-Gunning for #1 Draft Pick: Jacksonville, Kansas City, Tennessee, Cleveland. DARK HORSE: Oakland. These teams are all done like dinner, and hope is all but lost in every one of those cities – but especially in Jacksonville, KC, and Tennessee. Cleveland has new ownership, some young talent, and presumably new management on the way; and Oakland still can score some points. The other three teams are excruciating to watch and offer no hope of more than four-or-five wins.
-Extreme Long shots for contention: Washington, Buffalo, Cincinnati, St. Louis, Arizona, Carolina, Philadelphia, NY Jets. Many may think I’m writing off the Bengals too soon, but their offense has become AJ Green and little else, they have five losses already, and they finish with SD, Dallas, Philly, Pittsburgh, and Baltimore. There’s no way I see three wins for them out of that group. Washington is too beat-up on defense, Carolina is better than their 2-6 record but dug too deep of a hole, the Rams are a year away, the Jets have too many injuries and no NFL-caliber QBs, the Eagles are in the midst of a coach-killing collapse, and Arizona has a great defense and no QB. Of this group I’d give Philly the ‘punchers chance’ based on their talent, but they have simply laid too many eggs to take them seriously anymore.
-Unlikely, but possible playoff teams: Dallas, Minnesota, New Orleans. Dallas has had some bad luck and some bad games, but they played Atlanta and Baltimore extremely tough on the road and their schedule is MUCH easier from here on in. Pittsburgh is the only team left on their schedule with a winning record. On the other hand, they have no margin for error in the superior NFC, so they probably need to go 7-1 to make it in. Minnesota is 5-4 but they are fading fast, and they have a VERY tough schedule ahead (five games against the Packers, Bears, and Texans). New Orleans is in the same boat as Dallas, except that their schedule is much tougher. Their offense is better and they will be a MAJOR spoiler, but I cannot see them finishing 10-6. Dallas has the best chance here to get on a SERIOUS roll, and if Philly folds their tent (they play Dallas twice this month), Dallas’ path to 10 wins looks a lot easier.
-Wildcard Contenders: Tampa Bay, Seattle, Miami, Indy. These are teams that I think cannot win their division but still have a good shot at a playoff slot – Seattle has the easiest path here, as they have a winning record, a huge home-field advantage, a late bye to regroup, and an easy schedule. Tampa Bay has made a big turnaround this season, especially on offense, but they have the NFL’s worst pass defense and a difficult schedule. I firmly believe that either Miami or Indy is going to take the final AFC playoff slot – which is a credit to Miami’s no-name defense and to the amazing rookie season of Andrew Luck. This is literally too close to call, both have equally tough schedules, and Luck’s improvement is counterbalanced by five Indy road games in the second half.
-Division Battles: Baltimore/Pittsburgh, Denver/San Diego, Chicago/Green Bay. Baltimore, Denver, and Chicago have to be considered the favorites since they each have the division lead – however, I think the Packers are just hitting their stride and the Bears won’t score two defensive TDs every week – I look for that division to come down to the wire. Denver already has won at San Diego – a season sweep should assure the Broncos a division crown. Both of those teams are flawed, but surprisingly I favor Denver here – Manning is playing at a high level, while Philip Rivers clearly has declined. I’ll talk more about the Steelers in a minute, but they play Baltimore twice in three weeks in November – if either team sweeps those games they will almost certainly win the division, but I predict a split. In fact, I think the Ravens will go 5-3 in the second half, the Steelers will go 6-2, and the division will come down to a tiebreaker – likely won by the Ravens via a better conference record.
-Cruising: Atlanta, New England, Houston, NY Giants, San Francisco. These teams can start making January plans – the Pats and 9ers have slim division leads, but I do not think anyone in either division is ready to challenge them. The Giants suddenly look wobbly, but they have a 3-game lead in their division, and Houston and the Falcons are really on cruise control at this point. I like Atlanta, San Francisco, Houston, and New England to earn byes for the playoffs. The team that has to be the most concerned is New York – yes, they are 6-3 but if not for a fortunate replay in Dallas and a 77-yard Cruz TD against Washington they’d be riding a 3-game losing streak right now. Their schedule is not easy, and while I expect them to prevail, I think Dallas might just give them a run.
Now, about the Steelers…after their loss to the Titans dropped them to 2-3, I thought their season was cooked – they weren’t stopping anyone on defense, the running game was hit-and-miss, and the passing game wasn’t producing enough TDs. Suddenly the defense has completely shut down RG3, Eli Manning, and AJ Green, the running game has 140+ yards each of the last three years, and the Steelers are right back in the thick of the division race. Maybe defensive coordinator Dick LeBeau wasn’t the problem after all??
The most impressive improvement has been the offensive line – long the biggest weakness on the team, it has become a real strength, especially run blocking. For years Steeler running backs would struggle to find ANY holes – now suddenly every Steeler back is finding running room and ripping off 5-10 yard runs. This has allowed Pittsburgh to control the clock, given more opportunities to Big Ben in the passing game, and made Pittsburgh a much more dangerous offense to defend.
The best news is that the Steelers have their destiny entirely in their own hands – the only winning team left on their schedule is Baltimore, and the Ravens’ defense is a shadow if its former greatness. If Pittsburg can somehow win both Baltimore games, the division, and perhaps even a bye, is well within reach. Amazing how three weeks can change everything – right now, the Steelers are the most dangerous team in the AFC.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.