The amazing run of the 2009 Pittsburgh Penguins continued, as they advanced to the NHL conference finals with a Game Seven whipping of the Capitals. They will face another unlikely finalist, the Carolina Hurricanes, in another intriguing matchup. I’ll offer analysis and predictions on this and the western final after we hit on a few odds and ends.
The big news last week in baseball was the suspension of Manny Ramirez for 50 games for using a banned substance. So many acted surprised, but how can you anymore? Who amongst the greatest hitters of the last decade HASN’T been implicated? Furthermore, does it matter? Do we REALLY think football, with its 280-lb. linebackers who can run a 4.4 40, is clean? Yet we watch. Baseball is under a cloud of steroid suspicion, yet we watch. Writers, talk show hosts, and bloggers decry the ‘steroid era’…yet they watch. The game remains as great as ever, and the players are as flawed today as they were 100 years ago. The sooner we stop treating the players as larger-than-life heroes and start accepting that they make mistakes like we do, and are just as likely to make bad choices as we are, the sooner we can all put sports in context – IT’S A GAME.
Maybe you’ve heard that Brett Favre is thinking about ‘unretiring’ again and joining the Minnesota Vikings. A few questions: is this even really news anymore? He does this EVERY SUMMER! Why would the Vikings automatically assume that a 38-year-old QB with a damaged arm is better than their incumbent choices? I have no problem with athletes playing until no one will issue them a jersey – I’d likely do the same in their position. I don’t fault Favre for wanting to play. I DO fault him for this constant flipflopping – jerking teams, fans, and media around each summer. Hopefully this is the last summer we have to hear/see/read about this nonsense. There’s actual news out there to read.
OK, onto the REAL stories – the conference finals!
Detroit (#2 seed) vs. Chicago (#4): The NHL LOVED getting the Pens-Caps matchup, but this one isn’t bad either. These are two of the ‘original 6’ franchises, a rivalry that extends back to 1927! There’s also an ‘old vs. new’ theme here, as Detroit has won 4 Cups in 11 years while Chicago hasn’t even made the playoffs since 2002 and only once since 1997, and hasn’t won the Cup since 1961. Chicago is loaded with young stars long on talent and short on experience, while Detroit’s players are seemingly all in their late-20’s or early 30’s. Soon this will be a changing of the guard, or at least a heated rivalry for several years.
Thus far in the playoffs, Detroit has done what Detroit always does: grind opponents down with relentless pressure, rolling 4 forward lines and utilizing their excellent defense corps to keep the pressure off G Chris Osgood. Anaheim was game, and they certainly pressed Detroit harder than any team has in 2 years, but in the end the Wings’ depth was the difference. Chicago has more or less outgunned Calgary and Vancouver – they’ve fought from behind several times, and frankly they’ve given up a lot of goals but have outscored their own mistakes. I can’t recall ever seeing Roberto Luongo allow 7 goals, but he did in Game 6 to lose the series against the Hawks. Chicago will not have those luxuries against the Wings, they MUST limit Detroit’s chances to stay in this series.
Keys to the series: Detroit is happy playing at even strength. Their power play is great but their penalty kill is weak, plus a highly penalized game negates their depth advantage. Chicago, conversely, can’t match Detroit’s depth but they have seemed to have limitless energy in the postseason. If they can outwork Detroit and force the Wings to take silly penalties, they could score the upset. The key player for the Wings is Pavel Datsyuk, who didn’t score a goal against Anaheim and is either in a major slump or hiding an injury. If he isn’t a factor in this series, Chicago’s chances of advancing are much stronger. For the Blackhawks, G Nicolia Khabibulin was frankly mediocre in the last round. He has to steal at least 1 game to give the Hawks a chance. His save% through 2 rounds is only .896, if that doesn’t climb 15 points the Wings will run over the Hawks. If the ‘Bulin Wall’ struggles early, look for Christobal Huet to get a turn in net, coach Joel Quenville knows that falling behind 2 games to none against the Wings is almost certain elimination.
Predictions: The Hawks are young, fast, and hungry. What they lack is experience. Experience can be overrated, and they’ve proven to be VERY resilient through 2 rounds – but I think they aren’t QUITE ready to unseat the champs. Detroit will have its hands full, but in the end, as they have with so many opponents, the Red Machine will grind down Chicago’s defense over time. WINGS IN SEVEN.
Pittsburgh (#4) vs. Carolina (#6): Things broke Pittsburgh’s way here. While I in no way underestimate the Hurricanes, a very dangerous team, they present a better matchup for the Pens than the deep, tough Bruins would have. Both these teams are essentially playing with house money (as is Chicago) – neither were expected to make any postseason noise when they were struggling in February, and there were doubts as late as the final week of the season that Carolina would even make the playoffs. Yet here they are, one step from ther 2nd Final in 4 years. You know Pittsburgh’s story – I left them for dead when Therrien was fired, and so did many others, but they’ve proven all of us wrong – and in the process showed even more resiliency than last season.
Carolina has now won 4 straight playoff series in 7 games, stretching back to the 2006 Cup run – and this season they’ve scored twice in the last 2:00 to beat Jersey, and in OT to beat the Bruins. Clearly, they aren’t fazed by pressure. Their goalie, Cam Ward, has never lost a playoff series in his career and seems to have an uncanny knack for raising his game in the postseason. Their defense corps, while not massive, is agile and underrated. The also boast a great top forward line with Ray Whitney, Tuomo Ruutu, and (especially) Eric Staal.
However, that also points out their biggest flaw: aside from that top line Carolina really struggles to find offense. Aside from those three, only C John Cullen scored 20 goals on the season. Essentially this is a team with a great top line, a decent second line, and a bunch of grinders. Their defense has taken up some of the slack – their top-4 defensemen combined for 42 goals this season, led by Joe Corvo’s 16 – but clearly shutting down the Staal line will be Priority 1 for the Penguins, a task which may be drawn by Eric’s brother, Jordan.
Special teams, at first glance, appear to be a draw – Carolina has struggled mightily on the power play, scoring only 5 times in 48 chances (10.4%) – making it even more amazing that they were able to beat the Bruins. They’ve made up for their weak PP with a 90.7% penalty kill, by far the best of any playoff team left. Pittsburgh’s power play came alive late in round 2, and has now cashed in 13 of 67 chances (19.4%). They’ve killed penalties at a similar rate, allowing 9 goals on 49 chances (81.6%). The key stat here, though, is the disparity between the power play CHANCES Pittsburgh receives vs. what Carolina has drawn – 67 chances in 13 games for the Pens, only 48 in 14 games for the Canes. This may be a fluke – in the regular season Carolina led the league in power play chances, while Pittsburgh was 4th – but the Pens have forced a LOT of penalties in this postseason, and if that continues it’s a great advantage for Pittsburgh.
Keys to the series: Pittsburgh needs to stay aggressive yet avoid the box, as they’ve successfully done thus far. Pittsburgh received scoring from a lot of different players near the end of round 2, and that must continue. Carolina has received 6 goals from Jussi Jokinen and 4 from Sergei Samsonov – they need to continue to get goals from their non-Staal lines to have a chance in this series. Cam Ward is their MVP, and he has to play like it – Pittsburgh outshot the Capitals badly, and the Hurricanes have averaged almost 32 shots against per game. Ward must continue to shine in the face of Pittsburgh’s potent offense.
Key players: for Pittsburgh I’m going with Malkin and Fleury. Malkin was ok against the Caps but Crosby stole the spotlight – I look for Malkin to grab a headline or 2 in this series. If he struggles, so will the Pens. Fleury also has been ok but not great, and while he doesn’t have to carry the Pens against the Canes, he can’t afford any BAD games. For Carolina, their key players are their defensemen – they can’t count on contributions from all four lines, but their defensemen are mobile and are adept at joining the rush. They must balance that, however, with their defensive responsibilities – Pittsburgh’s transition game is better than either Boston’s or New Jersey’s.
The verdict: it won’t be EASY, but I do believe it will be easier than facing potent rivals in the Caps and Flyers. Carolina has done well, and I respect Ward, but I think his run ends here – and in less than 7 games. Carolina just can’t match Pittsburgh’s firepower, PENS IN SIX, which if I’m correct would set up a very interesting rematch with the Wings.