NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
Philadelphia Phillies
2009 record: 92-70 (1st in division)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 86-88 wins
Key Additions: SP Roy Halladay, 3B Placido Polanco, SP Jose Contreras
Key losses: SP Cliff Lee, SP Pedro Martinez, P Brett Myers, 3B Pedro Feliz
The Eye’s Take: After back-to-back NL pennants and a World Series crown, what can the Phillies do for an encore? Only trade for Roy Halladay, arguably the best starting pitcher in MLB over the last two seasons. Halladay is as consistent as pitchers get – barring a freak injury you know you’ll get 200+ innings, great control, and 15-20 wins from him. Polanco is an upgrade over Feliz with the bat, probably a slight downgrade with the glove. The rotation looks very solid with Hamels, Blanton, and Happ behind Halladay, and the offense remains among the most potent in the game. The questions are in the bullpen – Brad Lidge still isn’t fully healthy, and depth is a serious question in the Philly pen. Luckily the bullpen is one of the easiest areas to address in-season through trades. Atlanta is definitely improved and you have to figure the Mets will recover from their injury-plagued 2009, but I think Philly wins one more division crown before Atlanta takes over. I see them with 89-93 wins and the playoffs again.
Florida Marlins
2009 record: 87-75 (2nd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 80-84 wins (but cautioned that this team had a wide array of possibilities)
Key Additions: none
Key losses: 1B Nick Johnson, RP Brendan Donnelly, RP Kiko Calero
The Eye’s Take: The Marlins are living proof that great scouting and drafting can overcome cheap/bad ownership. The Marlins NEVER spend any money, never sign free agents, and let a lot of talent leave when they get expensive – yet they’ve finished above .500 five of the last seven years. The secret is a great farm system and astute trades. The 2010 Marlins figure to be in the mix for the postseason – their offensive core returns, and all of their key batters are 30 or younger. The key for the Marlins will be the continued development of their pitching – they lost quite a bit of veteran bullpen experience. The rotation is young and promising, but aside from Josh Johnson lacked consistent results last season. I look for the rotation to improve, but as with so many teams the bullpen is unpredictable and will determine how far this team goes. In addition, the Marlins won 87 games but had the underlying numbers of an 82-win team – meaning they are likely to regress unless they see significant improvement. I think they will contend, but fade down the stretch as ownership once again fails to approve a bold in-season trade. Call it 82-85 wins for the Fish, with an outside chance at a wildcard.
Atlanta Braves
2009 record: 86-76 (3rd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 76-80 wins
Key Additions: 1B/3B Troy Glaus, RP Billy Wagner, RP Takashi Saito, RP Jesse Chavez, OF Jason Heyward, OF Melky Cabrera,
Key losses: SP Tom Glavine, RP Mike Gonzalez, SP Javier Vazquez, 1B Adam LaRoche, RP Rafael Soriano, 2B Kelly Johnson
The Eye’s Take: Wow, LOTS of roster turnover in Atlanta – but on the whole, they’ve improved. Going into last season I was down on them due to lack of offense, especially in the outfield, and unsure of their rotation depth. Well, they addressed the offense by trading for Nate McLouth – he’s not a star, but he was a real upgrade on what they had. Normally I don’t write about rookies here, but Jason Heyward is VERY close to can’t-miss; he’s considered by most to be the top hitting prospect in the game, and he will make an immediate impact in Atlanta. Overall, however, this remains an offense that is average at best, particularly when you consider the age/injury issues of Glaus and Chipper. No, this team won last year on pitching and they will need to do so again – last year the rotation was far better than I expected, led by the breakout of Jair Jurrjens, the arrival of top prospect Tommy Hanson, and the usual consistency of Derek Lowe. Javier Vazquez was traded, but Tim Hudson should be fully recovered from his elbow surgery, giving Atlanta the top NL rotation this side of San Francisco. The bullpen lost their closer and top setup man, and Billy Wagner has to prove he can handle a full-season workload. I love the starters and think this team will be the class of the East for much of the next decade…but not until 2011. I look for a few growing pains, a little regression from Tommy Hanson and Jurrjens, and a record similar or a little worse than 2009. Next year, though…look out, the Braves are back. 82-86 wins for 2010.
New York Mets
2009 record: 70-92 (4th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 92-95 wins
Key Additions: LF Jason Bay, C Rod Barajas, SP Kelvim Escobar, OF Gary Matthews
Key losses: 1B Carlos Delgado, OF Gary Sheffield, RP JJ Putz
The Eye’s Take: What a disaster 2009 was for the Mets – only 70 wins, injuries at almost every position, no one on the team hit more than 12 home runs…things cannot help but get better, right? Well…probably, but don’t expect a return to postseason glory. Yes, the team should be healthier, and adding Bay will definitely bolster what was one of the worst offenses in the league – but Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran are still not healthy, and aside from Bay and David Wright the offense still looks pretty weak. The pitching should be ok if Johan Santana is healthy, and the rest of the rotation has the potential to be above-average….but it won’t be enough to carry this offense, especially early in the season. I look for the Mets to start slowly without Beltran and Reyes, and then have to fight to get above .500 the rest of the way. 79-83 wins for the Mets, and a more complete rebuild after 2010 is my forecast.
Washington Nationals
2009 record: 59-103 (5th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 68-73 wins
Key Additions: SP Jason Marquis, C Ivan Rodriguez, 2B Adam Kennedy
Key losses: SP Livan Hernandez, C Josh Bard, OF Elijah Dukes, OF Austin Kearns
The Eye’s Take: My prediction was close last year – I predicted offensive improvement and terrible pitching, and that’s exactly what happened – the team ERA was 5.00, which led to a second consecutive 100-loss season. Help is on the way, though, in the form of Stephen Strasburg, the most-hyped pitcher to come up since Mark Prior. Just mentioning Prior tells you that there ARE no sure things, especially when it comes to pitchers, but barring injury this guy should be something special in D.C., starting sometime in June. The Nationals have other promise on the mound – John Lannan has emerged as a capable starter, they signed innings-eater Jason Marquis to provide stability, and there are a few other quality arms in the system. Matt Capps was signed to close, and is a good bet to bounce back after a terrible 2009. Offensively look for more of the same – slightly above-average run production thanks to Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman. Nyjer Morgan looks to build on his success with Washington, but beware – he doesn’t walk nearly enough to be a true leadoff man, and he won’t hit .351 this time around. Overall this team should improve – contention is still a couple of years away at best, but at least there’s some hope now for this forlorn franchise. I see 70-74 wins this year.
AL EAST
New York Yankees
2009 record: 103-59 (1st in division)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 95-100 wins
Key Additions: SP Javier Vazquez, 1B Nick Johnson, OF Randy Winn, CF Curtis Granderson
Key losses: LF Johnny Damon, C Jose Molina, DH Hideki Matsui, SP Chien-Ming Wang, PH Eric Hinske, OF Melky Cabrera
The Eye’s Take: This is what happens when you have the most money AND a smart front office. Last offseason the Yankees used their wallet to buy the best free-agents available in Sabathia and Teixeira, and those moves directly led to their World Series title. Can they repeat? They are a solid contender, but I’m worried about one thing: age. Last season Andy Pettitte (then 37), Derek Jeter (34), Mariano Rivera (39) and Jorge Posada (37) all had outstanding seasons – in each case reversing clear signs of decline. The odds of all of them continuing to find the fountain of youth in 2010 are slim at best – and depth is a real problem in the Bronx. Their front-line talent is the best in the game, but if Jeter or Posada or even Pettitte goes down, there’s not much quality to back them up. Last season the Yanks struggled all season to find starting pitching after their top-3 of Sabathia, Pettitte, and Burnett – while Joba Chamberlain made 31 starts, he was ineffective at best, and their 5th starters were simply a disaster. Vazquez was brought in to help stabilize that, but any injury to the rotation will be devastating. On offense, they are deep and powerful – again assuming no injuries, particularly on the infield. Nick Johnson is a perfect fit at DH, and Curtis Granderson is a capable CF (although he cannot hit lefties at all). Overall the Yanks should make the postseason one again, but I cannot help but feel it will be much more of a dogfight this time around, as the Red Sox are also looking strong and the Rays should rebound. Call it 90-95 wins and a probable division title for the Yanks – but keep the lack of depth in mind, more so than most leading contenders this team cannot stand much in the way of injury woes.
Boston Red Sox
2009 record: 95-67 (2nd in division)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 85-92 wins
Key Additions: 3B Adrian Beltre, CF Mike Cameron, SP John Lackey, SS Marco Scutaro, RF Jeremy Hermida
Key losses: LF Jason Bay, RF Rocco Baldelli, RP Billy Wagner, RP Takashi Saito
The Eye’s Take: Boston is a very tough team to figure – you know they will be a winning ballclub, and they definitely made some moves to improve – but it’s a VERY tough division, and they also have a lot of question marks. Losing the consistent offense of Jason Bay makes LF a question mark for the first time in over 10 years – Jacoby Ellsbury is a fine CF, but really doesn’t hit enough for a left fielder. Having Victor Martinez for an entire season shores up catcher, and with Pedroia and Youkilis there’s certainly a good core – but if Ortiz and Beltre do not have strong bounceback campaigns this won’t be a great offense. On the mound, adding John Lackey gives Boston the top rotation in the AL, with Beckett, Lester, and Buchholz rounding out the top-4. They should also have a strong bullpen. This division is VERY tough – really it will probably come down to injuries and in-season moves – but I’m going to pick Boston for 86-90 wins and BARELY finishing behind the Rays. Any combination among the top-3 teams in the East is quite possible, though.
Tampa Bay Rays
2009 record: 84-78 (3rd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 90-100 wins
Key Additions: RP Rafael Soriano
Key losses: RP Chad Bradford, RP Troy Percival
The Eye’s Take: After their magical 2008, regression reared its ugly head last season – the Rays finished a distant 3rd behind the Sox and Yanks. I look for a rebound in 2010 – they are still extremely young as a team and there’s still a lot of room for improvement with several of their young players. They actually scored more runs in 2009 than 2008, but their run prevention was much worse. I look for the offense to hold steady – Ben Zobrist might regress, but Pat Burrell almost HAS to perform better – but the pitching will be better. The bullpen was pretty bad in 2009, and the addition of Rafael Soriano to close should only add to their probable rebound. The rotation is chock-full of talent, and there’s more on the way in the minors. Finally, this is the season I expect a big move at the deadline to improve the team – they were playing with ‘house money’ in 2008, and were buried by the deadline in 2009 – this season it’s likely they will be in the mix and in position to trade some of their vaunted farm depth for immediate help. There are still flaws here, but this is a very dangerous team and I look for them to win 88-92 games and barely edge out the Red sox for the wild-card. It bears repeating, though – these three teams are so close that any of them could be the odd-man out.
Toronto Blue Jays
2009 record: 75-87 (4th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 70-75 wins
Key Additions: C John Buck, SP Dana Eveland
Key Losses: C Rod Barajas, 1B Kevin Millar, SS Marco Scutaro, SP Roy Halladay
The Eye’s Take: It’s gonna be a LONG year north of the border. There is some hitting talent on this team – Adam Lind broke out last year, and I expect Travis Snider to do the same this year, and Vernon Wells and Aaron Hill are good players – but the pitching is woefully inexperienced. Check out the expected starting rotation: Shaun Marcum, Ricky Romero, Brandon Morrow, Brian Tallet, and Marc Rzepczynski. No Roy Halladay means no sure thing in a rotation that was the league’s best only two seasons ago. In the rough-and-tumble AL East, if you cannot pitch you will get chewed up – and while the Jays received some fine talent for Halladay, that won’t matter in 2010. I look for a last-place showing, 65-70 wins from the Jays, who are in full-blown rebuilding mode now.
Baltimore Orioles
2009 record: 64-98
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 60-65 wins
Key Additions: RP Mike Gonzalez, SS Miguel Tejada, SP Kevin Millwood, 3B Garrett Atkins, SS Julio Lugo
Key Losses: SP Rich Hill, RP Chris Ray
The Eye’s Take: Baltimore is slowly climbing back to respectability. The offense is already there – this could be a top-5 offense if everything comes together. Look for a breakout from C Matt Wieters this year, and continued improvement from Adam Jones. Markakis, Roberts, and Tejada round out the offensive core. The problem is still the pitching – Kevin Millwood is a solid inning-eater, but if he’s your ace you’ve got a problem. The Oriole rotation, like Totonto’s simply will not be up to the task against the Beasts of the East. Their offense will keep them in a lot of games, and Mike Gonzalez will definitely help in the bullpen, but Baltimore’s window of contention is still at least a year or two away. 70-75 wins for the birds in 2010.
Monday we’ll round out our previews with the central divisions. Sneak peek: the Eye thinks the Pirates will lose almost 100 games – AGAIN.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.