Chicago rolls into the Finals off of an impressive sweep of the Sharks, but the series was very competitive – two 1-goal wins, and Game 4 was a 1-goal affair until the last 50 seconds…only Game 2 was really secure before the last minute of play. Still, the ‘Hawks totally shut down the Sharks’ top offensive players, and were opportunistic when they had chances. Really, the story for the Hawks has been the play of G Antti Niemi – I watched most of Game 1, and the Sharks carried play for much of the game. Had Niemi not been brilliant, the Sharks would have won Game 1, and the series may have unfolded far differently. As discussed in prior columns, Niemi is clearly talented but lacked consistency much of the year – the poise and calm he exhibited against San Jose may be a sign that he’s truly arrived as an elite goaltender (or, it might just be a hot streak that has no predictive value). Niemi HAS to have a bad game or two if the Flyers are to have a chance of taking the series.
Aside from the goalie, Chicago has few weaknesses. I would characterize their defense corps as the deepest in the league, led by perhaps the top defense pair in Duncan Keith and Brent Seabrook. Up front they have a nearly ideal mix of skill, size, and grit amongst their top-3 lines. They prefer an up-tempo game, but have shown the patience to play a low-scoring, grinding affair as well. Chicago has enjoyed extremely balanced scoring during their postseason run – nine players have at least nine points. They are good on the power play as well, and lead the playoffs with three shorthanded goals.
For Philly, the story also begins in goal – despite being down to their 3rd-string goaltender for awhile in Brian Boucher, the Flyers have excelled between the pipes – their team sv% in the playoffs is a league-leading 92.6%! Yes, the Flyers caught a break by playing three offensively-challenged teams, but those same three teams were noted for their defense and yet the Flyers have averaged over three goals per game. Philly has also enjoyed scoring depth, with seven players recording 10+ points. Philly loves to roll their top-3 lines, play a physical style, and wear down opponents. They also draw a TON of penalties – the Flyers have had 20 more power play opportunities than the Blackhawks in the playoffs (and have also been shorthanded more than Chicago). As I’ve said in prior rounds, Philly wants an officiating crew that will call a lot of penalties, so that they can play 5-on-4 as much as possible.
Defensively, the Flyers have been dynamite, but I see one potential concern: they rarely play their bottom defense pair at all. They have four defensemen averaging over 24 minutes of ice time in the playoffs, and the oldest of the group, Chris Pronger, is averaging over 28! That isn’t so bad on the power play, but at even strength they simply have to keep Pronger fresh for later in the series. Michael Leighton is back in goal and has posted an unbelievable 94.5 sv% thus far – look for that number to regress, much has Halak did in the last round – stopping almost 95% in the NHL is simply not sustainable.
Key players: For the Flyers, I’m taking Leighton and Pronger. Obviously, Leighton has to play exceptionally well for the Flyers to upset the Blackhawks, but it’s equally important for Pronger to handle his massive workload and keep Toews, Kane, and Byfuglien (22 combined goals in the playoffs) in check. For the ‘Hawks, I’m going with Marian Hossa and Brian Campbell – the only two Hawks who have significantly underplayed their talent thus far. With Pronger assigned to stop the top line, Hossa HAS to produce from the second line or Philly has a great chance to win. Campbell has a lot of offensive talent but has yet to score in these playoffs – he should be fully recovered now from his regular season injuries, and needs to contribute offensively.
The pick: I’ve heard Vegas has 3-1 odds on Philly winning the series – if you can get those odds, take them, they are a better team than that – but I cannot pick against the Blackhawks. They remind me so much of last season’s Penguin team, not just in their skill level but in their work ethic and willingness to do whatever it takes to win. Philly will put up a fight, and this could easily go seven games…but I’m taking CHICAGO IN SIX.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.