Well, that was kind of a dud, wasn’t it? Three sweeps and a start-and-stop 4-game series later, what have we really learned? Well, the first topic has to be the umpiring, which has generally been atrocious in the postseason – as many of you know I officiate several sports, but at this point I’m in favor of expanding replay over accepting obvious misses like the ‘foul’ ball in Game 2 of the Yankees-Twins series. MLB needs to take control of this situation by rewarding only the BEST umps with postseason work, by considering replay expansion, and by reducing the umps on the field from six to four. Umps work in 4-man crews for six months, then in the postseason the league adds two more bodies for no real reason. Before last Friday, when was the last fly ball fair/foul call you saw missed? I can’t recall one – and homeruns are now reviewed. Four umps is PLENTY; six puts a lot of people in unusual/uncomfortable situations.
We also learned that Albert Pujols cannot carry an offense COMPLETELY by himself; that the Angels can actually hit this season; that the Yanks are really good (yes, we knew that already); and that Jim Tracy isn’t a particularly good manager. Tracy made several tactical errors, but the biggest was allowing Ryan Howard to face ANY righthanded pitcher late in the game. Howard KILLS righties but has always had problems hitting lefties. Tracy stayed wedded to the myth that your closer HAS to pitch the 9th inning, and it cost him big-time. Charlie Manuel was far more flexible, and was rewarded for it. So, on to the League championship Series – LA x2, NY, and the defending champs. Some good stories here, let’s get to them…I went 4-0 last week in predicting winners, can that continue?
Angels vs. Yankees: We talked last week about the Angels’ historic problems beating Boston. The result proved once again that past performance means very little, important to keep in mind when you hear all about how the Angels have been ‘Yankee killers’ over the last decade. True enough, as the Angels beat them in the playoffs in 2005 and 2002, but that has NO bearing whatsoever on this series. The Yankees have the best offense in baseball, a durable ace, and the best closer in MLB history – they are rightly favored. The Angels have a high-contact offense, a deep rotation, and the intangible of the Nick Adenhart situation (we detailed that last week). Despite the Angels’ relatively strong rotation, New York is going to score runs in this series – they are too good to be held down over six or seven games. The Angels cannot count on holding the Yankees below four runs for more than one or two games of the series, which means their offense MUST produce and get into the Yanks’ only real weakness, their middle relief.
The Angels hit lefties and righties equally well as a team, but Sabathia is so good that I expect him to have two strong starts. The Angels need to get to Burnett and Pettitte, and be a patient group – the Yankees were below-average in walks allowed in 2009. Conversely, the Angels’ pitchers were among the best at not allowing walks, but the Yankees drew more walks than any team in baseball. The Angels don’t strike out a lot of batters and give up a relatively high batting average against (.272), so they HAVE to be stingy with the free pass. The Yankees will get their share of home runs, but if they are 2- and 3-run shots they will likely win the series.
The bullpen advantage has to go to the Yankees, if only because Mariano Rivera is the best, and he will pitch two or even three innings if needed to win a game. The rest of the Yankee ‘pen is very average aside from Phil Hughes – but the Angels do not boast a great bullpen either.
The offense and bullpen advantages, along with home-field, belong to the Yankees. The Angels have a somewhat deeper rotation and their ability to put balls in play mitigates the Yanks’ offensive advantage somewhat. In the end, though, the Yankees’ homer-prone home-field plays to their offensive strength so well (NY had the best home record in baseball) that I just can’t see them losing this series. My heart says Angels, and I’ll be rooting for them, but the pick is the YANKEES IN SIX.
Phillies vs. Dodgers: Another series where the media will play up past results – and since that result was only last year, there’s SOME merit to that, but again so much has changed in a year that I don’t think it’s relevant. Both teams have vastly different rotations – the Phillies picked up Cliff Lee and will likely start Pedro Martinez and/or rookie J.A. Happ, while the Dodgers are likely to feature an entirely different rotation than they did a year ago. Last season the Phillies’ bullpen was one of the core strengths of the team; this season, it has been a weakness. Last season, it was almost impossible to get Manny out; this season, he was good but not otherworldly. There are so many changes, it’s almost easier to talk about what remains the same – the managers, Hamels starting Game 1, and the core hitters on each side.
The key matchup in this series is the Dodgers’ rotation, especially lefties Kershaw and Wolf, against the Phillies’ lefty-heavy lineup. Surprisingly, the Phils hit lefties and righties about equally well as a team, but Howard is relatively helpless against lefties and Kershaw in particular has the potential to give the whole team fits. Kershaw gets the Game 1 start, meaning the Phils will have to face him at least twice in this series. The Phillies have a good rotation as well, especially when Lee and Hamels start, and if I were Manuel I’d strongly consider starting Pedro Martinez in Game 2 rather than Games 3 or 4 – Pedro is very fragile and the cold weather in Philly might not allow his arm to loosen up. After Happ’s poor start against Colorado, one wonders if Manuel will give him another turn or go with Joe Blanton.
The other important element in this series is the Phillies’ bullpen. I noted their relative weakness last week, but the Rockies also have a mediocre pen and that negated the problem for the Phils. Not so this time, as LA has a deep reliever corps and a manger in Joe Torre adept at using them to the team’s best advantage. Philly must recapture the bullpen magic of ’08 to win this series.
In all, I have to go with LA here, on the strength of their lefty-leaning rotation and their superior bullpen. Home field plays a part here as well, as Dodger Stadium is tough on power hitters, negating a sizeable Philly advantage at the plate. I think Joe Torre will get the chance to face his old team – DODGERS IN SIX.
Barring sweeps in both series, we will finally get to my MLB preseason picks review next week.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.