Let’s start with the Vancouver recap: my first conclusion after watching their series (and I stayed up to watch almost all of it) is that Roberto Luongo simply cannot be considered a top goalie right now. He finished the playoff season with a 3.22 GAA and a .895 sv%, figures worse than that of Marc-Andre Fleury. Now, I understand that the Kings and Blackhawks are very skilled offensive teams, and I also understand that Vancouver’s defense was decimated by injury (and not elite to begin with)…but come on, Luongo is the captain of the team, he continually puts up great regular-season numbers and has yet to deliver even a Stanley Cup Final, much less a title. In the Chicago series, in three home games Luongo allowed 17 goals! Some were not his fault, but several were simply off of bad rebounds. Simply put, they needed him to steal at least a game in this series and he did not. The other major culprit for the Canucks, as in round 1, was the penalty kill. They improved, but still allowed Chicago to click on 25% of their power plays (7 for 28) while the Canucks went 5 for 26. Seems like a small difference, but consider that the ‘Hawks scored four power play goals in the pivotal Game 4 – had Vancouver gotten a couple more kills, they may well have won the game. Vancouver played well 5-on-5 for the most part, but assuming they stick with Luongo (and they will), they desperately need a shutdown, stay-at-home, physical defenseman. There’s still a good core on that team but they need some help if they want a Cup.
In Detroit, the story is much simpler – they are old, they looked tired, their young goalie was human, and San Jose finally figured out how to play well in a postseason series. Yes, every SJ win was a close game, but when you lose in five you have to figure the better team won, and clearly San Jose deserved that series. Detroit has to find some impact talent under the age of 25 – today’s NHL is fast and so physical that I agree strongly with ESPN’s John Buccigross, by and large your team has to be under the age of 30 to win. Of course there are exceptions, but young legs recover quicker than aged legs. Detroit has nothing to be ashamed of – in 3 seasons their record of accomplishment is identical to Pittsburgh’s and going back to 1997 the team has won 4 Cups and earned 100+ regular-season points 10 straight years. I believe that Detroit is likely to hit a bit of a down spell the next couple of years as they rebuild – but much like the Devils, I believe in the Red Wings’ front office and think they won’t be down long.
Finally, we have to discuss what became THE story of the second round, Boston’s historic collapse after holding a 3-0 series lead (and a 3-0 lead in game 7 to boot!). I admit I didn’t get to see a lot of the first three games of this series, because they tended to be on at the same time as the Pens – but I DID see the first game OT, and that was some of the finest hockey I have ever watched. The numbers show that these two teams were extremely evenly-matched, and if it weren’t for the order of the wins and losses no one would have been surprised at a 7-game series going either way. We’ll discuss Philly shortly, but what happened to Boston? In my mind, it still comes down to lack of offense – this team scored goals in bunches at times, particularly early in the series, but when they needed a goal to finish off the Flyers they couldn’t get one. From the start of Game 4 OT to the first period of Game 7, the Bruins scored only one total goal in almost seven periods of play. They struck hard in the first period of Game 7 and took a 3-goal lead, but when a 4th goal would have sealed the Flyers’ fate, they never really got close to scoring again. You also have to wonder if the Bruins let up after Game 4, figuring a series win was inevitable – and then again in Game 7, with a 3-goal lead and a tough goalie in their net, they seemed to relax again. In any case, the team made a terrible short-term error by trading Phil Kessel last summer-and coming up a goal short in this series is probably what they deserved for that. Yes, Boston got two high draft picks from that deal, but you never know how those will turn out – Kessel is a known quantity, and I strongly believe that with him the Bruins would now be in the Eastern Finals. It will be interesting to see how this affects the Boston franchise over the next few years – you have to figure they will make some changes after a collapse like that.
Enough of that, onto the teams still alive…
Philadelphia (#7) vs. Montreal (#8): There isn’t a hockey fan in North America who can convince me they expected these two teams to meet in the Conference Finals. Based on regular-season record, they were the two worst teams to make the playoffs in many years, with only 88 points apiece. Montreal had to face the best regular-season team and then the defending champs, while Philly was down two of their top scorers, their top two goalies, and 3-0 in their second-round series. Talk about improbable! But here they are, and you have to give credit to both teams for their remarkable mental toughness. For the Flyers, they are as healthy as they’ve been in months – Simon Gagne returned against Boston and provided a big spark, and while there’s no official word on Jeff Carter, it seems possible he will return at some point in this series. For the Canadiens, it’s all about big goaltending and timely offense – for two rounds they have been heavily outshot and outchanced, but have had an amazing knack for converting the limited chances they did get. In addition, they have THE hottest goalie of the playoff season by far in Jaroslav Halak. Halak simply did not allow a single soft goal in the last six games of the Pens series, and he’s virtually unbeatable now. The Flyers HAVE to screen him and have to shoot high. Offensively the Canadiens figure to be outgunned again, but they’ve faced this before and probably feel that Philly will not be quite as tough offensively as Washington or Pittsburgh were. The Flyers have a reputation for taking too many penalties, and that’s a big key to this series – both teams have a strong power play, so the team that executes better and stays out of the box will have a great chance of advancing. I know that’s true in most series, but I feel like this series in particular will hinge on the Flyers’ discipline.
Key players: For the Flyers, I’m going with Richards and Pronger. Richards has 17 points in 15 games, but it’s been a relatively quiet 17 points and he will have to lead his team to victory in this series. Pronger was acquired for just this type of situation: to shut down an opponent’s top line. He will be on the ice against Mike Cammalleri almost every shift, and has to play strong and force someone else to score the Habs’ goals. For Montreal, it begins and ends with Halak – if he crashes to earth they simply have no chance. Additionally I’m going to say Thomas Plekanec – this team has gotten 19 of their 39 playoff goals from two players, Cammalleri and Gionta, and sooner or later they will need some sustained scoring from another line. He led the team in scoring in the regular season and needs to score three or four goals this series to give Montreal a shot.
As a Pens fan, figuring out who to root for is very tough – the Flyers are obviously not a palatable choice, but I’m not really interested in seeing Montreal win this series either. If their style prevails, it will be bad for the NHL. I believe that the league needs top offenses to win, and that an attacking style and creative offense should be able to prevail. I give Montreal TONS of credit, they’ve figured out that the only way they can win is to buy into their defensive style 100% – but it’s not all that fun to watch (pick any game of the Pens/Canadiens series and compare it to the Canucks/Blackhawks series – the Western series was FAR more entertaining, up-tempo hockey). So I guess I’ll grit my teeth and hope Philly prevails this round. But who do I THINK will win? Actually, an easier question. Teams like the Canadiens usually run out of steam at some point because the extraordinary individual performances come back to earth. Cammalleri cannot average almost a goal per game over an extended timeframe, Halak cannot save 93% of the shots he sees forever (well, ok, maybe he can, he’s made a believer out of me). I do think this series will be hard-fought, and Halak will probably steal another game or two – but unless Montreal gets a lot of secondary scoring, I think the Flyers will grind them down. I’m picking the FLYERS IN SIX. However, unlike the last round when I dismissed Montreal’s chances, their resilience has made a believer out of me – I would not be surprised at all to see this go seven games.
Chicago (#2) vs. San Jose (#1): There are many who feel this is the REAL Cup Final, much like the NFC championship game was the ‘unofficial’ Super Bowl throughout the 80’s. I believe that anything is possible in a short series, but clearly the Western team would be heavily favored in the Final, and deservedly so – these two teams have almost everything one could want in a hockey team: stars, scoring depth, grit, deep defense corps, and good goaltending. I think we will see something of a clash in styles here – the Sharks tend to favor a more patient style, and lean heavily on their top scorers for offense; the Blackhawks prefer an up-tempo, aggressive-forechecking style and tend to get more scoring throughout their lineup. That leads to two fascinating questions – if the game is up-tempo, can the Sharks match the Hawks’ pace?; and if the game slows down, will Chicago have enough patience to succeed? Another interesting question is in goal – San Jose has veteran Evgeni Nabokov, who has a long history of regular-season success and postseason mediocrity – but he’s played very well for the most part in this year’s playoffs. Chicago has young Antti Niemi, who was inconsistent in the regular season and has shown some of those same tendencies through two rounds this postseason as well. Overall the two goalies have put up very similar numbers, but Nabokov has been more consistent. Niemi HAS to find more consistency this series to give the Blackhawks a good chance to advance.
Key players: For San Jose, the same as last round, Joe Thornton. Big Joe woke up with a big series against Detroit, now he has to keep that going against an even tougher opponent. Joe Pavelski has played out of his mind thus far, but you have to figure he will cool off – San Jose will only go as far as Thornton and Dany Heatley take them. For the Blackhawks, aside from Niemi I think Marian Hossa is a key – San Jose will load up to stop Kane and Toews, forcing more pressure on Hossa and the second line. Hossa has long been viewed as an ideal complementary player, but he has only two goals in 12 playoff games (and only 33 in 110 playoff games, and 12 of those came in his 20-game run in Pittsburgh). The time is now for Hossa to step up and show he really is a second-tier star.
Another tough series to call, but I REALLY like the way Chicago is playing, they remind me so much of the 2008-2009 Penguin teams. I’d be shocked if it was a short series, and it really could swing either way, but I’m going with CHICAGO IN SEVEN in what has the potential to be THE most entertaining series so far.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.
(editor’s note — Article was submitted proir to series start)