With the NFL season nearly upon us, it’s time for my annual team predictions. Keep in mind, I picked the Lions to win 9 games last year, so these are DEFINITELY for entertainment purposes only. We’ll start with the NFC and AFC East divisions this week. With each team I’ll list the 2008 record, final 2008 offense/defense rank (based on points for and against). Rather than go over all the key additions/departures for each team, I’m going to send you to this site, which has each team’s key moves and draftees.
AFC EAST
Miami – 11-5 (1st), 345 Points For (21st), 319 Points Allowed (9th): Perhaps the biggest surprise of the 2008 season was Miami’s rise in the AFC East. Coming off a 1-15 season, most people expected only moderate improvement – instead, once again, Bill Parcells engineered a rapid turnaround through some savvy trades, signings, and draft picks. QB Chad Pennington got the last laugh on the Jets for running him out of town, and the defense was solid. However, the ’08 Dolphins will almost certainly be remembered mainly for their ‘Wildcat’ offense, which became a league-wide phenomenon by season’s end. I think the offense has arrived to stay, and Miami clearly agrees – Pat White was drafted almost solely to run the Wildcat, I’d bet – but now that the league has had a look at it, expect its effectiveness to diminish somewhat.
Miami worked hard to solidify their secondary via free agency and the draft, and doubtless they will stay above .500 – but I don’t think a division title is in the cards here. Between the return of Tom Brady, the tougher 1st-place schedule, and a BRUTAL stretch of 6 away games in 8 weeks from Nov. 1 thru Dec. 20, I don’t see Miami winning 11 games again. In addition, while I’m a Chad Pennington fan, the playoffs proved (again) that he needs help to win. Miami arrived ahead of schedule in 2008 – look for a slight hiccup in 2009, I’ll say 9-7.
New England – 11-5 (2nd), 410 PF (8th), 309 PA (8th): Despite the loss of Tom Brady to a torn ACL in the season opener, New England was a VERY good football team in 2008 – they outscored their opponents by over 100 points, went 11-5, yet missed the postseason. Both of those are very rare, in fact I according to my research, in the wildcard era the 2008 Patriots are the only team to score 100 more points than they allowed yet still miss the playoffs . I’ll go out on a limb and say they are the best team in the last 20 years to miss the playoffs, and with Brady back this year you have to figure they are a good bet to return to postseason glory in 2009. HOWEVER, don’t expect a return to 2007-level dominance, especially on offense. Running back continues to be a revolving door for the Patriots since the decline of Corey Dillon, and this year looks to be more of the same; the aging Fred Taylor was the only RB of note added to the roster. In addition, the offensive line struggled at times last season, and there were no upgrades there either. WRs Randy Moss and Wes Welker continued their stellar play, but an injury to either (or a return to indifference by Moss) would expose their relative lack of depth.
On defense, Bill Belichick recognized the need for youth and acquired a number of players via the draft and free agency. Two veteran CBs in Shawn Springs and Leigh Bodden were acquired to immediately stabilize the secondary, and 3 of their top 4 draft picks also were spent on the defense. The linebacker corps is still a bit old and a bit thin, but it appears that for the first time in several years the Pats have reasonable depth at cornerback. They will need it – after a relatively light schedule last season, their 2009 slate is much more difficult. The good news is most of the tougher matchups are at home – Tennessee, Jacksonville, Atlanta, Carolina, and Baltimore all travel to Foxboro. They will have a few rough games, but overall I think 11-5 or 12-4 is a safe bet for this team. Call it 12-4, but with this caveat: it Brady goes down again, they won’t win NEARLY as often as they did under Matt Cassell last season.
NY Jets – 9-7 (3rd), 405 PF (9th), 356 PA (18th): After the ill-fated Favre experiment, the Jets are in a bit of a transition period, having drafted Mark Sanchez from USC to be their long-term answer at QB. A wise move in the long run, it could mean a bit of a tough season in 2009 unless the recent pattern of rookie QB success (Flacco, Ryan, Big Ben) continues. Lost in all the Favre hubbub, however, is the fact that the defense was very mediocre in 2008, and probably was as responsible for their late-season swoon as Favre was. Jets management realized this and signed LB Bart Scott, CB Lito Sheppard, and two other defensive backs to shore up that side of the ball.
The Jets have the makings of a top-flight defense, and they have a good offensive line – they lack depth at WR, but the real question for this squad is going to be the QB position. If Sanchez or holdover Kellen Clemens can perform above expectations, this could be a playoff team – but if Sanchez looks like a rookie and Clemens looks like the relative flop he’s been since the Jets drafted him, it could be a long season in Jersey. Despite the recent success of young QBs, I’m still not convinced that the NFL has fundamentally changed THAT much, and I’m betting against the rookie QB and against the Jets making a big splash. Call it 7-9, but this is a team that could be very dangerous in 2010 or 2011.
Buffalo – 7-9 (4th), 336 PF (23rd), 342 PA (14th): Given their recent history, it’s tempting to say the Bills will go 7-9 and move on to analyzing other teams – after all, they’ve gone 7-9 the last 3 seasons, and most telling is that they’ve finished in the bottom third of the league on offense 5 of the last 6 years. In today’s NFL, you MUST score to win, and the Bills have been exceptionally bad on offense since 2003. The Bills are trying the quick-fix route by signing Terrell Owens, with the knowledge that his first year with a new team has ALWAYS been successful. However, Owens is now 35, is already dealing with a preseason injury, and is known to quickly tire of losing situations – if Buffalo doesn’t start hot, look for Owens to implode. The rest of the offense, aside from WR Lee Evans, is full of question marks – will Trent Edwards put it all together in his full season, or continue to be annoyingly inconsistent? Will Marshawn Lynch come back strong after serving his 3-game suspension, and can Fred Jackson serve well while he’s gone? The Bills drafted two linemen and signed another, will the line jell in the absence of T Jason Peters?
The defense looks like an average unit – no huge holes, but no real all-pros either. The Bills drafted defense in the first two rounds, time will tell if they found an All-Pro talent there in Penn State’s Aaron Maybin. Overall, though, to me this looks like a very average NFL team, one that would need a lot of breaks to even go 10-6. I think they struggle to make even 7-9 with this schedule and this division, I’m going with 6-10 and T.O. blowing up before Week 10.
NFC EAST
NY Giants– 12-4 (1st), 427 PF (T-3rd), 294 PA (5th): On the surface the Giants appear to have been a dominant team in 2008, and through 12 games that was absolutely true – they were 11-1 and looking like odds-on favorites to repeat as super Bowl champs. Then they finished the regular season with 3 losses in 4 games and capped that by losing their first playoff game, at home, to the Eagles. Which team shows up in 2009, the dominant team of 12 weeks, or the one that stunk down the stretch? As usual the answer lies in the middle – the Giants lost a LOT of talent after the season, including WR Plaxico Burress, RB Derrick Ward, and a bevy of defensive players. They signed a few defenders to replace the departed, and their top draft pick was WR Hakeem Nicks, but typically rookie WRs don’t make much of an impact.
For all the hype, frankly Eli Manning hasn’t had a great career – 55% completions, 98 TDs against 74 INTs – on a lesser team (and with a different last name) those numbers would lead to drafting a replacement. Now, Eli was definitely better last season – 60%, 21 TDs, only 10 INTs – but with favorite target Burress gone his numbers suffered down the stretch. Despite the Super Bowl two seasons ago, I think 2009 is a real crossroads for Eli, a time to show if he can really be a franchise QB without Burress, or if he’s simple a good-not-great QB who has to have an awesome supporting cast to thrive. The rushing attack was great in 2008 but lost a key cog in Ward, and the line has been very fortunate to stay healthy the past 2 seasons. Defensively the giants sould be good, but not quite as good as they were in 2008, especially with coordinator Steve Spagnuolo now the head coach of the Rams. All in all I see a good season for the Giants but not a great one – call it 10-6 with a wild-card berth.
Philadelphia – 9-6-1 (2nd), 416 PF (6th), 289 PA (4th): Like the Patriots, the Eagles were a much better team than their record showed — their point differential was even larger than New England’s. The Eagles seemed to flirt with disaster all season, mixing dominant games with head-scratchers (how do you pound Pittsburgh and tie the Bungles????), but in the end they got hot at the right time, upsetting the Vikes and Giants before losing a close game to the Cardinals (we’ll get to them next week). The talking heads in Philly wanted coach Andy Reid and QB Donovan McNabb gone in mid-December (I was there, training for work) – funny how things change so fast, now the fans are up in arms that Michael Vick was signed to back up McNabb!
Offensively I think McNabb will be fine; the line has been reinforced with the addition of T Jason Peters, and the Eagles have a fine WR corps. The biggest concern is the decline of RB Brian Westbrook. Westbrook turns 30 next week, his receptions declined markedly last week (research shows that a large drop in catches often signals the end for RBs), and he was largely ineffective in the postseason. The Eagles wisely drafted LeSean McCoy as his heir apparent, but time will tell if McCoy is the threat that Westbrook was in his prime. Without such a weapon, the Eagles become much easier to defend – enter Mike Vick. Figure to see Vick running all sorts of spread/Wildcat/gadget plays this season, as the Eagles attempt to get him out in the open field. I have my doubts that Vick will be the answer after a lengthy jail term. Defensively, the Eagles had a large amount of turnover, especially in the secondary with the loss of Lito Sheppard and Brian Dawkins. The biggest loss by far, however, was the cancer-induced passing of coordinator Jim Johnson. Johnson was a genius at picking the right times to blitz, and he will be sorely missed by the Eagles and the NFL.
On balance I think the Eagles lost some talent, but might end up with a better record because of a somewhat easier schedule and a bit better luck. I think the division as a whole is down, and the Eagles are the team to take advantage of that and win 11 games. Call it 11-5 and the division title.
Dallas – 9-7 (3rd), 362 PF (18th), 365 PA (20th): America’s (most overhyped) Team was very mediocre in 2008, though you wouldn’t know it from listening to the pundits. Yes, injuries derailed the rushing attack, but the Cowboys made a lot of their own problems – Terrell Owens, Tank Johnson, Pacman Jones, etc. made Dallas seem like Oakland East there for awhile. To owner Jerry Jones’ credit, after adding all the shady characters didn’t pay off in a playoff berth he shipped them all out. The 2009 Cowboys should be much less controversial, but I think they are also not a very talented team, especially on defense. Dallas lost SIX defensive starters, and only replaced 2 of them via free agency. With no draft picks in the top 2 rounds, getting a difference-maker through the draft this season seems unlikely – and keep in mind this wasn’t a great defense to begin with, finishing in the bottom half of the league.
Dallas will have to outscore opponents this season to stay in the hunt, and I think that QB Tony Romo isn’t up to that task. Romo has had a nice career thus far in Dallas, but he’s consistently failed in big games thus far, and with less receiving talent I expect Romo to struggle a bit this season. I see Dallas falling all the way to 6-10 this season, not the way Jones wanted to christen his new stadium.
Washington – 8-8 (4th), 265 PF (28th), 296 PA (6th): this is a hard team to figure out. On paper, the Skins had a pretty decent offensive year: QB Jason Campbell completed 62% of his passes with a 2:1 TD:INT ratio; Clinton Portis was healthy all season and ran for over 1400 yards at 4.3 yards per carry; Santana Moss caught 79 passes for 1044 yards. The problem was the lack of scoring – all those yards led to only 26 offensive TDs, one of the lowest figures in the NFL. The team finished dead-even in turnover ratio; without more research, I have to figure the team had red-zone issues, and that problem can be very random year-to-year, especially with a good set of RBs like Portis and Ladell Betts. I actually think this offense could be in the top half of the NFL this season as long as they stay fairly healthy and Campbell doesn’t regress.
The defense was very good in 2008, but that’s where more of my concerns lie – they made a big splash by signing DT Albert Haynesworth, and he’s definitely a great addition, but the loss of CB Shawn Springs and LB Marcus Washington will test the defense’s depth. I think this defense will be very stout against the run, but may have issues (especially early on) with pass defense. Former Falcon DeAngelo Hall needs to prove he can CONSISTENTLY make plays, because he will be targeted at CB. However, there’s enough talent on defense to keep the slip from being a big one, and with my predicted offensive improvement I see the Redskins as one of the surprise teams of 2009, winning 10 games and challenging for a playoff berth.
Next week, we’ll tackle the West divisions.
Dave Glass can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.