AL WEST
Los Angeles Angels
2009 record: 97-65 (first in division; lost ALCS to Yankees)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 85-90 wins.
Key Additions: DH Hideki Matsui, RP Fernando Rodney, SP Joel Piniero
Key losses: SP John Lackey, DH Vlad Guerrero, 3B Chone Figgins, RP Darren Oliver
The Eye’s Take: OK, so the predictions of doom for the Angels went unfounded, as they exploded for all kinds of offense in 2009 – much more than I, or most others, predicted. Having said that, there are still big reasons to worry in Anaheim – they lost their top starter to free agency, and didn’t bring in a capable replacement; certain hitters, such as Bobby Abreu and Kendy Morales, are almost a sure bet to regress in 2010; and perhaps most importantly, the Mariners and Rangers made some big moves to catch the Angels this offseason. Yes, the Angels made a good late-season move in trading for Scott Kazmir, but the rotation is still more suspect now in Anaheim than it’s been in many years. The Angels will still be dangerous, but no way do I see 95+ wins for this squad. Just like last season I see 85-90 wins, and a chance for the division in Anaheim.
Texas Rangers
2009 record: 87-75 (2nd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 72-77 wins
Key Additions: DH Vlad Guerrero, SP Colby Lewis, SP Rich Harden, RP Darren Oliver, RP Chris Ray
Key Losses: SP Kevin Millwood, DH Hank Blalock
The Eye’s take: The biggest surprise in the AL last season, the Rangers look to take the next step in 2010. One has to wonder, however, if they will take one step back in 2010 before taking two steps forward next year – their run prevention was the worst in the AL in 2008 and improved by over TWO HUNDRED RUNS in 2009 – they will almost certainly give some of that back; the question is how much, and how good their offense can be to offset that. On paper the team looks to be improved – Guerrero is an upgrade over Blalock, Harden is a HUGE acquisition if he’s healthy (but that’s always the question with him, he’s never thrown more than 189 innings and usually more like 145), and youngsters like P Neftali Feliz, SS Elvis Andrus, RF Nelson Cruz, and CF Julio Borbon figure to improve as they gain experience.
On the other hand…if Harden isn’t 100% there’s no one you’d call an ace in the rotation, the bullpen is full of question marks, and 1B and C are no sure bets to perform offensively. Texas improved beyond anyone’s predictions in 2009 – the smart bet is slight regression in 2010, but look out in 2011. I’m saying 79-83 wins and 3rd place for the Rangers.
Seattle Mariners
2009 record: 85-77 (3rd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 72 wins (yeah, I messed this division up pretty badly)
Key Additions: SP Cliff Lee, 3B Chone Figgins, DH/LF Milton Bradley, Casey Kotchman
Key Losses: 1B Russell Branyan, 3B Adrian Beltre, C Kenji Johjima
The Eye’s take: By trading for Cliff Lee, the Mariners essentially went all-in for 2010. They look a lot like the Giants – two ace pitchers, good defense, a couple of good hitters, and a lot of questions after that. In Lee and Felix Hernandez, Seattle boasts possibly the top starting tandem in all of baseball, certainly the best in the division. Defensively they are strong up the middle, and on offense thay have the incomparable Ichiro and newly acquired Chone Figgins as very effective table-setters. The question is, can anyone drive those two home, and will the M’s have any starting pitching after King Felix and Lee? The M’s will never be a top offense with this group, but last year BY FAR the worst offense in the league, with only 640 runs all season (The Pirates scored 636 with no DH and an awful team). Much depends on Milton Bradley regaining his 2008 form, and Casey Kotchman adequately handling first base.
On the mound, the team will have three aces if Erik Bedard is effective again after surgery – his return is expected in May or June. David Aardsma was great as closer last season; can he put two good seasons back-to-back for the first time in his career? Will the rest of the bullpen hold up?
This club will prevent runs – there’s no question of that. However, to make the playoffs the offense needs to add at least 100 runs and I’m not sure where they will come from. I think Bedard will come back strong, but Bradley will not. The team likely will add offense in-season, but I think they JUST fall short to the Angels – call it 83-88 wins and 2nd place.
Oakland Athletics
2009 record:75-87 (4th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 85-90 wins
Key Additions: SP Ben Sheets, CF Coco Crisp
Key Losses: 2B Adam Kennedy, SS Bobby Crosby
The Eye’s take: Last season I predicted Oakland would score some runs but need good pitching to contend. They got the pitching, finishing 3rd in the AL in ERA, but only 9th in offense (runs scored). Things don’t look much better for 2010 – the offense is a collection of good-not-great hitters, and the rotation is full of youth and injury concerns. There is potential for an outstanding pitching staff if Ben Sheets and Justin Duchscherer are both fully recovered from injury, and the youngsters continue to improve – but with (at best) a league-average offense, I don’t see how Oakland can take the next step. The glory days of GM Billy Beane’s tenure seem long gone -call it 70-75 wins and last place again for the A’s.
NL WEST
LA Dodgers
2009 record: 95-67 (1st)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 78-82 wins
Key Additions:SP Vicente Padilla
Key Losses: SP Randy Wolf, 2B Orlando Hudson
The Eye’s take: The Dodgers are coming off a fantastic season – they had the best run differential in all of MLB last year, scoring 169 runs more than their opponents (Yankees were 2nd at +162). I said last year that they could win the division if ‘they got all the breaks’ – yet they won despite Manny Ramirez’ 50-game substance abuse suspension. Clearly I underestimated the Dodgers’ talent base – but will they be able to repeat their dominance? First of all, they return almost entirely intact – aside from swapping out Randy Wolf for Vicente Padilla in the roatation (a downgrade), the team is almost exactly the same as 2009. In some ways this is good – Clayton Kershaw is an ace in the making and will most likely become the Dodgers’ best starter in 2010, and with Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier along with Manny in their OF, the Dodgers might boast the best outfield in baseball. Manny is now almost 38 and you have to expect some decline and injury woes from him, but he’s still likely to perform well above-average at the plate. Really, barring injury this Dodger team still looks like the class of the west – I don’t think they will repeat their dominating 2009 performance, but I think 89-93 wins and another NL West flag is likely.
Colorado Rockies
2009 record: 92-70 (2nd, wildcard)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 68-72 wins
Key Additions: SP Jeff Francis (back from injury)
Key Losses: SP Jason Marquis, 3B Garrett Atkins
The Eye’s take: Where did THAT come from?? After trading Matt Holliday before the ’09 season, everyone figured the Rockies were rebuilding. When they got off to a slow (18-28) start and switched managers, it seemed like the start of a very long year in Denver – then, suddenly, the team got red-hot and stayed that way for the rest of the season, going 74-42 under Jim Tracy. The Rockies had a decent offense, but considering the Coors effect, it was not a great attack by any means – no, the key for the Rockies was their pitching, 10th overall in MLB and easily the best in their history. The key was the rotation – the Rockies had 5 pitchers start 27 or more games, all with an ERA under 4.40. This consistency kept the team in almost every game, and kept the pressure off of their thin bullpen. If Jeff Francis is fully recovered from shoulder surgery, the loss of inning-eater Jason Marquis will not be felt much. The issue here is depth – teams rarely have rotations as healthy as Colorado’s was a season ago, and should there be any attrition there appears to be precious little to back the rotation up. In the bullpen, closer Huston Street will begin the year on the DL – putting more pressure on a below-average unit. Offensively the team is little-changed from 2009, and will depend on Troy Tulowitzki, Todd Helton, and continued development from Carlos Gonzalez to anchor the attack. This team is not the Blake Street Bombers of the ’90’s, but they will score enough runs to compete – the question is, will they get the same pitching they got in 2009? I say no, they will suffer from regression and a few injuries and finish closer to .500 – I look for 80-85 wins and a virtual dead heat with the Giants for 2nd in the division, with an outside shot at a wildcard.
San Francisco Giants
2009 record: 88-74 (3rd)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 80-84 wins
Key Additions: 1B Aubrey Huff, 3B/util Mark DeRosa, SS Juan Uribe
Key Losses: SP Randy Johnson, RP Bob Howry, SP Brad Penny
The Eye’s take: At last, a West team I got mostly right last year! The Giants were an exceptional run-prevention team, tying the Dodgers for the least runs allowed (611). However, their offense was awful, finishing 26th of 30 teams with only 657 runs scored. 2010 promises to be a similar tale – the team has two aces (Lincecum and Cain) and two other good starters, so they figure to be among the league leaders in ERA again – can the offense improve enough to make the postseason? Aubrey Huff might help if he returns to 2008 form, but Mark DeRosa is 35 and not a good bet to rebound. Aside from ‘Panda’ Pablo Sandoval, there’s really no offense of note on this team. This team needs two or three real surprises on offense to contend – I think they will come up just short again. Call it 82-86 wins for the Giants, and a fight for 2nd place in the West.
San Diego Padres
2009 record: 75-87 (4th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 62-66 wins
Key Additions: SP Jon Garland
Key Losses: 3B Kevin Kouzmanoff, RF Brian Giles
The Eye’s take: There’s no getting around it – San Diego was very lucky last season. Outscored by 131 runs, they still won 75 games – most teams outscored by that margin will win 65-70 games. For 2010, there’s not a lot to smile about – Jon Garland is an innings-eater, not a savior. The rest of the rotation could be decent, but not great. Offensively the team has up-and-comers in Chase Headley and Kyle Banks, but the likely trade of star 1B Adrian Gonzalez looms this summer. In short, the rebuild continues in 2010 for the Padres, and I see almost no hope of contention…in fact the odds are high that they return to 2008 form. Call it 63-69 wins for the Padres and last in the West.
Arizona Diamondbacks
2009 record: 70-92 (5th)
Glass Eye’s 2009 prediction: 90-94 wins
Key Additions: SP Edwin Jackson, SP Ian Kennedy, 1B Adam LaRoche, RP Bob Howry, 2B Kelly Johnson
Key Losses: 1B Chad Tracy, SP Doug Davis, SP Jon Garland, SP Max Scherzer
The Eye’s take: While it’s tempting to take a mulligan for 2009 on this team because of ace Brandon Webb’s injury, the fact is that the team was disappointing in almost all facets of the game. The team never found a starter to replace Webb, the bullpen was by and large a disaster, and on offense aside from Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton the entire squad underachieved. In addition, most of the rotation is gone – Doug Davis and Jon Garland left as free agents, and promising Max Scherzer was traded. Having said that, there’s room for optimism in 2010 – Webb should return in May, the additions of LaRoche and Johnson could stabilize the offense (presuming Johnson’s miserable 2009 was an aberration), and there’s still at least SOME hope that Chris Young and Stephen Drew might still become above-average players. Justin Upton is well on his way to superstardom, and Dan Haren is a true ace. There are a lot of question marks on this team, but also a lot of possibilities. I’m not sold yet – Webb has to prove that he’s truly healthy, and he hasn’t even made a spring training start – and the back of the rotation is very suspect at this point. Still, they are much better than a 70-win club, I look for them to win 80-83 games and be right on the heels of the Giants and Rockies in what might end up being the NL’s most competitive division.
Later this week, we’ll tackle the East divisions, with the Central divisions to follow on Opening Day.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.