If you’re reading this, you almost certainly know all the gory details of the Pens’ latest postseason failure/meltdown – this time letting a 3-1 series lead slip away without once owning a lead in the final three games. There was immediately blood in the water and ownership immediately reacted by firing GM Ray Shero – but with Coach Dan Bylsma in ‘limbo’ and fans calling for more change, it’s clear the offseason moves have only begun in Pittsburgh. Let’s take a deeper look at what’s happened here and why. I’ll also add my thoughts on what SHOULD happen – and what I think WILL happen.
BACKGROUND
Since winning the Cup in 2009, the Penguins have lost to lower-seeded teams every single year in the playoffs. I give a pass for 2011, because Crosby AND Malkin were out and that team overachieved during the season as much as any in team history…but the other four have no such excuses:
-2010, Pittsburgh catches a huge break when Montreal upsets the top-seeded Caps, and they win the first game handily…then proceed to be wildly inconsistent before losing game 7 handily on home ice. Montreal went on to lose in the next round in five games.
-2012, Pens face the Flyers in the opening round – a Flyers squad with SERIOUS deficiencies on defense and in goal – and COMPLETELY melted down in every way possible, allowing a ridiculous 20 goals in the first three games while going down 3-0. They eventually allowed 30 goals and lost in six games. The Flyers lost the next round in five games.
-2013, Pens had goalie issues and narrowly avoided an embarrassing loss to the Islanders in the first round only after switching goalies. They ended up facing the Bruins in the conference finals and again imploded early, losing 3-0 and 6-1 on home ice. They played better in Boston but ended up getting swept. The Bruins lost the Cup Final in six games.
They lost to CLEARLY flawed, inferior teams in 2010 and 2012…and while losing to the powerful Bruins isn’t so bad by itself, getting pummeled on home ice by a combined 9-1 score was a very poor showing. Every one of the teams that defeated them lost in the next round (we’ll see how the Rangers fare).
Now, you say, what about that ‘undermanned’ 2011 team? Well, They ALSO blew a 3-1 series lead in remarkably similar fashion to this year’s team – terrible Game 5 effort, lost a close Game 6 on the road, lost Game 7 by a 1-0 score despite carrying play most of the evening (I was there). Again, I think 2011 was Bylsma’s best work and they were extremely outmanned in that series, but it still was a blown opportunity for sure.
PERSONNEL
Here are the players who have been with the team since winning the Cup in 2009: Crosby, Malkin, Kunitz, Dupuis (injured this year, missed playoffs), Adams, Letang, Fleury. Adams is a 4th-line grinder, he’s 36 and will almost certainly be let go this summer, so let’s move on. Kunitz aside (he was 29), the rest of these guys were all 21-25 in 2009 – which is actually considered the prime age for hockey (as opposed to late-20’s for baseball). They are 26-30 now, at or near the end of their ‘primes’ (Kunitz is 34 and certainly in decline phase).
Ex-GM Ray Shero has been hailed in Pittsburgh for years because of his savvy trades – he even won NHL Executive of the Year last season – but while he’s had some great trades, his drafts have borne little fruit, especially at forward. Pittsburgh hasn’t developed an ‘impact’ forward since Jordan Staal in 2009, and there’s not much in the pipeline on that front.
The team has also shown more and more reluctance to give young talent a chance to sink or swim (with the notable exception of Olli Maatta this season). The team came into last offseason LOADED with young defensemen, yet Shero chose to sign 34-year-old Rob Scuderi to a 4-year contract…and this after letting Ben Lovejoy, in my opinion a younger, bigger version of Scuderi, go to Anaheim via trade rather than find him regular playing time. Lovejoy is now a defensive mainstay for the Ducks. This season the team could find only limited playing time for the likes of Robert Bortuzzo and Simon Despres, and that stubbornness proved costly by the postseason when it was apparent to most observers that Scuderi was either injured or had just plain lost a step (or three).
Finally, Shero’s decision-making with contracts has to be considered questionable. Crosby and Malkin were no-brainers…but he signed Letang to a HUGE contract extension before this season, which paid him far more on potential than on results. In 2010 he gave huge $25 million contracts to Paul Martin and Zbynek Michalek, and both were so poor that he looked to trade them after only one season! Michalek was quickly taken back by his old team, and while Martin has become a premier defender when healthy, he’s seldom been healthy for long stretches. Shero also signed James Neal to a long-term deal that looks worse with each passing season.
However, for me the worst mistake was a contract that never happened – before trading Jordan Staal, Shero offered him a 10-year, $60 million contract that thankfully Staal rejected. Shero then made a VERY good trade under the circumstances…but if Staal had signed that deal, the Pens would have been regretting it for years. Teams consistently get in trouble when they play ‘good’ players ‘great’ money…and Staal, while a useful piece, is NOT a great player.
Overall, Shero showed the ability to swing good trades, but player development and contracts were not nearly as positive during his tenure – he developed a disturbing tendency to overpay free agents during the last few seasons. The question now is what exactly is ownership looking for that Shero wasn’t providing?
During an interview with Dejan Kovacevic after the firing, it was made clear that co-owners Lemieux and Burkle were upset at the lack of player development/opportunities for young players to succeed. They also mentioned that they fell into the trap of spending to the salary cap just ‘because they could’. Sounds to me like they want to work harder at developing their own players, and reduce the team’s need to pursue major trades and free agents. I 100% agree with this direction.
COACHING
The most surprising thing about the firing of Shero is that Dan Bylsma, widely reported to be in even more trouble than Shero, was retained – at least for now. There are many, many theories on this…Kovacevic remains adamant that Bylsma is still a goner, while other Pittsburgh columnists aren’t so sure. For my part, if he’s definitely a ‘goner’ then I have NO clue what ownership was thinking here – why make the man twist in the wind like this? If, however, ownership likes Bylsma and wants the new GM to seriously consider retaining him, I’m all for it.
Look, it’s EASY to blame the coach when things go south – but by and large the most successful franchises in all major sports stress stability over reactionary change. Here’s the other factor – who out there is going to be a better coach than Bylsma? Does the team REALLy need a new system and a new ‘message’? Or was the real problem lack of talent at the back end of the roster?
Time will tell and there’s a significant chance that the new GM will demand a new coaching staff…but be careful what you wish for. We get spoiled easily as fans, 90% of the NHL would be THRILLED to have a coach – and a team – as successful as Bylsma.
OWNERSHIP/BUILDING
Here’s another interesting stat for you: Pittsburgh is now 13-16 all-time in home playoff games since the Consol Energy Center was built. The crowds just aren’t as good anymore, and the primary reason for that is cost. I had center-ice tickets at Mellon Arena that cost around $50 per seat in 2009. Five years later, I’m behind the goal (albeit closer to the ice) and the seats cost almost $80 – and that price DOUBLES in the playoffs! This despite the salary cap DECLINING this past season – meaning almost all of that increase went directly into ownership’s pocket. I have no problem with ownership making money – this isn’t a charity – but the sheer audacity to RAISE prices following a half-season lockout is astounding to me.
The secondary market was FLOODED with tickets for Game 7 vs. the Rangers…now sure, SOME of that was fan apathy after seeing a 3-1 series lead disappear, but more of it was shelling out $700-$800 to take a family of four to the game (allowing for parking, concessions, etc).
The building itself is a problem also, and it’s a problem a lot of teams are facing with the newer arenas. The Consol Center has better sightlines, to be sure, but it’s not nearly as intimidating to opponents as the old ‘Igloo’. Put it all together, and there’s NO home-ice advantage now for the Penguins…fact is, they’ve been better on the road than at home in the playoffs since moving to the new building.
I sense some corporate ‘cheapness’ as well – there are far less giveaways during the season; they used to always give away a t-shirt for every playoff game, now that’s a rare thing. The team has sold out 334 consecutive games, but it’s becoming harder and harder to maintain that streak and I predict it will end early next season. Another prolonged streak is only possible if they stabilize (or even reduce!) ticket prices, and re-energize their marketing. They’ve taken the number 18,600 (a sellout crowd) for granted for eight years – the team needs to remember that all things end, and fans have PLENTY of outlets for their entertainment dollars.
SOLUTIONS
Despite Shero’s trade successes and the general success of the team (at least during the regular season), I can’t find much fault with his ouster. The fact is, he’s traded WAY too many draft picks away and failed to prioritize home-grown forward talent – in every sport, young, cheap talent is necessary to keep balance on the roster. Teams get in trouble when they start spending big bucks for average talent – when you’re spending over a million dollars for Tanner Glass and over THREE million for Rob Scuderi, you’ve ended up in a bad place.
The emphasis on homegrown talent is a good place to start. An overhaul of marketing, and an analysis of pricing is important as well.
As for the personnel on the team…what gets lost when you become a spoiled fan base (and Pens fans have reached that point – we’ve had a Lemieux, Jagr, Crosby, and/or Malkin to watch EVERY SEASON since 1984!!) is the notion that winning the Cup is HARD, and involves a fair amount of luck.
Let me take you back to 2009 – the Pens were down two games to none against Washington, and Game 3, in Pittsburgh, went to OT. Had the Pens dropped that game, they almost certainly would have lost the series, and the whole narrative would have changed. One goal – in one overtime – changed the fortunes of two franchises in my opinion. The Caps never really recovered, and the Pens basked in the Cup afterglow for five seasons.
There’s an AWFUL lot of talent on this team, enough that I would not necessarily make huge changes…with a couple of key exceptions below. A couple of key moves here and there could make all the difference. Here’s what I’d do:
Free agents:
Jokinen, Stempniak, Glass, Goc, Pyatt, Vitale, Gibbons, Orpik, Niskanen, Engelland, and Vokoun are all free agents/
I’d only make an effort to re-sign Gibbons, Jokinen, and Niskanen. The rest (Orpik aside) are dime-a-dozen talents, and some are not even that good (Taylor Pyatt, I’m looking at you). THESE are the kind of players a good team doesn’t pursue as free agents often – they develop checking forwards and bottom-pair defensemen themselves and save a TON of cash.
Orpik is still a good player, but he’s aging (33) and he will command more than the Pens should spend on a defense-only player. Also, the one position of depth is defense – it’s time to let more of the young guys get a REAL shot, over a whole season. Niskanen is young and broke out this season – he needs to come back if possible. Gibbons showed his worth in the postseason – he’ll come cheap and he’s a great fit on this team. Jokinen will almost certainly want to come back if given a reasonable offer – he resurrected his career playing on Malkin’s wing – so expect a deal if both sides are reasonable.
Trades:
-I’d investigate moving Paul Martin. He’s at the top of his game, but he’s over 30 as well, he has a long history of injuries, and he’s a free agent after next season. Better to get a return now, which will free up cash to sign Niskanen and open slots on the blue line for the young players. If Olli Maatta’s shoulder injury is serious, that changes my opinion – that would leave a HUGE void on defense.
-I’d move James Neal ASAP. He’s the hockey equivalent of a 3-point specialist – if you set him up perfectly he will score, but he cannot create his own shot and he’s not good defensively. Worse, he’s undisciplined and has shown no ability/willingness to curtail his silly postseason penalties. As a recent 40-goal scorer, there WILL be a market for him.
-I would NOT trade Fleury, but I also would not sign him to an extension. He’s a free agent after next season, and there’s a top goalie prospect coming in a couple years named Tristan Jarry. Let Fleury play out his walk year – there’s good reason for both sides to let this play out.
-Finally, the biggest move, the move I’d do before I made ANY of the trades above: INVESTIGATE the trade market for Crosby. I know, I know, this will never happen – and many of you are yelling at me for even THINKING it – but here’s why I think it should: His trade value is still sky-high, but his contract lasts for 11 more seasons, and there are signs of decline creeping into his game.
His lack of playoff production this season speaks for itself – but the fact is, the last half of the season Crosby’s production dropped dramatically. After 43 games Crosby had 23 goals, 39 assists and 62 total points. The last 39 games of the season he collected 13 goals and 29 assists. Yes, many players would be happy with 13 goals and 42 points in 40 games – but those players are NOT forwards making $8.7 million per year.
Furthermore, he has an extensive injury history (this is only the third time in nine seasons he’s played 80+ games, and he’s missed more than 1/3 of his team’s games in three seasons), and the concussion history will remain a factor for the rest of his career. Add to that the fact that he’s not the biggest, nor the fastest – his ability to excel is dependent upon grinding, winning battles in the corners and in front of the net. When he’s not doing that – and he wasn’t in the playoffs – he’s rather easily neutralized. As he ages, this style will be harder and harder for him to dominate with – unlike a Mario, Jagr, or Malkin, who can use their large, rugged frames to create space for themselves.
Now, I am aware that Sid has a no-trade clause – but I’d still see what the offers were like. Word will get back to Sid, and one of two things will happen: he will name teams he’d accept a trade to, which would show he really IS ready to move on…or, a competitor like Sid will use that as motivation to improve next season. The third option, he sulks and ‘goes through the motions’ in 2014-15, seems highly unlikely given his fiercely competitive nature.
Branch Rickey said it best: always better to trade a player a year too soon rather than a year too late. Sid’s contract is going to be a MAJOR headache in five years, maybe even sooner, for someone…I’d rather that it was another team’s issue to deal with.
Now, since I’m 100% sure ownership won’t even THINK of moving Sid, it’s imperative that the new GM keep some cap flexibility in the coming years to account for the likely decline in Crosby’s (and Malkin’s) game. Time will tell if the new regime is that forward-thinking.
Change is coming in Pittsburgh, and this is the most crucial offseason for the Pens since at least 2005. How they handle this adversity will determine if this team remains a contender for another 3-5 seasons, or they become stuck in a cycle of mediocrity.
Dave Glass can be reached at dsglass74@gmail.com.