This past spring, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed CF Nate McLouth to a 2-year contract extension with a club option for a third year. President Frank Coonelly declared that McLouth was one of the team’s core players to build around, along with Paul Maholm and Ryan Doumit. On Wednesday McLouth was traded to the Braves for three prospects. Was this a good deal for Pittsburgh, or just another step in their perpetual rebuilding process? We’ll analyze the deal, and of course check in on the Stanley Cup Finals.
First, let’s break down the trade itself: Pittsburgh traded McLouth for three prospects, two of whom were listed among the Braves’ top-10 by Baseball America. Gorkys Hernandez is a very athletic center fielder whose defense is said to be MLB-ready right now. His bat is still a work in progress; he’s batting .315 at AA but with little power and only moderate plate discipline. He’s only 21, young for AA, and scouts say he has tremendous promise.
Charlie Morton is a right-handed starter who pitched briefly for Atlanta last season and didn’t fare very well – although he was dealing with injuries at the time. He’s dominated AAA this season, including his debut with the Pirates’ AAA team last night (7 shutout innings, 7 strikeouts). He will soon be with the Pirates, probably replacing either Jeff Karstens or Ian Snell in the rotation. Jeff Locke is the wildcard in the deal, a 21-year-old lefty starter with great stuff and no control. He apparently pitched very little in high school and may be a late bloomer – thus far this season at the A-level he’s been inconsistent, but again scouts love his stuff.
Let’s look at McLouth for a minute. He won the Gold Glove last year, but most defensive metrics show his fielding to be average or a bit below. He broke out last season and has hit reasonably well this season, leading the Pirates in HRs and RBI while drawing his share of walks. As I said to someone else today, having Nate McLouth on your team isn’t a bad thing – but if he’s your best player, THAT’S a bad thing. If you look at this coldly and objectively, McLouth is 28, reasonably priced for the next 2-3 years, and quite possibly has already peaked. The Pirates undoubtedly felt they were selling high on him, and management has made no secret of their desire to add depth to what has been a woefully thin farm system. Analysts around the web are split on this deal – some see it as a steal for the Braves, some see it as exactly what Pittsburgh needed to do. Anytime I see this much disagreement over a deal by the ‘experts’, I know it probably isn’t a terrible deal in terms of talent swapped.
This trade is about more than depth, talent, and numbers, however – it’s about faith and hope. Pirate fans have dealt with rebuilding for SEVENTEEN YEARS now, and most took the Bay/Nady trades well last summer, knowing that those players were leaving within a year anyway in free agency. McLouth is different – he had just broken out, just signed an extension, and was a big fan favorite. The fact that management played him up as a core piece only three months ago only adds to the fans’ pain – they ask who they should get attached to, who can they count on staying more than three seasons? It’s a legitimate question in my opinion. The Steelers let players go, sure, after they serve the bulk of their career in the black and gold. The Penguins have signed their key players to long-term deals – and trust me, they won’t be trading Crosby or Malkin anytime soon.
Look, I get it – no player is ‘untouchable’, especially on a team as thin on talent as the Pirates. From a baseball perspective I don’t think it’s a bad deal – despite some fans’ dreamy protestations, McLouth isn’t a superstar and was unlikely to command a huge return. The problem is trust – fans don’t trust that this deal was made for the right reasons, many suspect a salary dump. While I doubt that’s the case, I don’t begrudge fans their cynicism, Pirate ownership has earned it over the years. Pirate brass better hope that at least two of the three prospects pan out, or this will be a trade more reviled by the fanbase than anything since Aramis Ramirez was given away six years ago.
On to a brighter subject – the Stanley Cup Finals. Pittsburgh played much better this season in the first two games against Detroit, but still came home down 2-0. I had said a split in Detroit was crucial, but even down 2-0 I could sense things weren’t nearly as dire as last season – in 2008 it was clear Detroit’s experience was a big factor, they dominated those first two games and Pittsburgh was desperate just to keep things close. This year it’s clear Pittsburgh is the equal of Detroit, and they showed that with two big wins in games 3 and 4.
Game 4 produced a 5 minute sequence I won’t soon forget – Staal’s 1-on-1 shorthanded goal, the Crosby goal off Malkin’s pass on a 2-on-1, and then the amazing pass from Crosby to Tyler Kennedy for the final goal in a 4-2 win. People often talk of turning points in a series or a game after the fact, and many times it’s only obvious in hindsight – but the Staal goal was one of those rare moments when you could tell it was a game-changer as it happened. When Staal got the puck at his own blue line, he hesitated for just a second, looked up and saw the defenseman a bit flat-footed, and decided to push the issue. The strong move he made to the net reminded me of his rookie season and also reminded me of how good the kid will be when he puts it all together.
In 10 Cup Final games against Detroit, that’s the first time I’ve seen the Red Wings truly rattled, running around, not sure how to stop the Penguins. Add in the return to form of goalie Marc-Andre Fleury, and it’s clear that the Penguins are in a great position. With two home games and the probable return of MVP candidate Pavel Datsyuk, the Wings are far from dead – the next two or three games should be the best yet, in a series that has already been very exciting.
There’s been just one problem with this series, really – the officiating. Now, many of you know I officiate sports, so normally I avoid criticizing other officials, but their work in this series has been ABYSMAL. The low point was missing six Penguins on the ice for about 20 seconds of game three – I’ve watched hundreds of hockey games and never seen a more blatantly missed call. In addition, penalties called nearly 100% of the time through the season and playoffs are being ignored, especially hooks and interference. This leads to confusion among the players as to where ‘the line’ is drawn, so they cheat a little, then a little more, then more, then bang! The official decides, arbitrarily, where ‘the line’ is and makes a crucial call at a crucial time. The winning goal for Pittsburgh in game three was an example of this – Ericsson interfered, but many plays just like that had been ignored for almost three full games. Hard to blame him for thinking it was now legal. The bad calls have gone both ways, I don’t see bias, but incompetence is bad enough.
The next time you hear someone say ‘let ‘em play’, remember that’s code for ‘let ‘em cheat’. Hockey (and any sport, really) is at its best when the rulebook is enforced uniformly across all games. The NHL should be embarrassed by the performance of its on-ice officials this series, and hopefully next season the Finals will get called the same as the rest of the season.
Next week – pictures from Game six, and a review of MLB.
Dave Glass lives in Clearfield with his wife, Suzanne, and their six children. He can be reached at buggyracer@verizon.net.