Last week, we previewed the west – this week let’s tackle the east, including the defending champion Penguins. As before, we’ll spend more time dissecting the good teams than the bad ones.
Eastern Conference
Northeast Division
Boston Bruins: The best team in the East a season ago, Boston looks to take the next step – postseason success. This is a very deep team at forward, so deep in fact that they elected to trade young winger Phil Kessel for draft picks (salary cap problems contributed to this as well). Milan Lucic looks to be the next great Boston power forward, Marc Savard is one of the best passing centers in the game, and they have two other 20-goals scorers coming back as well. On defense they aren’t extremely deep, but with hulking Zdeno Chara playing almost 30 minutes per game they don’t need to be deep.
The big question on this team to me is G Tim Thomas – he is coming off an amazing, Vezina-trophy-winning season that came almost out of nowhere. Thomas was a BIG reason that the Bruins were so successful, but at age 35 it’s a virtual certainty that 2009 was his ‘career year’. How much Thomas falls back to earth will determine the same for the Bruins, as backup Manny Fernandez is also 35 and no improvement over Thomas. I expect Thomas’ 2010 to look a lot like 2008 – he will be a good goalie but not elite, and at his age you have to expect an injury along the way as well. The Bruins will gladly trade regular-season prowess for some postseason glory, but that too will largely depend on Thomas. I’m predicting the division title, but with far fewer points – call it 100-104 for the Bruins in a fairly weak division.
Buffalo Sabres: The Sabres are a very interesting team to me. They had a 40-goal scorer in Thomas Vanek, five other players with 17 or more goals, a good goalie in Ryan Miller, and a top-10 power play – yet they missed the playoffs. Part of the problem is on defense, as the Sabres have no ‘shutdown’ defenseman nor any scoring defensemen of note. Historically, good teams have at least one top-tier defenseman, and usually two. Until the Sabres upgrade their ‘D’, they will remain a fringe playoff team. They barely missed last season, and that’s about what I see for them this season – in the mix for the #8 spot, but just missing with 86-90 points.
Montreal Canadiens: No team went through as dramatic an overhaul as the Canadiens did this offseason; gone are Alex Kovalev, ex-captain Saku Koivu, Robert Lang, and Alex Tanguay (four of their top five scoring forwards). New are Scott Gomez, Hal Gill, Brian Gionta, and a few other lesser players. Frankly, this is a very hard team to predict due to all of the turnover, but one key is G Carey Price. He burst on the scene as a 20-yr-old rookie in 2008, but melted down in the playoffs and experienced a disappointing sophomore campaign last season. Price is still considered a top goalie prospect, and Pens fans remember the early struggles of Fleury before he put it all together – don’t write off Price yet, folks.
I think Montreal will play a bit better defensively but score fewer goals – Gomez isn’t a goal-scorer and Gionta is past his prime, I also don’t see a superstar forward in the wings here. Last season the Canadiens barely made the playoffs, taking the #8 seed and then getting waxed by the Bruins. Barring some major in-season moves, I see about the same fate for 2010 – 90-94 points and a fight for the last playoff spot. Price will be just enough to scrape them into the playoffs.
Ottawa Senators: I give GM Bryan Murray a lot of credit for taking some risks to improve this team, as it had become clear that major changes were needed. The 2007 Cup finalists have fallen fast, not even contending for a playoff spot in 2009. Murray’s big splash was trading Dany Heatley to the Sharks for Jonathan Cheechoo and Milan Michalek, a deal that he won in my opinion. Cheechoo may never score 50 goals again, but he’s a good bet to rebound from a poor 2009, and Michalek is only 21 and already an offensive threat.
The lesser-known but perhaps just as important move was trading for G Pascal Leclaire. Leclaire had been shunted to the sidelines in Columbus with the emergence of Steve Mason, but he should fit in perfectly with the goalie-starved Senators. The bad news: like the Sabres, this team has no top-notch defensemen, and while they’ve improved their scoring depth it is still an issue. Daniel Alfredsson and new winger Alex Kovalev, both aged 36, must find the fountain of youth to give this team a chance to contend. The Heatley trade is a win for the Senators long-term, but in 2010 I can’t see the Sens as a serious threat for the Cup. However, I think they can sneak in the bottom of the playoff picture. Call it 90-94 points and a bottom-tier playoff position for Ottawa.
Toronto Maple Leafs: It’s been a long time since the Leafs were credible contenders – they haven’t made the playoffs since the lockout in 2004. There’s a new sheriff in town, though – Brian Burke has come over from the Ducks to rebuild the franchise. Burke is kind of the Bill Parcells of the NHL – wherever he goes, teams win. He rebuilt the Canucks and Ducks, and both are still viable contenders in the west, so Leafs fans are naturally quite optimistic. I am as well over the long haul, but I think 2010 holds little promise of postseason glory. Burke traded for Phil Kessel, and he’s a great player, but there’s not a lot of forward talent around him. Perhaps most damaging is that Burke sent his next two 1st-round draft picks to Boston for Kessel. I think that was a serious mistake for a team in need of a major overhaul.
The defense is OK but nothing special; but Burke did manage to bring in the top free-agent goalie, Jonas Gustavsson from Sweden. Known as ‘the Monster’, Gustavsson is supposedly one of the top goalies in the world. Toronto’s goalies were atrocious in 2009, so he will certainly give them an upgrade – how much of an upgrade remains to be seen. Burke is far from done making moves, look for a bevy of deals during the season if the Leafs aren’t playoff contenders. Barring a miracle (or Gustavsson being the next coming of Hasek), the Leafs will miss yet another postseason. Call it 80-85 points in Leaf land, but the future finally looks brighter.
Southeast Division
Atlanta Thrashers: Atlanta has to be considered the worst franchise in the NHL, with only one playoff appearance in their history and no real hope for the immediate future. They have but one bonafide star, Ilya Kovalchuk, and he is a free agent at season’s end. Slava Kozlov is a decent complementary player, but he’s 37 and also likely to be traded. The team imported free agents Nik Antropov,and Pavel Kubina to try to convince Kovalchuk to stay, and newly drafted Evander Kane could be a future superstar – but my bet is that Kovalchuk forces a trade and the rebuild goes on in Atlanta. 70-75 points and the basement in the east for the Thrashers.
Carolina Hurricanes: Last year’s surprise Eastern Conference finalist, the Canes were the Comeback Kids until the Pens slaughtered them in the 3rd round. G Cam Ward has developed a reputation as a big-game standout, but he was quite mediocre against Pittsburgh and it will be interesting to see if there’s any carryover this season. Carolina’s biggest flaw is the same as last season – they are essentially a 1-line offense. Eric Staal is a great player and Ray Whitney had a brilliant season, but no one else had more than 55 points. The defense can score but is also suspect in their own end at times.
Ward is clearly a good goalie, and he’ll have to be even better to make the ‘Canes a true contender in the rugged East. Another team seemingly always on the periphery of the playoff picture, I’m calling for Carolina to miss the playoffs this season with 86-90 points.
Florida Panthers: Florida surprised many by contending all season for a playoff spot – the team ended up tied with Montreal and missed the postseason due to a tiebreaker – and all that despite losing sniper Olli Jokinen after 2008. If Florida is to surprise again they will have to overcome the loss of yet another top player – D Jay Bouwmeester left as a free agent, and his 20 power play points will be hard to replace. Florida has a TON of scoring balance – 11 players finished with 12 goals or more – but no stars at all (no player had more than 31 goals or 61 points). Nathan Horton is the closest they have; Horton posted 22 goals in only 67 games last season. Still, the team desperately needs a difference-maker on offense.
Defensively the loss of Bouwmeester is huge and will be felt. The team has other capable defenders, led by Bryan McCabe and Keith Ballard. The goalies are solid – Thomas Vokoun posted a solid .926 save percentage, yet only finished slightly above .500 for the season. It’s hard to see this team slipping much, but it’s also hard to see them improving a lot. The division is extremely weak outside of the Capitals, and someone has to finish second – it will be a battle between the Panthers and Hurricanes for that position, but I see the Panthers winning out due to their depth. 92-96 points and a lower-tier playoff berth for the Panthers.
Tampa Bay Lightning: After two years of big-time losing, and a failed spending spree a year ago, the Lightning hope to turn it around in 2010. Despite all the big-money contracts last season, Tampa simply didn’t score – only the Islanders scored less goals in the East than the Lightning. Tampa was EXTREMELY top-heavy – five players scored more than 19 goals, but no one else even got NINE goals! The problem will likely continue this season, as the Tampa didn’t bring in any notable free agents. However, the return to health of Vincent Lecavalier and the continued development of Steven Stamkos should lead to a few more goals. Top draft pick Victor Hedman may make the squad as an 18-year old, very rare for a defenseman, but the rest of the defense looks average. The goalies have some potential, but there will be no miracles here – look for some improvement but no playoffs for Tampa Bay. 70-75 points is the forecast.
Washington Capitals: The difference between winning and losing can be razor-thin. The Caps and Pens played seven games last spring – three went to overtime, five were 1-goal affairs, and while Game 7 ended up a laugher, had Ovechkin buried an early breakaway the game may have turned out far differently. A bounce or two was all that separated Washington from a probable Cup Finals berth – hard for me to imagine that the Hurricanes could have kept pace with the Caps any more than they could with the Pens. With a young, hungry team, it’s easy to see the Capitals as favorites to come out of the East. They have all kinds of scoring – nine players with 10 or more goals, three with 30+, and of course Ovechkin led the league with 56. As long as Ovechkin is healthy, this team is as dangerous as any in the league.
The questions are on the defensive end – Mike Green led all defensemen in scoring, including an amazing 31 goals, but was prone to lapses in his own end (especially in the postseason). Aside from Green, no other ‘D’ man scored more than three goals, and Washington was prone to giving up tons of chances in their own end. Indeed among all playoff teams, only Montreal allowed more regular-season goals last year. Part of the problem was also in goal – Jose ‘three-or-more’ Theodore had a bad season and was replaced after only one game in the playoffs. His replacement, 21-year-old Simeon Varlamov, was nearly impenetrable for 10 games before the Pens finally solved him late in their series. Caps fans look to Varlamov to be the team’s savior this season, but once the league gets ‘the book’ on Varlamov he may be vulnerable. In other words, don’t expect him to be the next Brodeur just yet.
For the regular season, it’s hard to pick anyone to beat the Capitals – their combination of youth, speed, offensive skill, and a weak division should get them the top seed for the playoffs. Whether they convert that into a Cup run depends almost entirely on the strength of their defensive game, and the health of Ovechkin. Call it 105-110 points and the President’s Trophy for the Caps – but don’t print those Cup Final tickets just yet.
Atlantic Division
New Jersey Devils: Every year I think the Devils will begin to slow down – that Brodeur will begin his decline – that the Devils will FINALLY miss the playoffs in the East. Every year, I’m wrong, and never more than last season as they not only made the playoffs, they were the division champs. Let’s get this out of the way – I’m picking them to make the playoffs. However, I still see the same warning signs I saw last year, and I think they will definitely decline.
Offensively the team was VERY surprising last year – they scored 244 goals, not a huge number but above average. Zach Parise can now safely be called a star – with 45 goals and 94 points at age 25, he’s the kind of player you build around. With the return of the ‘trap master’, Jacques Lemaire, as coach, expect a little less offense but he still will shine. Much of the rest of the offense is less clear – Patrick Elias scored 31 goals but will miss the first month or more with injury, Jaime Langenbrunner is more likely to score 10 goals than the career-high 29 he scored last year, and Brian Gionta is gone. Expect the offense to struggle more in 2010.
Lemaire will institute his trap system and try to play low-scoring games; the problem is that the Devils only allowed 209 goals a season ago, and to expect much improvement there is folly. Only three teams allowed less goals than New Jersey last year, and one of them was Lemaire’s old team, Minnesota. With Brodeur aging (he’s 37 and suffered a major injury last season) and top backup Scott Clemmensen now in Florida, it’s hard to see how the Devils will improve their goals-against.
Overall this is still a tough team to play against, and GM Lou Lamoreillo always seems to make the right moves – but I look for the Devils to struggle much of the season and make the playoffs as a lower-tier team. 94-98 points for the Devils.
New York Islanders: The laughingstock of the division for several years, the Islanders aren’t QUITE ready to contend but they will surprise a lot of teams this year. #1 overall draft pick John Tavares joins a young, skilled core that reminds me a little of the 2006 Penguins. Goalie was a problem area last season, but the Isles added Martin Biron and Dwayne Roloson to hedge against the health of Rick DiPietro. The stability in goal alone is worth a few wins; combined with the offensive development of Tavares, Kyle Okposo and others, I see a 10-20 point improvement for the Islanders. Call it 75 – 80 points, still last in the division but much more competitive.
New York Rangers: The Rangers made some big moves yet again this offseason, but it’s hard to see what they gained. Leading scorer Scott Gomez was sent packing; talented but injury-prone Marian Gaborik was brought in. The team simply didn’t score last season, so there’s a TON of pressure on Gaborik to come through. It says here that he will replace Gomez’ production but not much more, as the NY pressure will affect him and he probably will miss 10 games due to injury. There’s other forward talent on the team, but most of it is on the wrong side of their peak – and freak show Sean Avery is still around, ready to combust at any moment.
Aside from Gaborik, the team’s fate largely rests on the skills of G Henrik Lundqvist. The all-star goalie has been extremely consistent since joining the Rangers, and the team will need him to be better than ever to compete in 2010. The defense is frankly not that great – a lot of decent stay-at-home guys, and Marc Staal is developing, but no good power-play QB’s here. If the Rangers don’t find some more goals, they will be passed by in the tough Eastern Conference. The Atlantic has supplied four playoff teams the past two seasons but I think that ends this season – the Rangers miss the playoffs with 83-88 points.
Philadelphia Flyers: After losing to the Pens the last two playoff seasons, the Flyers did what they do best – they got more nastiness. Enter Chris Pronger, the big defenseman who has been suspended several times for dirty play. Also enter G Ray Emery, who was so cantankerous in Ottawa that he was bought out – the year after taking them to the Cup Finals! GM Bobby Clarke will never change, he always wants to throw more muscle at a problem. The addition of Pronger may well pay off in the short-term, as he is still a top-tier defenseman who can be counted on for 10-15 goals and 50-60 points per season. However, they signed him to a ridiculous contract at age 34, which may well handicap them in future seasons when they have salary-cap issues. Emery is more problematic – reports are that he’s conquered his demons, but how will anyone be sure until the first rough stretch for the Flyers, when the boos rain down from the Wachovia rafters?
With the departure of goalies Martin Biron and Antero Nittymaki, Emery has a TON of pressure on him to make a huge comeback. The team has plenty of offense to support him (although both Joffrey Lupul and Mike Knuble are gone, and they were two of the top six scorers), and a good mix of youth and experience on defense. The Flyers will win their share of games and make the playoffs, but how dangerous they are in the postseason depends on whether Emery is the answer, and if he fails what Clarke can do to address the position midseason. Either way, it’s never boring in Philadelphia. Call it 96-100 points and the #4 seed for the Flyers.
Pittsburgh Penguins: Last but certainly not least, the defending champs look to get back to the Finals for a third straight season. As usual there is a solid core surrounded by question marks. One would hope that the credentials of Marc-Andre Fleury are now beyond question after his Game 7 performances a year ago – if he is healthy, the Pens have no worries in goal. Yes, he still allows a softie from time to time, but he makes saves other goalies simply cannot make. Malkin might get even better (scary thought), and the same could be said of Jordan Staal.
This may surprise you, but I actually think the defense is a strength of this team – they aren’t a huge group, but they have a lot of fast-skating puck-movers (Gonchar, Goligoski, Letang), a big hitter in Orpik, and two excellent stay-at-home guys in Eaton and McKee. Scuderi will be missed, but Hal Gill will not – Gill was on the hairy edge of being too slow last season. He was allowed to walk at just the right time. Gonchar is still a premier offensive defenseman and has drastically improved in his own end – just look at how the team improved when he returned last February.
Another surprise: Crosby may be as good as he’s going to get. His top goal output came his rookie season; he’s missed significant time the last two years with injury (and health is DEFINITELY a skill), and while he’s only 22, he plays a very physical, grinding, in-the-corners style of hockey. I hope I’m wrong – I hope Crosby comes out and puts up 130 points and makes me look silly – but barring that, if and when the time comes to keep Crosby or Malkin, right now my money would be on Malkin.
Back to 2010 – if Guerin can stay healthy and productive all season and Talbot comes back strong, this team should be every bit as good as last season. I expect Ray Shero to work his usual deadline magic and improve the team in March, and I expect the team to make their usual late-season charge to the postseason. I do expect a slow start after the short offseason, although I don’t expect the doldrums to last into February like they did last season. Barring a big injury (as usual), I see the Pens as division champs and the team to beat in the East until someone knocks them off. Call it 102-106 points and the #2 seed in the East – if both teams avoid upsets, that would set up an AWESOME Conference Final against the Caps. The NHL is hoping that comes true.
Next week we’ll have two columns – a Monday column to preview the MLB playoffs, and Friday we will begin our MLB review and laugh at my predictions as usual.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.