Before we talk about who made moves, it’s perhaps even more instructive to note that out of 13 ‘contending’ teams, only two of them made no deadline moves at all – the Angels and the Yankees. In the Yankees’ case, while it seems surprising at first glance, I actually understand their reluctance – they have the best run differential in baseball, their pitching has held up surprisingly well, they didn’t want to part with their top prospects, and even if Boston wins the division the Yanks are a virtual shoo-in for the wild-card at this point (the Angels are the closest team and they are eight games behind in the loss column). The Angels, on the other hand, are a flawed team that’s only two games behind the Rangers – and with the Rangers making moves, you’d think that the Angels would have tried to keep pace. Now, I’ll grant that most deadline deals make a lot less impact than most people think – and the Angels have a lot of terrible contracts, maybe they just have no money to spend – but still, one would have expected at least a minor deal from them.
Enough about the inactive teams; let’s look at the teams that DID move, starting in the AL:
BOSTON – Acquired IF Mike Aviles from KC for two minor-leaguers; acquired LHP Erik Bedard and a minor-league reliever from Seattle for four prospects (this was a 3-way deal with the Dodgers).
Analysis: Aviles is strictly insurance – a jack-of-all-trades guy who hasn’t hit at all this year; the Sox gave up almost nothing to get him. The Bedard trade is the big one, because it indicates that lefty Clay Bucholtz won’t be ready to help Boston anytime soon – GM Theo Epstein said as much in his post-trade comments.
Bedard is extremely injury-prone, but when healthy he can help the Sox – look for them to keep his innings under strict control, trying to save him for October. The Sox’ regular season is now simply an exercise in setting up for the playoffs without injuring anyone – they and the Yanks are almost sure bets to play in October. The Sox parted with a minor-league catching prospect who profiles similar to Mike McKenry – a solid backup, nothing more – and two bullpen arms. Seattle received CF prospect Trayvon Robinson from the Dodgers, along with another minor-league hitter. I am not clear on why the Dodgers got involved in this – to me, they gave up the best prospect in Robinson and got almost no value in return. Seattle, in my opinion, did well to get this much for the fragile Bedard.
IMPACT: Low in the regular season; potentially moderate to large in the postseason if Bedard is healthy.
DETROIT – Acquired starter Doug Fister and RP David Pauley for four minor-leaguers.
Analysis: Fister is 3-12 but is a victim of the Mariners’ pathetic offense – he’s an above-average starter who will be a major upgrade in the middle of the Tiger rotation. Detroit gave two average prospects along with 3B Francisco Martinez, who was one of their best prospects but was blocked by another 3B prospect in Detroit, Nick Castellanos. Seattle needed to improve their offense and by trading Fister and Bedard, they’ve acquired quite a few potential answers on offense.
IMPACT: Moderate – Detroit’s rotation has been pretty terrible aside from ace Justin Verlander – if Fister comes close to matching his Seattle ERA/WHIP/etc, the wins will follow. Detroit is now the clear favorite in the AL Central.
CLEVELAND – Acquired SP Ubaldo Jimenez from Colorado for four players, including top pitching prospect Alex White and a PTBNL (player-to-be-named-later) who is rumored to be another top prospect, LHP Drew Pomeranz; acquired OF Kosuke Fukudome for two minor-leaguers.
Analysis: Let’s start with the easy one – Fukudome gets on base but has never shown the power expected when he arrived from Japan; he has value in a mediocre Indians outfield, but he’s a below-average player overall. The Jimenez trade, on the other hand, might have the biggest risk/reward for both teams of any trade made this year. We wrote about Jimenez a few weeks ago under ‘most disappointing’, and noted that his control has been the biggest problem. Scouts say his velocity is fine after a dip earlier in the season, and lest we forget this is a pitcher who blew away the NL for most of 2010. He’s also signed to a very team-friendly deal through 2013, so if he regains his form the Indians have made a GREAT deal. However, they took on a risk, and compounded that by sending at least one and likely two elite pitching prospects away for him – both of which have star potential, according to some scouts. This deal strikes me as a bit of desperation for Cleveland, who got off to such a great start and now see the division slipping away.
For Colorado, one assumes they know something about Jimenez that made them so willing to part with that talent – and clearly, they got a healthy return – but if Jimenez finds his form, there will be a lot of pressure on their GM to show some results for sending him away. Colorado has been extremely disappointing this season, and this deal probably falls under the category of ‘too good to pass up’ – but the team that receives the most talented player usually wins the trade, and just who that player is won’t be known for awhile. We’ll likely be reviewing this trade in the years to come to determine who ‘won’.
IMPACT: Slight to Moderate for 2011 – Fukudome isn’t enough to help the offense, and I think Cleveland will fall further back as September rolls around – but potentially large for 2012-13 if Jimenez finds his form.
TEXAS – Acquired reliever Koji Uehara from Baltimore for RHP Tommy Hunter and 1B Chris Davis; acquired RP Mike Bell from San Diego for two AA pitching prospects.
ANALYSIS: Normally I frown upon trading useful pieces for bullpen help, because bullpen performance tends to vary from year to year – but Texas is an exception, because they were a legit title contender with major bullpen issues – and they decisively addressed that problem over the weekend. Combined, Uehara and Adams have thrown 95 innings, allowed only 51 hits, 17 walks, and struck out 111 batters! Suddenly they have one of the best late-inning ‘pens in the league, a handy thing in the October pressure-cooker. They paid dearly for both players – Davis might still become a big-time slugger, and the pitchers they gave San Diego are good prospects – but both relievers are signed through 2012, which adds to their value. Texas is all-in, and they acted accordingly – if they stay healthy, they will once again challenge the Yanks and Sox for a World Series berth.
IMPACT – Moderate during the season – Texas was already the favorite – but potentially large in the playoffs.
San Francisco – Acquired OF Carlos Beltran from the Mets for pitching prospect Zach Wheeler.
ANALYSIS: This is another team that is all-in, and this is also kind of a ‘throwback deal’ – the Giants gave up their top pitching prospect for a 2-month rental in hopes of repeating as World Series champs. It’s a HUGE gamble, even more so because Beltran’s contract specifies he cannot be offered arbitration (meaning the Giants cannot get draft picks for him if he signs elsewhere). The Mets clearly made out well with this deal – Beltran was sure to be dealt, and I thought there was no chance they’d get a top prospect for him – but this can be a win-win if the Giants make the postseason and Beltran is a major contributor. The other factor is the Giants’ loaded rotation – more than almost any other team, SF could afford to part with a top young starter. Overall, though, I still think they overpaid.
IMPACT – Moderate – the Giants’ offense is terrible and Beltran is an upgrade, but one bat can go only so far.
Arizona – Acquired Ryan Langerhans from Seattle for cash; acquired SP Jason Marquis from Washington for IF Zach Walters; acquired RP Brad Zeigler from Oakland for 1B Brandon Allen and a minor-league pitcher.
ANALYSIS: I’m unimpressed. Arizona is surprisingly close to the Giants (one game back as of Tuesday), and it’s all on the strength of their offense – they are third in the NL in runs scored, but near the bottom in pitching. My issue is that they overpaid for mediocrity, ESPECIALLY with Ziegler. Marquis is an innings-eater, and will be a moderate upgrade to the rotation for minimal cost – decent enough move. Ziegler is a sidearming righty who gets CRUSHED by lefties, meaning he has to be used very carefully – and the Dbacks gave up a legit power hitter in Allen for him?? If they were going to make a serious run, why not package Allen with a better minor-leaguer and make a run at Uehara, or some of the other arms on the market? I admit that Arizona was handcuffed by their division – the two best trading partners for their situation were probably San Diego and Colorado, and neither would be too keen on a midseason deal with them…still, this team has a legitimate chance to win the division, and a more decisive move might have even made them the favorites. Instead, the Giants made the boldest move, and if Arizona falls short, if I were a Dbacks fan I’d blame the front office for not being more aggressive.
IMPACT – Low.
Philadelphia – Acquired RF Hunter Pence from Houston for RHP Jarred Cosart, 1B Jonathon Singleton, RHP Josh Reid, and a PTBNL.
ANALYSIS: Speaking of all-in moves, this was the blockbuster of the weekend….but surprisingly, I think this move was more about 2012 than 2011. Pence is the right-handed OF the Phils were looking for, but with a huge lead in the division (seven games now) and Halladay, Hamels, and Lee in the rotation, Philly didn’t NEED to do anything for this year. However, with Raul Ibanez aging and expected to leave after the season, Pence allows them to enter 2012 with basically an intact lineup – top prospect Domonic Brown becomes the fourth OF for the rest of 2011, and he’ll re-enter the lineup next season. I am torn about this deal – on one hand, Pence isn’t as good as you think he is – he basically hits slightly better than the average RF, and he provides little value on the bases or in the field. He’s a good player, don’t get me wrong, but he’ll never be a star, and based on prospect grades the Phils paid a star’s ransom for him. On the other hand, the top two prospects given up by Philly were drafted in the 38th round and the eighth round (Read and the PTBNL are likely to be filler) – if your farm system can be useful enough to turn eighth and 38th-round picks into a player like Hunter Pence, you’re really doing something right. Philly is CLEARLY in 100% win-now mode – there’s no reason for them to hoard tons of decent prospects, and this deal allowed them to keep Brown – their best prospect. I think they slightly overpaid, but sometimes you have to do that to fill a perceived need – and they have Pence’s rights through 2013. This seems like a classic win-win deal for both teams.
IMPACT – Low for 2011 – the Phils were going to be NL favorites with or without Pence.
Atlanta – Acquired CF Michael Bourn from Houston for OF Jordan Schafer and three minor leaguers
ANALYSIS: Atlanta did much better than Philly – their need for a CF was glaring, and Bourn is arguably a more valuable player than Pence (more on that in a minute), and they gave up far less to get him. Schafer is the key to the deal – if he finally starts hitting, this deal looks better for Houston, but if he flops, all they have are some risky minor-league arms to show for Bourn. In mo opinion Houston could have extracted more had they waited for the offseason. Like Philly, Atlanta turned a bunch of later-round draft picks into a valuable player, and as mentioned their need was far greater than Philly’s. Bourn has no power, but he gets on base quite well, and his baserunning and defense are both elite – which, after you adjust for position, is why he’s on-par with Pence in terms of value. All in all, he’s a perfect fit in Atlanta and should help Braves fans forget the disaster that the McLouth trade was (CLEARLY Pittsburgh won that deal!).
IMPACT – Moderate – again, one bat can only do so much, but Bourn’s baserunning and defense are HUGE upgrades.
Milwaukee- Acquired RP Francisco Rodriguez from the Mets for two PTBNL.
ANALYSIS: Although they have flaws, I think the Brewers correctly concluded that they had the makings of a division winner in place, and didn’t go for a huge overhaul – of course, having gutted their farm system for Zack Grienke in the offseason, they didn’t have the pieces to make a big trade anyway. ‘K-Rod’ is a useful piece for their bullpen – a pen that, aside from close John Axford, had no strikeout arms to speak of. The lineup is too top-heavy, but the holes at SS and 3B weren’t likely to be fixed in July. Hard to evaluate the deal without knowing who the PTBNLs are, but assuming they didn’t part with any top prospects this seems like a decent move for both teams (K-Rod is a free agent after this season).
IMPACT – Low – one bullpen arm won’t change things much. The Brewers will win or lose on their rotation and the power of Fielder and Braun.
St. Louis – Acquired SP Edwin Jackson, RPs Mark Rzepcynski and Octavio Dotel, and OF Corey Patterson for CF Colby Rasmus, RPs Trever Miller, PJ Walters, and Brian Tallet; acquired SS Rafael Furcal for OF Alex Castellanos.
ANALYSIS: The Cards took some gambles here – some small (hoping Furcal stays healthy; if he doesn’t, they gave up almost nothing for him), and some large (hoping Rasmus doesn’t finally emerge in Canada). Furcal is straightforward – the Cards wanted a SS upgrade, Furcal was the best available, and he didn’t cost much. The other trade is far more complex – the basic storyline is that Rasmus wore out his welcome in St. Louis, and Toronto wanted him so bad they swung a preliminary deal with the White Sox for Jackson just so they could trade him to the Cards. St. Louis gets the rotation upgrade they need, but the final grades for this trade will depend almost entirely on Rasmus’ future. If he develops, the Cards made a TERRIBLE deal, and one that will be looked upon as manager Tony LaRussa’s ego getting in the way of a good player (word is that LaRussa was not a Rasmus fan) – if Rasmus never develops, the Cards will be lauded for dumping him while he still had value. In the short term, Rasmus wasn’t playing much anyway, and Jackson will help the Cards try to track down the surging Brewers.
IMPACT: Moderate – Jackson and Furcal definitely upgrade the team, as long as Furcal can stay on the field.
Pittsburgh – Acquired 1B Derrick Lee from Baltimore for minor-league 1B Aaron Baker; acquired OF Ryan Ludwick for a PTBNL or cash.
ANALYSIS: Well you knew they weren’t going to make a HUGE move and give away a top prospect – that’s not this front office’s M.O., and given how tenuous their ability to win has been, I 100% agree with that. I also felt that they HAD to make a move, if for no other reason than to show the fans that they were serious about this season. In that regard, mission accomplished – Lee is not the player he was, but he should be a TREMENDOUS upgrade on Lyle Overbay (although, seriously, who wouldn’t be?). Lee had a very auspicious debut Monday, hitting two HRs in a losing effort – if he bats .270 with 8-10 HRs down the stretch, that would be just fine by the Bucs. Aaron Baker doesn’t project as a great MLB prospect, but he has power – and that’s one commodity the Bucs don’t have much of in their system. I’d have rather seen them part with a low-grade arm than a low-grade power hitter, but either way it’s unlikely to be a move they truly regret. Ludwick is having a terrible season (although PETCO Park severely depresses all batter’s numbers), and it’s unclear to me that he represents any sort of upgrade at all – especially once Alex Presley returns next week. Perhaps he gets a week to show a turnaround then he gets dumped – if they hang on to Ludwick at the expense of someone like Pearce, then I’ll sharply criticize the move.
IMPACT – Low to moderate – Ludwick is a non-factor, but if Lee has his typical second-half surge, it represents a HUGE upgrade to the lineup and could mean the difference between a winning season and another sub-.500 record for the Bucs. Silly as this sounds, if Lee helps them snap their 18-season losing streak, then it was a worthy pickup…finishing above .500 certainly isn’t the ONLY goal, but it represents a significant milestone for this franchise on the road back to relevance. Given their recent swoon and Milwaukee’s hot streak, I think the chances of a division title are just about gone…but the Bucs still have plenty to play for.
We will begin our annual NFL preview over the next few weeks, leading up to the start of the NFL season Sept. 8.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.