I’ve been promising a baseball review for a while, and we’ll definitely start that this week with the A.L. – but since I heard something about a big silver cup being won last week, we’ll take one last look at the Penguins’ magical run.
Friday night, the Pittsburgh Penguins established themselves as a dominant team, winning Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals 2-1. It was an unlikely triumph, but then the last four months have been unlikely in so many ways. Pittsburgh overcame obstacles unlike any team in NHL history. They are the first team to overcome two 2-0 deficits en route to a Cup. They clinched every series on the road, and were 4-0 in potential series-clinchers on the road. They overcame big injuries, a late-season coaching change, and the loss of so much talent from the 2008 team, yet still came out on top.
To me, the whole thing is still a bit surreal – make no mistake, this was not a juggernaut-type of team, like the ‘80’s Oilers or even the 1991-1993 Penguins – this team had significant flaws. The power play was mediocre most of the season, the secondary scoring was also hit-and-miss, and Fleury was spotty during the regular season. What made this team special was their ability to overcome their own flaws, and develop a cohesiveness such that the whole exceeded the sum of the parts. This team played SUPERB team defense for almost the entire postseason, especially on the penalty kill. They never, EVER quit in a game, and the only game of the entire postseason that they lost convincingly was Game 5 of the Finals – and they only allowed two goals in the two games that followed.
When I think of this team, sure I think of Malkin’s brilliance and Fleury’s Cup-winning save – but most of all I think of Rob Scuderi. Scuderi is the consummate team player – a brilliant defender, always in the right place, so good at his job that you only notice him when he makes an error. Scuderi knows his role and knows that he’s no scorer, so you RARELY see him score a goal or even get an assist. Players like Scuderi are easy for the casual fan to overlook, because there are no shiny stats, no big hits, no flash – but seasoned fans know that you need players like Scuderi to win. This team was full of Rob Scuderi-type players the last four months – everyone knew their role, everyone played to their strengths and didn’t try to do too much. So much credit for this belongs to coach Dan Bylsma – clearly he pushed all the right buttons after taking over, and was able to get the team to, as he so often said ‘play the right way’. Again I gladly admit my error in criticizing the firing of Michel Therrien, there’s NO WAY this team wins the Cup if Therrien had been retained.
It’s tempting to look ahead to 2010 and wonder about a repeat, to talk about impending free agents and possible acquisitions. But please, let all that wait…championships are rare things, and this one deserves to be savored for the next few months. Regardless of what happens the rest of the summer or next season, flags fly forever, championships are never taken away – and the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins are truly a team worthy of remembrance.
Now, on to baseball, particularly the American League. My AL preview is here, please review that – we’ll take a look at what I’ve gotten right and what I’ve gotten wrong, and what I expect the rest of the way.
In the AL West, I pegged Anaheim for about 88 wins and at 35-29, they are almost exactly on pace – and with their pitching injury woes, I don’t see them breaking out above 90 wins. I had Seattle at 72 wins, and while they are close to .500 now, I think they will continue to sag as the season goes on, particularly if they trade away Erik Bedard.
While I seem to have read those teams correctly, I was WAY off on the other two AL West teams. I had Oakland as a 90+ win team, and they stand 28-37 in distant 4th place. I wildly overestimated their young pitching, and their veteran hitters have by and large underperformed as well. There’s no way Oakland will contend, they are so far behind that I expect them to be sellers at the trade deadline rather than buyers. I also misread Texas’ young pitching, but they’ve OVER performed, particularly in the bullpen. Given that their starters get few strikeouts, I fully expect Texas to come back to the pack in the pitching department..but their hitting might improve, and on balance they look to be a yearlong contender in this weak division.
The AL Central remains as tough to call now as it was during the preseason, as Detroit’s weak 35-31 record leads the way. I had picked Detroit for a .500 record and I’m going to stand by that – they appear to be a team in the middle, too good to completely rebuild yet not good enough for true contention. Minnesota is at 34-34 and they remain my pick to win the division – despite Francisco Liriano’s struggles, I still believe Minnesota has the best pitching in the division, and with the home-field advantage of the Metrodome I expect them to finish with 85-90 wins.
Chicago and Kansas City are both on pace for about 75 wins, which fits with my expectations. KC is still building, and with the emergence of Zack Grienke they could be a darkhorse in 2010. The White Sox, on the other hand, are an aging team that soon will need to rebuild. They’re not out of it yet, but I don’t think they will break .500 this season. That brings us to the Indians, the team many picked to win the division. I was pessimistic because I didn’t like their pitching, and my fears have proven correct – Cleveland has allowed the most runs IN THE MAJORS and sit in last place at 29-39. Between injuries and ineffectiveness, this team will not contend in 2009 and frankly they may need a major overhaul soon, they have underperformed expectations for several seasons now.
Finally the powerhouse division of the AL (and frankly of the entire majors), the East. We had expected three strong contenders and we’ve been surprised to find four excellent teams thus far. The odd team out, as expected, is Baltimore, a team with many talents in the farm system but not yet ready for The Show. At 29-37 they’re on a slightly better pace than the 60-65 wins I had projected, but their pitching has been awful and their runs for/against imply that they might endure a tough second half. 70 wins is probably the upper bound for the O’s.
The defending champions, the Rays, have outscored their opponents by nearly a run per game, tops in the league – yet they are only 35-33, and sit in 4th place, six games back. They’ve been both unlucky and unproductive at times – Pat Burrell has been a disappointment as the new DH, and both B.J. Upton and Dioner Navarro have regressed. LHP Scott Kazmir is injured, and Andy Sonnanstine has been awful. Yet for all that, the Rays have a great chance to contend all season – their other young talent is THAT good. This team is on pace to hit over 200 homers and steal over 200 bases, a very rare feat. In any other division, I’d favor them to easily overtake the pack and win 95 games – but in the AL East, 90 wins will be a struggle given the hole they’ve dug for themselves.
The surprise of the division has been the Blue Jays. Picked by me (and many others) to finish a distant 4th, they started out red-hot and despite a recent cooldown are still in 3rd, only four games out of the lead. However, I think the Jays have already peaked – with the recent injury to ace Roy Halladay, look for the Jays to slowly fall into irrelevance and 4th place. They’ve seen some good developments from the offense in Adam Lind and a rejuvenated Scott Rolen, but it isn’t enough to win this season.
The Yankees have an interesting problem – their new park is a home run haven, essentially Coors Field East. That makes evaluating them very difficult, because like the Rockies the batting totals look better than they really are, while the pitching looks worse. Even allowing for that, though, the Yanks have some pitching issues that they have to solve if they are to catch Boston. Chien-Ming Wang has been horrid, and Andy Pettitte’s numbers make me think he’s close to done. On the other hand, the offense has balance throughout the lineup, and barring injury I predict they will end up as the top offense in the league. Despite their pitching woes they remain only three games back of the Red Sox despite going 0-8 against Boston in 2009. I predict that they will play Boston on something close to even terms head-to-head the rest of the way, and make up those three games against the rest of the schedule. I still think 95 wins is a good guess for them.
Finally we get to Boston, the best team in the AL so far, and a team I picked to fall from the playoffs this season. I thought that their offense would decline with the departure of Manny Ramirez and the decline of David Ortiz. Ortiz hasn’t hit at all, but Jason Bay has done a remarkable job replacing Ramirez, and the other Boston hitters are by and large doing their job. However it’s the Boston pitchers that have the team atop the AL, particularly the bullpen – not ONE Boston reliever has an ERA over 4.00, and their top five relievers all have an ERA of 2.40 or better. The starters have been OK but not great, but the bullpen has more than held up their end. Over the second half the bullpen has to regress, although the starters should pitch a bit better as well. As long as Boston avoids serious injury I expect them to make the playoffs now, they’ve shown more pitching depth than any team in either league. Whether thay can hold off the Yankees is another story, and frankly that will probably be THE story over the next 3+ months.
Next week we’ll review the NL.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.