto Blue Jays (83-79, 3rd in AL East, 14th in MLB)
Key Losses: 3B Brett Lawrie, CF Colby Rasmus, LF Melky Cabrera, DH Adam Lind, SP JA Happ, SP Marcus Stroman (torn ACL), RP Casey Janssen
Key Additions: 3B Josh Donaldson, 1B Justin Smoak, LF Michael Saunders, C Russell Martin
Outlook: I went into this expecting to pick Toronto to win the AL East…they had a top offense in 2014, and they added Josh Donaldson and Russell Martin! With that lineup, how could they lose? And the fact is, this may be the deepest, most powerful lineup in 2015 even if Martin fades a little from his career-year of 2014.
They could get 100 home runs from Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion; they have an ideal leadoff man in Reyes, and either Saunders of Martin would be a good #2 man; and they have young prospects at 2B (Goins) and CF (Pompey) – if one of them breaks out, so much the better. Smoak has never impressed, so 1B could still be an issue, but there’s every reason to believe Toronto has a top-notch attack.
But then…you look at the pitching. Their ‘ace’ is a 39-year-old knuckleballer with average numbers the past two seasons. Their #2 is a finesse lefty who gives up a ton of hits (Buehrle). #3 is a young hard throwing righty who sported a 4.48 ERA last year – and the 4/5 slots are expected to be manned by a pair of unproven 22-year-olds. The injury to Stroman REALLY hurts – he had proven himself in 2014, and that injury pushes one of the youngsters from the bullpen to the rotation, potentially weakening both areas.
The bullpen is full of holes as well; Brett Cecil should be the closer, but he’s experiencing shoulder soreness – a terrible sign this early. The rest of the ‘pen is average at best – not a Detroit-level disaster, but certainly not a group to be counted on.
Bottom line: This team should contend – so much talent – but expecting those rookie pitchers to make 60 good starts is unlikely, and the bullpen isn’t good enough to make up the difference. If they make a move for someone like Cueto or Hamels they could be the class of the league, but this roster falls just a bit short in my mind. Call it 83-86 wins for the Jays.
Reasons they could be worse: The lineup is older (Martin, Encarnacion, Bautista, and Reyes are all over 30) and the depth is nonexistent – they need to stay healthy. If the young pitchers get hurt or just don’t pan out, this could get ugly.
Reasons they could be better: This is a team built to win now – I fully expect a decisive trade this summer to help the pitching. If one of the young pitchers hits the ground running and the team stays healthy, this team has 95-win potential.
Chances to contend: 80% chance to contend; 45% chance to win the division. This team is VERY close in my opinion.
11.) New York Mets (79-83, 2nd in NL East, T-15th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: LF Eric Young Jr
Key Additions: LF Michael Cuddyer
Outlook: What to make of the Mets? They have six straight losing seasons, no star hitters (I don’t count Duda just yet), and they basically brought the 2014 squad back intact. On the other hand, the rotation could be excellent, aside from Washington the division is rancid, and there are no major holes (assuming ace Matt Harvey is 100% as he returns from Tommy John surgery).
Let’s start with the offense – Duda was a revelation a year ago, Granderson still provides some walks and power, and catcher Travis Arnaud is already above-average and should improve. Unfortunately, David Wright is a shadow of his former all-star self, there’s little power or team speed, and they do not get on base enough. Cuddyer has been productive when healthy, but at age 36 how much does he have left? This was a below-average offense in 2014 and I don’t see them getting much better this season.
The rotation is another story – they were on the cusp of being an elite rotation until Zach Wheeler’s season-ending injury this spring. Even with him gone they are stacked with Harvey, deGrom, Niese, and Dillon Gee. Bartolo Colon is 42 and could fall apart any minute, but for now he projects as a darn good fifth starter. The bullpen is capable if not elite. The Mets were sixth in team ERA last season and even with the shorter fences this season, I think Harvey makes them a top-5 staff.
That pitching, plus the division, has me bullish on the Mets’ chances. In the Central this is probably a .500 team or worse, but all those games against the Phillies and Braves will inflate the win totals of the Mets and Nationals. I’m saying 83-86 wins and wildcard contention for the Mets.
Reasons they could be worse: Harvey is reinjured/ineffective; Duda’s ’14 season was a fluke; they have no depth, so injuries could really cripple this team quickly.
Reasons they could be better: Wright finds his old form, the pitching is as good as I expect and the hitting is above average. This team could potentially get close to 90 wins if things break right.
Chances to contend: 10% for the division – this division simply should not be that close (again) when the season ends, Washington is that good. However, I think there’s a 70% chance of the Mets hanging around in the wildcard race.
10.) Kansas City (89-73, 2nd in AL Central, 7th in MLB in 2014)
Key Losses: SP James Shields, DH Billy Butler, RF Nori Aoki
Key Additions: SP Edinson Volquez, DH Kendrys Morales, RF Alex Rios
Outlook: Last year’s Cinderella story tries to repeat the magic – typically the sequels do not end well, and make no mistake – this is a team with a razor-thin margin for error – but I do believe the Royals have a good chance at returning to the postseason.
Offensively, there’s every reason to believe they will improve. Forget the 15 games last October, this is not and will not become some powerhouse offense…but the likes of Cain, Hosmer, Perez, and Moustakas are still very young and each can be expected to improve on last season (In the cases of Moustakas and Hosmer, improvement is essential – they may well end up being replaced if they cannot hit better). Morales and Rios are risky, but Butler was almost useless last year and Rios is capable of surpassing Aoki’s numbers – and both add some much-needed pop.
Make no mistake; this was a poor offense a year ago, finishing last BY A MILE in home runs, last in walks, 11th in slugging% and ninth in runs. They were completely dependent on batting average and speed – and batting average is highly variable year to year. I expect some improvement for 2015.
The pitching is where the season will be won or lost – the loss of Shields hurts, not because he was an ‘ace’ (he wasn’t, not even close), but because 227 above-average innings are very hard to replace. Volquez might provide 80% of his production, and young Yordano Ventura should improve, but overall this is an average rotation at best. The strength is the bullpen – particularly the 3-headed monster of Holland, Davis, & Herrera. What they accomplished in 2014 was astounding – and unrepeatable. The trio gave up THREE home runs in over 200 combined innings! They will regress; it is simply a matter of how much. If they can provide another 200+ quality innings, this team will win 80+ again and be a real factor in the postseason race. This is as much a vote of no-confidence in Detroit (and the division) as a vote of confidence for the Royals, but I’m calling for 84-87 wins and the final wildcard slot for KC.
Reasons they could be worse: NO depth here at all – an injury to Davis, Holland, or Alex Gordon would cripple them. I’m assuming the young hitters make some progress – if they repeat their 2014 performance, this team will struggle to reach .500.
Reasons they could be better: Aside from a major leap from one of their young players OR a big trade, I don’t see a high ceiling for this team – there’s simply not enough offense to win 95 games.
Chances to contend: They are too limited to win 90 games and too talented to lose 90 – this team has an excellent chance of staying in the fight until the end. 85% chance of contention for both the division and the wildcard.
9.) San Diego Padres (77-85, 3rd in NL West, T-18th in MLB)
Key Losses: LF Seth Smith, C/UT Yasmani Grandal, SP Eric Stults, SS Everth Cabrera, C Rene Rivera
Key Additions: LF Justin Upton, CF, Wil Myers, RF Matt Kemp, 3B Will Middlebrooks, , C Derek Norris, SP James Shields, SP Brendan Morrow, RP Joaquin Benoit
Outlook: Talk about a quick overhaul…the Padres will start new players at six of eight positions this year, along with a new workhorse starter and a new closer. They saw it wasn’t working on offense and blew it up – but did they get better?
From a run-scoring perspective there’s no question – this is a far superior team. Upton has MVP skills, Kemp regained his from last year, and Myers is not far removed from being the most coveted prospect in the game. The questions abound in the infield, however – Middlebrooks was terrible in 2014, as was Gyorko – both need a big rebound. Norris broke out, but was it a career year or a new level? And will 1B Yonder Alonso ever live up to even half his potential? Their pitcher-friendly park makes judging Padre hitters as difficult as judging Rockie pitchers, but the stats are plain – the Padres finished dead last in MLB in every major offensive category a season ago. They have nowhere to go but up, and I expect them to be much-improved at bat…the raw numbers might not indicate it, but when allowing for the park I expect them to be league-average.
The pitching was pretty good in ’14 and has a chance to be better with Shields in the fold. As mentioned above, he’s no ace (although pitching in Petco Park may make his stats look that way), but he will provide 200+ solid innings and help the Padre bullpen immensely. Ian Kennedy is in the same mold, and Tyson Ross and Andrew Cashner are developing into excellent young starters. The bullpen is a bit more questionable – despite his good 2014 I’m not a Joaquin Benoit fan – but they should do an adequate job.
San Diego put all their chips in the middle for a 2015 run, and while I don’t think they can catch the Dodgers, they should be much improved this season. There are some holes and some question marks, but new GM AJ Preller has shown he’s not afraid to make big deals. I think San Diego makes the playoffs as the final wild-card…call it 86-88 wins for the Padres.
Reasons they could be worse: The defense looks like it could be iffy in the outfield, and that could adversely affect the pitchers. There are a lot of ‘ifs’ on offense, and if some of those guys don’t live up to expectations, they could end up close to 2014 levels. Finally, anytime you change THIS much on a team, you cannot be sure how it will shake out.
Reasons they could be better: Upton has an MVP salary drive season, Kemp plays 150 games, Gyorko and Middlebrooks find their form and the Padres score 140 more runs than they did in 2014. If they do that, 90-94 wins is possible.
Chances to contend: The Dodgers should win the division, I give San Diego no better than a 30% chance at that – but they appear to me to be well-equipped for wildcard contention. Call it 85% to contend, 60% to win a wildcard.
Next week, the Elite Eight – the teams that I think are good bets to win it all in 2015.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.