I make a lot of predictions in this column, as do a lot of writers around the Internet. Unlike most of them, however, I always try to look back after the season and acknowledge where I went wrong, and why (we’ll also look at the ones I got right, but we’ll spend less time on those). You can read the previews by clicking on Part 1, Part 2, and Part 3.
In the AL, my predictions were very much of a mixed bag. I was pretty accurate in the AL Central, decent in the AL East, and awful in the West. Let’s get the good ones out of the way: I predicted NY, TOR, and BAL properly in the East. I underestimated the Yankee win total, but I thought they looked like the best team and that proved out. Toronto and Baltimore were relatively easy calls, in that division neither stood a chance. In the Central my best call was the Twins, I had them winning the division with 88+ wins and they got 87. I predicted struggles for the Indians and White Sox; the Indians were far worse than I imagined, while the Sox didn’t make .500. KC was a little worse than I expected, Detroit a little better, but nothing way outside the range I talked about.
Now for the AL misses – in the East, I had Boston out of the playoffs and TB in. Tampa had a TON of players underperform and they finished 11 games behind the Red Sox. Boston’s offense didn’t struggle nearly as much as I expected – they actually scored MORE runs in 2009 than 2008, and their pitching remained among the best in the league. The miss was bigger on Tampa than Boston, I expected Boston to be in the mix and fall just short. I still expect a Tampa rebound next year, a lot of what happened to the Rays was bad luck and fluky seasons.
In the West, it’s a different story – I messed up every single team. I predicted the Angels and A’s to both have 85-90 wins, and the Rangers and Mariners to be in the 70-75 win range. Final win totals: Angels 97, Texas 87, Seattle 85, Oakland 75. I VASTLY overrated Oakland’s young pitchers, the team struggled with their rotation all season….definitely a lesson learned there. LA was much better than I expected, mainly due to the emergence of Kendry Morales and the continued production from Bobby Abreu – the Angels scored 883 runs, second only to the Yankees in all of baseball! In Texas, everyone missed on their pitching – the team allowed 967 runs in 2008 and only 740 in 2009. That’s an AMAZING turnaround, totally unpredictable – and also totally unsustainable. Barring a big turnover in personnel, look for Texas to allow a lot more runs in 2010.
As for Seattle, again it’s all about run prevention – they allowed 811 runs in 2008 and only 692 in 2009 – and led the AL by a wide margin in that department. Their improvement is even more amazing when you consider that they had only one pitcher throw 200 innings, and only two throw even 100 innings! I’m not going to research it right now, but I’d bet that they are the first team to lead a league in runs against with only two pitchers over 100 innings for the season. Felix Hernandez was the key – 238 innings, 19 wins, and a 2.49 ERA. He’s been around for awhile, so it’s easy to forget that ‘King Felix’ is only 23 – this looks like the start of something special for him. To sum up the West, I think everyone missed on Texas, and I still am amazed at LA’s great offense – but I should have been more cautious with Oakland’s pitching and allowed for Seattle’s pitching to rebound some, in part due to their pitcher-friendly park.
In the NL, the pattern is eerily similar – my predictions were good for the Central, decent (allowing for the unforeseeable Mets’ injury woes) in the East, and putrid in the West. Again, starting with the positive:
In the East, the Mets’ implosion affected everything, as the wins they lost added to the totals of the Phillies, Braves, and Marlins. I had Philly slipping a little, and I think they would have if not for the trade for Cliff Lee and the import of Pedro Martinez. I had a WIDE variance on Florida, saying anything from 70-88 wins was possible but figuring them as an 80-84 win team. They finished with 87, proving once again that good management can overcome fan apathy and low payroll. Washington was worse than I expected, but I didn’t expect much, and losing worked in their favor as they earned the #1 draft pick yet again.
In the Central, aside from the Cubs, I was very accurate, and again most of the Cubs’ problems were injury-related. I had the Cards as the only real threat to the Cubs at 88 wins (they got 91), the Brewers as a .500 team (they finished 80-82), Houston at 68-73 wins (they had 74) and Cincy with 75-80 wins (they had 78). I overestimated Pittsburgh’s win total at 70 when they ended up with 62, but given that they traded virtually anyone with experience away (I expected Wilson and Adam LaRoche to go, but not Gorzellanny, Snell, and McLouth), it wasn’t a bad prediction. Why did we do so well in the Central? I think because I follow it more than any other division, I have a good feel for the teams – it might also be blind luck.
Speaking of which, let’s look at those misses. I missed on Atlanta, who I called ‘one of the best under bets’ at 84.5 wins. They ended up with 86 wins. The McLouth trade helped their terrible offense, and their pitching was superb all year – I underestimated both their pitching and their ability to improve in-season. As for the Mets, I’m asking for a pass because everyone missed on them, their spate of injuries was far too great to predict.
I get no such pass for the NL West, however. Here are my predicted win totals, with their actual wins in parentheses: Dodgers 78-82 (95), Dbacks 90-94 (70), Rockies 68-72 (92), Giants 80-84 (88), Padres 62-66 (75). The Giants pick was close – everything else was awful. Why?
The Dodgers ended up with a far more balanced and diverse offense than I expected – Andre Ethier hit 31 HRs, easily a career high. Matt Kemp continued his rise with 26 HRs, also a career-high. Manny wasn’t as good as 2008, but when he was suspended Juan Pierre was amazingly effective, hitting .308 with a .365 OBP. I should have allowed for offensive growth by some of those young hitters to offset Manny’s decline. However my real miss was the pitching – the Dodgers allowed only 611 runs, tying with the Giants for best in MLB. I was worried about their dependence on rookie Clayton Kershaw, but Kershaw was awesome (30 starts, 2.79 ERA, 185 K’s in 171 IP) and looks like an ace on the rise. They got a great season from Randy Wolf also, which really stabilized the rotation. The bullpen was also a big key, as during the regular season they boasted five top relievers, allowing Joe Torre to be aggressive when his starters got in trouble.
Arizona’s problems began when ace Brandon Webb went down for the season in March – that was unforeseen. The rotation was still ok, but the bullpen was not good at all and many of their young hitters regressed in 2009. There’s still hope here – Justin Upton burst on to the scene, and I think some of the youngsters will rebound – but it was another big miss in large part because I overestimated their offense.
San Diego is a unique situation – their run differential was as bad as Pittsburgh’s, yet they won 13 more games and went 42-39 at home. Their relative success is mostly due to luck and that home park – teams that play in extreme parks tend to have a larger home field advantage than teams that play in neutral parks, and San Diego plays in the best pitchers’ park in MLB. In addition, their bullpen exceeded all expectations. So yes, it was a miss, but one I’m ok with because the underlying numbers indicate they should have finished with less than 70 wins.
I hit the SF pick pretty close, and in particular I figured they were trying to maximize run prevention and limp by with their offense – they almost pulled it off, staying in the wildcard race until the final week. The team they lost to, however, was my biggest miss of the year – the Colorado Rockies. I had them pegged for 90+ losses, and in my mind 100 losses was in play – yet they won 92 games and made the playoffs, all this after a bad start and a managerial change. What happened here?? Let’s not forget their usual extreme home/road split – 51-30 at home, best in the NL, and 41-40 on the road. Clearly their park helped them…but they DID outscore their opponents by 89 runs, and finishing over .500 on the road shows they were more than just lucky. Offensively, they had several players enjoy bounce-back years – Todd Helton hit .325 with a .416 OBP, Troy Tulowitzki hit 32 HRs and played a great SS, and overall the team had good offensive balance. I should have allowed for young Tulo to bounce back, but the resurgence of Helton was surprising.
On the mound, the Rockies were not spectacular but they were extremely solid – their rotation featured five starters making 27 or more starts, with ERAs between 3.47 and 4.38 – easily the most consistent rotation in their history. The bullpen likewise was effective if not outstanding – and in Colorado, effective is more than enough in that tough pitching environment. A lot of factors came together to make the Rockies my biggest miss, and as I see it the lesson is to look carefully for bounce-back possibilities. Overall I was too quick to anoint rookie players, particularly pitchers, and too quick to write off young players coming off a bad season. We’ll try to do better next season.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.