Last October, we had a lot of new stories – the Rays, the White Sox, the Brewers – this season the big boys struck back, and high payroll, big-market teams rule the day in 2009. There are two true underdog stories – the Rockies, who came out of nowhere, and the Twins, who overcame a 7-game deficit in the last four weeks to win the American League Central. First team to 11 wins gets the prize – who will it be? Let’s take a look at the first round…
St. Louis Cardinals (91-71) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (95-67): Both teams surprised me this season, and in both cases the pitching was the main reason for their success. The Dodgers actually IMPROVED over 2008’s excellence (only 611 runs against, easily leading MLB), and the Cardinals got HUGE seasons from Chris Carpenter (2.24 ERA) and Adam Wainwright (2.63 ERA). The Dodgers didn’t have anyone dominate quite that way, but they feature two excellent starters of their own in Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf. Both lefties totally neutralized opposing southpaw batters, but were less effective against right handed hitters – unfortunately, the Cards’ best hitters, Pujols and Holliday, bat righty. How the Dodgers fare against those two will go a long way toward determining the series.
The other key matchup is in the bullpen, a classic contrast in styles. Tony LaRussa mixed and matched even more than usual this season, patching together an unimpressive group of arms into an effective bullpen. However, there are no ‘shutdown’ guys in his pen and certainly no feared strikeout guys. On the other hand, Joe Torre has his preferred style as well…an overpowering closer in Jonathan Broxton, a very good set-up lefty in George Sherrill, and a strong, flame-throwing supporting cast. I’ve got to give the edge to the Dodgers from the 7th inning on.
The Dodgers’ offense is deeper than St. Louis’, but I think that will be neutralized by the Cards’ superior top of the rotation. This should be the closest, most intriguing first-round series – keep in mind that ANYTHING can happen over the course of a 5- or 7-game series, but this one is closer than most. LA has home field advantage, and combined with their superior depth I think they have just enough to win this series. DODGERS IN FIVE.
Colorado Rockies (92-70) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (93-69): The top two offenses in the NL, playing in the two best ballparks for offense in the league – don’t expect too many 1-0 games in this one. The Rockies are an on-base machine – they have five regulars with an on-base percentage above .360. However, they have their typically huge home/road split, which makes home-field huge for Philly. The Phillies were an excellent hitting team all season both at home and on the road, and continuing that balance on offense is crucial for them to advance. Philadelphia’s best hitters are left-handed, but Colorado isn’t in a position to exploit that – their only lefty starter, Jorge De La Rosa, is injured and will miss the series, a serious blow to their chances. They do have a couple of lefties in the ‘pen, but only Franklin Morales was notably effective against lefties.
Colorado’s rotation (with De La Rosa out) is basically ace Ubaldo Jimenez and three interchangeable righties. Jimenez has electric stuff and could be a difference-maker for the Rocks if he has two strong starts. Their bullpen is fairly pedestrian outside of closer Huston Street, who enjoyed a strong comeback campaign in 2009. Philly’s bullpen is a mess – closer Brad Lidge was awful all year, which forced a chain reaction of role changes late in the year. The Phils are flat-out short of quality bullpen arms, which puts a lot of pressure on their starters to work 7+ innings in the postseason. Happily, with Hamels, Lee, and Blanton, the Phils have three good starters with proven durability. I thought Hamels was hurt to start the season, but he made it through without any major problems and actually improved throughout most of the season.
Both of these teams can hit, both bullpens are marginal, it comes down to the rotations and I like Philly’s better than Colorado’s. The Rockies’ significant home/road splits also factor in here – PHILLY IN FOUR.
Minnesota Twins (87-76) vs. New York Yankees (103-59): Fresh off of their amazing win Tuesday night (and if you missed that game, shame on you for six weeks – a FANTASTIC winner-take-all game), the Twins had to pack up and head to New York for Game 1 tonight at 6:00 PM ET. Everything works against the Twins here – their bullpen is tired from the 12-inning game, the Yankees are rested, the Twins’ road record wasn’t good (38-43), and the schedule for this series alleviates the Yankees’ biggest problem (pitching depth). They’re starting Brian Duensing tonight against CC Sabathia – I had never even HEARD of Duensing before last week! So how can the Twins pull off the monstrous upset? Split in Yankee Stadium and ride the Metrodome Mojo for all it’s worth. The schedule helps the Twins also, after today – only one set of back-to-back games the whole series, and the off-day tomorrow will allow the pitching staff to regain their stamina. Minnesota’s only true advantage is in the bullpen, where they have superior depth and their closer is almost as good as ageless Mariano Rivera.
Offensively, with 1B Justin Morneau out for the year it’s really no contest – the Yankees had the best offense in all of baseball BY FAR. Aside from catcher (look at Joe Mauer’s stat line, and remember those numbers are for a CATCHER – he’s going to the Hall of Fame someday), the Yankees are better than the Twins at every position. The same holds true for the rotation – New York boats Sabathia, AJ Burnett, and Andy Pettitte, while you may have never even heard of the Twins’ top two starters (Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn). Anything is possible in baseball, but the odds are EXTEMELY stacked against the Twins, especially in today’s game. I’m no Yankee fan but I cannot go against the odds here – the Twins steal one game but it’s the YANKEES IN FOUR.
Boston Red Sox (95-67) vs. Los Angeles Angels (97-65): This series seems to happen every year (in fact it’s the third straight first-round meeting between these teams), and have the same ending (Boston has never lost a playoff series to the Angels in four previous meetings). What makes 2009 any different? Well, there’s a statistical answer to that and an emotional answer. Emotionally, no team is more prepared for the postseason than these Angels – after rookie P Nick Adenhart was tragically killed in a car crash in April, the team rallied around his memory and exceeded all expectations. Statistically, these Angels are much better offensively than they have been since their World Series run in 2002. They led the league in batting average, finished 2nd in runs scored, and feature a very balanced attack. Bobby Abreu was the PERFECT addition for this team – he’s left-handed and gets on base a lot, traits sorely lacking in prior Angel teams. 1B Kendry Morales finally broke out, providing the team with much-needed power. Overall they are not really a slugging team, but they pressure the defense with contact and speed. Boston’s offense was also very productive, but the Sox are more of a traditional slugging team – more strikeouts, more home runs, they stole 120+ bases but Jacoby Ellsbury was responsible for 70 of those himself (easily setting a new Boston record). Overall the offenses are close to even, but that’s a big change from the large offensive advantage Boston enjoyed over the Angels in years past.
Surprisingly, the Red Sox seem to have a slight advantage on the mound. Their top two starters, Lackey and Beckett, are better than anything LA has, and the Boston bullpen is EXTREMELY deep – probably the deepest in MLB – while the Angels have had major issues in their bullpen. Game 3 will be fascinating to watch, as it features Scott Kazmir against Clay Buchholtz. Both pitchers struggled most of the year, to the point that Kazmir was basically given to the Angels as a salary dump and Buccholtz was sent to the minors – but both rebounded strongly. Boston’s weakness is rotation depth – after Buchholtz there are a lot of questions marks, and frankly it’s hard to count on Buchholtz himself just yet. Kazmir has established himself in years past, so it’s easier to believe he simply ‘found it’ again.
TOUGH series to call here – history is on the Sox’ side, emotion is on the Angels’ side. Boston was below .500 on the road, while the Angels were almost equally good home and away. Since the Angels have home-field I’ll go with the ANGELS IN FIVE, but it could really go either way.
Three out of four series should be quite competitive – enjoy October baseball!
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.