Now it gets serious – as Week 2 of the NFL playoffs draws near, the top four teams all spring into action, rested and on their home fields. However, if recent history is any indicator, one or two of these teams will not move on – used to be that the bye week/home-field combo was almost unbeatable for the #1 and #2 seeds – 24-15-1 against the spread and 33-7 overall from 1990-1999 – but not anymore . Since 2000, the bye teams are 15-20-1 against the spread and around .500 overall (according to statfox.com). Note that wildcard teams and lower-rung division winners have been much more common Super Bowl teams of late – the 2005 Steelers, the 2006 Colts, the 2007 Giants, and the 2008 Cardinals all made the ‘big game’ without the benefit of a bye week in January. Add to that the lack of a truly ‘dominant’ team in the NFL this season, and it’s easy to predict at least one road team win this weekend. Last week my record was 3-1, missing only the Cardinals game – so let’s lead off with them.
Arizona (+7) at New Orleans: First, let’s review last week’s game. Green Bay made a valiant effort to get that game to OT (aided by some very conservative play calling by AZ late), but Arizona deserved to win – they dominated that game on offense start to finish. Kurt Warner finished with more TDs (5) than incompletions (4) – unheard of, and in my mind that game sealed his eventual enshrinement in Canton.
About this week’s game – the over/under cannot get high enough for this game, it’s currently at about 57 points and I wouldn’t take the under on that for all the tea in China. I can EASILY see the losing team getting to 30 points here – neither defense is anything special, both offenses are quick-strike, high-tempo – in short, it sets up to be an aerial assault, one probably decided by turnovers and big plays. Mike Tanier of footballoutsiders.com put it best – the defenses don’t need to try to STOP the opposing offense; that’s a fool’s errand here. They need to think of it in basketball terms – limit possessions, get some key stops, force turnovers, and accept that you’re going to give up points. No outcome would surprise me here – Warner runs so hot and cold that if he is hot, he could put up 50 points – or if he gets out of rhythm, AZ could be held to under 20. On the other hand, the Saints were BRUTAL down the stretch, and I never like to see a team peak in October. Still, in a case like this I favor the rested team, the home team (especially with AZ coming off such a grueling contest) – I’m picking the SAINTS to win by about 10.
Baltimore (+6) at Indy: These two teams met earlier this season, and as they did so many times the Colts BARELY won, 17-15. Indy has been very banged-up, but their top players have essentially had three weeks to heal. This is important, because while they have been getting healthy, Baltimore has been getting beat-up – QB Joe Flacco is dealing with a hip problem which limited him to 4-of-10 passing last week, and safety Ed Reed has been dealing with injury all season. The Ravens’ cornerbacks are also quite vulnerable, and I expect Manning and the Colts to exploit this weakness.
Defensively the Colts will likely load up to stop the run and dare the hobbled Flacco to beat them. With a healthy QB I’d like the Ravens here; Brady and the Pats gave the Ravens a gift last week in the form of three early turnovers, allowing them to run the ball 50 times. Peyton Manning will not afford them that luxury. I like the Colts to win, but I like the Ravens to cover the spread – call it a 4-point Colt win.
Dallas (+3) at Minnesota: The legacy of two QBs rides in the balance here. For Brett Favre, if the Vikings lose – particularly if Favre plays poorly – his retirement shenanigans the past two offseasons will look even sillier than they do now, and he will likely leave the game for good, tainted by his selfishness in the offseason. For Tony Romo, winning one home playoff game isn’t enough – he NEEDS this win and a good performance to validate himself as a big-time QB. For all that, I really think this game will come down to the running game – both teams like to run, both defenses pride themselves on stopping the run, and the team that establishes the run the best will probably win the game.
Dallas comes in on a major roll, having destroyed Philly two weeks in a row, and averaging less than 10 points against them the last 10 games. Indeed, this Cowboys’ ‘D’ is probably the most underappreciated great defense in the last 10 years – they are consistent, physical, and fast. Minnesota also plays solid defense, but allowed 62 more points than Dallas. However, they scored 100 more points than the Cowboys, thanks in large part to Favre’s turn-back-the-clock season (4200 yards,68% completion, 33 TDs, only seven INTS – the completion % and INTs were career best figures for him). Perhaps no QB needed the bye and home-field more than Favre – at 40, he is prone to wearing down, and he hasn’t played well in cold weather in several seasons. In the Metrodome, with a week off, it’s hard to pick against the Vikings – but I am going with the COWBOYS in the Upset of the Week. I just think that the Cowboys’ D will be able to pressure Favre, that Dallas will be able to establish a strong running game, and that Romo will keep from making the big mistake that has haunted him at times. I think Favre will play good, but not great, and will end up disappointed again as all of Wisconsin cheers for Dallas.
NY Jets (+9) at San Diego: This is a Jet team VERY close to greatness. They have a suffocating defense, a solid running game, skill at WR – everything but a QB with the experience to go all the way. I just cannot help thinking that Sanchez is due for a ‘rookie playoff moment’, something like three or four turnovers in a tough road game – the kind that almost all young QBs experience. The Jets DO play great defense, but SD has a very diverse passing game and I cannot see the Jets holding San Diego to less than 24 points. Conversely, I cannot see Sanchez leading his team to the 25+ points needed to win this game. You never know, but I actually think the CHARGERS will cover this spread and win by two touchdowns, earning them a date with Indy for the AFC crown. For the Jets, they are already playing with ‘house money’ – this postseason is great experience for a young team on the verge of ruling the AFC East for the next few seasons.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.