Time for the Eye to focus on postseason picks – hopefully the playoffs will be exciting. I must admit that the second half of the NFL season wasn’t that intriguing to me. Sure, there were some fine individual moments, like Pittsburgh’s comeback vs. the Packers, but so many teams clinched early and so many other teams were so darned mediocre…just failed to capture my attention that much.
Before we get into the picks, however, I’d like to comment on the most exciting non-Penguin-related hockey game I’ve ever seen. Now, some of you will disagree and list the Miracle on Ice here, but I was 5 years old and didn’t watch that game. For me, Tuesday’s IIHF Junior World Championship game between the USA and Canada was hockey at its finest. It aired live on the NHL Network, which is worth a look if you are a hockey fan. Anyway, this game featuring 16-18 yr old kids had it all – plenty of goals (11 in all), speed, hitting, drama…everything except fighting (more on that in a minute). Team USA entered as a decided underdog – Canada had won the last five titles, and the game was played in Saskatchewan in front of a decidedly partisan Canadian crowd.
The game was back and forth for two periods – the USA switched goalies when it was tied 3-3, Canada switched theirs midway through the third period after their star goalie allowed the USA’s 5th goal on a BRUTAL rebound. Down 5-3, Canada looked to be done, but a power play goal with three minutes to go gave them momentum and they tied the game a minute later, sending the game to OT – which in international play is sudden death 4-on-4. I figured that the open ice would lead to a lot of scoring chances for these two incredibly fast teams, and I wasn’t disappointed – both teams traded great scoring chances until the US capitalized on a 3-on-1 break and won the game. The Canadian fans went eerily silent as the US celebrated, but then politely applauded both their own team’s valiant effort and the US’ shocking win – a great display of sportsmanship.
About the lack of fighting – you’ll hear lots of ‘experts’ praise the role of the fight and the goon in the NHL, saying that such actions actually prevent cheap hits and let the players ‘police the game’. This tournament shows the lie in that statement – I watched four games over the duration of the tournament, and not a single punch was thrown. There was one major penalty issued – for elbowing. There were still PLENTY of hard checks and thunderous hits, but 99% were completely legal and clean. If 18 year old kids can control their emotions, so can professionals. IIHF mandates a 1-game suspension for fighting. If the NHL adopted this rule fighting would become almost extinct immediately – as it is in all other major sports. Players like Eric Godard, Georges Laraque, and Donald Brashear are wasting roster spaces that could be used to promote creativity, speed, and skill in the NHL. Watch the Olympics next month for similar examples, you will find no goons there either. I hope that sooner, rather than later, the NHL sees fit to eliminate the fight and focus on the REAL appeal of hockey – the type of speed and skill on display this week between the U.S. and Canada.
On to the Round 1 NFL games – three of four are rematches of week 17 games, and the 4th game pits the Ravens and Pats, who faced off in a VERY close game earlier this season. All this makes these games rather difficult to figure – how hard were the Bengals and Cards trying last week? Were the Eagles unlucky, or are the Cowboys really that much better? How much will Wes Welker’s injury hurt the Pats? We’ll take them in the order that they will be played. The point spreads are taken from USA Today’s website.
Jets (+2.5) at Bengals: Very interesting line. I understand that the Bengals didn’t REALLY try that hard last week, and I know that the Jets are here only through the grace of the Colts – but the Jets TOTALLY manhandled the Bengals’ starters in the first half last week. Even if you leave that game aside, Cincy has gone 4-4 since 11/15, and all four wins were less than impressive, over PIT, DET, CLE, and KC. Their best performance the past two months was a close loss to SD. The Jets, by contrast, come in winners of five of their last six, including three road wins. Both teams are running game/defensive teams now (a real switch for the Bengals from the throw-a-lot days of 2005). The problem for the Bengals is they are the worst scoring offense BY FAR in the playoffs, only 305 points scored. Their point differential of only +14 is also the worst by far. I know that the last game skews that a little, but it doesn’t make up the difference between the Bengals +14 and the Jets at +112. I think that the Jets are simply the better team, and if Jets rookie quarterback Sanchez can take care of the ball (read: two turnovers or less), the Jets will win outright. I’m taking the JETS, both against the spread and outright.
Eagles (+4) at Cowboys: The Eagles are their usual Jekyll and Hyde selves this year – mixing a lot of good games with a few simply awful performances. One of the key threads to their losses is the complete lack of a run game – for the season the Eagles averaged exactly 24 rushes per game, but in their five losses they averaged 16 – and in three of the five losses they attempted less than 15 rushes, including only 10 last week against Dallas. The Eagle defense isn’t what it used to be, so the Eagles need to run to shorten the game and keep their defense fresh. Andy Reid goes through stretches where it almost seems like he wants to win a game without ever attempting a rush – if he tries that this week, the Eagles will get crushed. However, it’s easy to overreact to one game – the Eagles had won five straight before that game, and had they won would be the #2 seed in the NFC.
Dallas comes in as hot as anyone, especially on defense – they allowed only 17 points to the mighty Saints offense in Week 15, then shut out the Redskins and Eagles to end the season. Only TWICE all season did the Cowboys allow an opponent more than 21 points – Week 2 and Week 13, both losses to the Giants. They are clearly the best defense in the NFC; their questions are all on offense. On paper it looks great – diversified, powerful running game, 4400-yard passer in room, two receivers over 80 catches and 1000 yards – and yet the Cowboys scored only 361 points, worst among NFC playoff teams. At times the offense seemed to go completely out-of-sync, and get away from their rushing attack. The passing game lacks diversity, as after Austin and Witten no receiver caught even 40 passes. The Eagles have the corners to take away Austin, so the key for the Cowboys will likely be getting Witten against a LB and running the ball. I think that if the Cowboys rush the ball 30 times they will win, and sadly I think both will come to pass. Philly will keep it much closer but I like DALLAS by about seven points.
Ravens (+3.5) at Patriots: The Pats won the first matchup three months ago by six points, but Baltimore was driving for the winning score when an EASY dropped pass ended their hopes. Two interesting storylines here: NE is one of only two undefeated teams at home (MIN is the other), but the loss of top WR Wes Welker and his 123 catches might cripple an offense that already lacked diversity after Welker and Randy Moss. Statistically the Patriots had a good season defensively, but better offenses burned them, especially through the air. The Ravens outgained the Patriots in the October game, but probably passed too much – Ray Rice had over 100 yards but only 11 carries. Look for the Ravens to try to establish the run first, then beat the Patriots deep as their safeties draw closer to stop Rice. Also, Todd Heap could have a big day against a somewhat inferior LB corps for NE.
Offensively, NE matches up well against the Ravens, who have slipped quite a bit on defense. The Ravens can still stop the run, but they were very vulnerable against the pass in 2009, so look for Brady to pile up some yards against them, even without Welker. NE ran the ball better than you may think – they averaged 120 yards per game – but had no success last game vs. the Ravens, and I expect them to run less this time.
This game may well come down to turnovers and special teams play, and is the toughest call of the week for me. If Welker was healthy I’d take the home team, but I think right now the Ravens’ offense is better than the Pats’ offense, which leads me to believe BALTIMORE will win outright.
Packers (+1) at Cardinals: I’ll say this right up front: I think the Packers are a great bet to get to the Super Bowl. They play good defense, Aaron Rodgers has become a top-5 caliber QB, they can run the ball, and they can play in any conditions. The Packers finished the season winning seven of eight, all by six points or more – and the only loss in that stretch was the Steelers’ miracle comeback. If the Packers protect Rodgers, and in turn if Rodgers doesn’t commit turnovers, this will be a VERY tough team to beat in the playoffs.
The Cardinals are an enigma yet again – 10-6, two bad losses to the 49ers, the only really big win was against the Vikings – they seem much like last year, an average team. Now, I remember that they got VERY hot and almost won it all a year ago, but I find it hard to believe that they can just ‘turn it on’ again in the postseason. They do defend the run well, and when Warner is hot he’s still as good as anyone…a dangerous team, but this is a bad matchup for the Cards. Much closer than last week, of course, but I’m taking the PACKERS to win outright.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.